BC Politics: The Lull Before The Storm, Part II
Wednesday, February 1, 2012 @ 3:45 AM
In the first part of this series (click here for Part 1), we discussed how some powerful political and business establishment forces – including the federal Conservative government in Ottawa and big oil interests in Alberta – were lining up behind the BC Liberals to try to prevent them from being thrown out of office in the May 2013 provincial election. Indeed, despite the current “lull” and the recent polls putting the NDP far ahead of the BC Liberals, this election promises to be one of the most hard fought elections in the history of the province.
There is no doubt that the BC Liberals are in deep trouble. Their “coalition” has been fracturing for some time, and many of their own supporters are disgusted with the BC Liberals over their handling of the HST, BC Hydro, BC Rail, and a host of other issues. One of the results of this fracturing has been a dramatic increase in support for the re-constituted BC Conservatives, with John Cummins as leader. For his part, Cummins has been fiercely attacking the Clark Liberal government on a number of issues.
Various commentators note that such a split in the so-called “centre – right” business coalition will inevitably mean that the NDP will win the next election. And, given the history of BC politics, they are right – but only to a point.
The Clark Liberals have responded to the rise of the BC Conservatives with fierce attacks on Cummins, portraying him as a “rogue” and “parochial” conservative who cannot see the “big picture” and the importance of keeping the NDP out of office. In these attacks, they have been supported by high profile federal Conservatives such as Stockwell Day, Chuck Strahl and Jay Hill. The aim appears to be to “pull the rug” out from under the BC Conservatives in terms of funding and political support, especially from the business community.
But what happens if the BC Liberals are not successful in their efforts to undermine Cummins? Does it mean that the BC Liberals will necessarily lose the election? Maybe. But maybe not.
For one thing, we can expect that the BC Liberals and all their backers, including the federal Conservatives and the Prime Minister himself, the Alberta government, the oil companies, the BC big business establishment, and so on, will wage a “no holds barred” campaign against the NDP and other opponents of the BC Liberals, using every “trick” imaginable. Depending on how effective it is, this campaign could narrow the current NDP lead substantially.
Secondly, if, in the lead up to the election, the BC Conservatives are still in the running for a few seats and are a “spoiler” in others, we cannot count out some kind of dramatic last minute “shift” or “deal” between the BC Conservatives and the BC Liberals to reduce competition (and the resulting “spoiler” effect) between them in particular ridings and divvy up seats. Such cooperation is not without precedent in BC politics, where a coalition government of the two parties existed, in the 1940s and early 1950s, to “keep the socialists out”.
What is important to remember is that the BC Liberals and the BC Conservatives have “bases” of political support (especially in the business establishment, and the federal Conservative and Liberal parties) that overlap. Even now, there is huge pressure, both from within the province and without, for them to “unite” to keep the current provincial government in power. As the election nears that pressure will ramp up even more. At stake are key elements of the Harperite agenda, including the eventual pushing through of the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline.
So getting rid of the current BC Liberal government will not necessarily be a cake-walk. And it requires all of those many British Columbians who want the BC Liberals out to think about how this can be accomplished.
Politics in BC often gets defined on the basis of the two main political parties. But, in fact, politics in the province is much broader than that. For example, in the BC Legislature today, sit two independents: Bob Simpson, MLA for Cariboo North; and Vickie Huntington, MLA for Delta South. In addition, there are a number of smaller parties active in the politics of the province that currently do not have a seat, and a multitude of community organizations and groups focused on particular issues.
And then there are the voters of BC as a whole, the vast majority of whom do not belong to a particular party, but still have political views on issues.
How is all of this opposition harnessed to throw out the BC Liberals? Is it simply a question, as some argue, of getting everyone to vote for the NDP candidate in their riding? Or is it a bigger issue than that?
For example, what about the two independent MLAs, both of whom have been vocal critics of the BC Liberal government? If all the oppositional forces in those ridings got behind them, these two independents would most likely win those ridings again. However, if the vote gets split between independent, NDP, Green, etc., it is possible the BC Liberals might win those ridings. In a close election, these two ridings could be crucial as to who gets to form the next government.
Furthermore, there are a number of smaller parties in the province that are keenly interested in getting the BC Liberals out. Federal NDP leadership candidate, Nathan Cullen, has put forward the idea that federal NDP riding associations could be opened up to include other parties when selecting candidates. Could such an idea of a more “open” nomination be further developed and utilized in the upcoming provincial elections? This could certainly help broaden and unify the opposition, and might mean the election of a few independents or small party candidates to the Legislature, along with the anticipated larger number of successful NDP candidates. Such a result might better reflect voter preferences.
One thing is for sure – victory in the upcoming elections cannot be taken for granted by anyone. And, especially for those fervently opposed to the BC Liberal government and its Harperite saturated agenda, new ways of thinking and new ways of doing things may be necessary to succeed.
(This is the last article in the series).
Peter Ewart is a columnist and writer based in Prince George, British Columbia. He can be reached at: peter.ewart@shaw.ca
Comments
Vote for ANYTHING other then the LIE-berals. It is almost time to OBLITERATE them. I am not NDP but will most certainly be voting for them just to see this LIEberal group of scum gone. Please make sure that you do get out and vote for ANYTHING other then this what we got now. They LIED to us all and WE THE PEOPLE got stuck with HST and are STILL paying it and these lying scums MUST be removed as soon as possible. They do not have the courage to call a election now because they know they are toast. Say what you want Peter but these liars is FINISHED. Does not matter who replaces em just GET RID OF THEM. How can Peter even suggest that they could be re – elected? Really Peter better give your head a shake on that line. The LIEberals is TOAST. They are not going to be re-elected. Oh happy day that will be.
Its a fresh idea. I like that one Peter. Almost like a transferable ballot including a collection of parties on the right or left that nominates a unified candidate of the center for the election. I think it would work, but party control as it is I can not see the party insiders going along with that. Its a great idea though.
I tend to agree that a unified candidate of the center that is nominated through a transferable nomination ballot is the best way to ensure outside influences are not pulling strings behind the curtains of our democracy. I think voters would see the legitimacy in the process and tend to favor those candidates come election day.
Peter, the more of your commentaries I read, the more I like the cut of your jib. Saw Nathan on the debate and he mentioned this same unified prospect and received quite a favorable response.
The liberals have to go! Fortunately they are their own worst enemies and whether they agree with them or not, are seen to be complicit in all of the anti-Canadian decisions being made by the Mad Hatter on parliament hill. It’s obvious Christy is not cut out for this – otherwise she would be smart enough to avoid being seen as Harper’s puppet. Go Christy!
Hopefully there are enough angry BC’ers now that this election will be well-attended. It’s just a shame that there’s no upcoming Federal election. Boy does THAT house need a good cleaning!
Keep up the great work Peter.
Campbell knew, that’s why he high tailed it out of here, but still getting his taxpayers paycheck though. 12yrs. is long enough. Time for any change!
Anybody who still thinks the Libs have a chance is drinking Kool-Aid.
Even if the NDP do get in, I no longer fear them since they can be no worse than what we already have. Reckless spending, useless social programs, ruthless environmental restrictions, high taxes, huge user fees for everything, rampant inflation, corruption, economic devastation – we got all that now so how could it possibly get worse under the NDP? At least they’d take care of the schools & hospitals! Vote Conservative and hope for the best – its what the rest of the province is doing.
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