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October 30, 2017 4:50 pm

Quebec Separating A Non Starter

Friday, September 7, 2012 @ 3:44 AM
Quebec Premier elect Pauline Marois did little earlier this week in fostering the idea that Canada is at the forefront as a solid country with stable government.
 
Her cries for a new beginning for Quebec are simply a call for the people to join her with a view to taking Quebec out of Canada.  If she  wants to reach that goal,  it will be a daunting task.
 
The world investment dealers begin wondering just how solid Canada really is and the division between the French and the balance of Canada simply ramps up at everyone’s expense.
 
Marois received 32% of the popular vote compared to the Liberals 31%, translated that means about one third of Quebec supports her thinking.
 
Marois came up through the ranks as a PQ member, her roots are in trying to push the balance of Canada into believing that if Quebec doesn’t receive yet a larger piece of the pie they will form their own nation.
 
In the past, even the thought of breaking away, was met with horror given that the Canadian Prime Ministers traditionally came from Quebec where they required Quebec support in order to form a majority.
 
Not so in 2012, Prime Minister Harper is a prairie boy, more over from Alberta where at least a minority of the people have long held the belief that it was time to cut Quebec loose.
 
While the notion to cut Quebec out of Canada is held the strongest in Alberta, here again it is soft support with less than 30% of the people holding to that belief.
 
So in the  end, Marois will rattle the sabre, trying to extract more concessions from the rest of Canada only in this instance she will meet head on with a Prime Minister whose support comes from the west and he is unlikely to take the bait.

 

I’m Meisner and that’s one man’s opinion.

Comments

“While the notion to cut Quebec out of Canada is held the strongest in Alberta, here again it is soft support with less than 30% of the people holding to that belief.”

Heck, that’s probably a larger percentage that what it would be if you talked to the average person on the street in Quebec, LOL.

People need to remember that the people of Quebec are incredibly savvy when it comes to politics and they leverage their political power to their absolute advantage. The other Provinces could actually learn a a thing or two from them in those regards.

For the most part, when I interact with people from Quebec, what I see on the other end are people who are incredibly happy to share their unique culture with me. They are very proud of that heritage and anyone who has spent any amount of time in Quebec will know that it IS different there.

People are people and politics is politics. I think the die-hard separatists from years back are in fact dying off. I’ve yet to meet anyone who wants to separate and while I’m sure they are out there, there are also people in the Peace that want to join Alberta, there are people in Western Canada that want to start a new country with the Western States, etc.

Don’t look at the headlines in papers and 30 second video video clips on the news to tell you what’s really going on in Quebec. Take a week or two and head there for a vacation, partake in the culture, meet some people and just talk to them. You’ll probably find many of your Western Canadian perceptions about Quebec are not all that accurate. I found that the first time I visited.

I have listened to Quebec’s threats my whole adult life. Watching the students protest reality the last 6 months gives me zero confidence this will change. Just leave, please.

I can see that you are growing accustomed to a more eastern way of thinking NMG and I say good for you! I am curious whether you thought that way before you moved east.

I think one also has to look at a political map of Quebec. The four ridings across the river from Ottawa voted Liberal and quite strongly so, as did most of Montreal, the western suburbs of Quebec City and even one riding in Trois Rivieres and, of course most of the Eastern Townships.

The real PG strength comes from the hinterland and the poorer sections of urban centres. I think many people forget or do not even know that the PQ is left of the NDP and that distribution matches the political landscape to the social one not much different from any other province I think.
http://www.openfile.ca/montreal/story/electionfile-2012-quebec-election-results

I think the CAQ – Coalition for the Future of Quebec, looks like it will keep the PQ’s aspiration to separate at bay. I see Legault is already making remarks about forcing an early election in the spring of 2013.

When I first came to PG I was surprised at the thinking out here. Mind you, BC is not Alberta. I wonder whether the new look of oil rich Newfoundland/Labrador is going to become as arrogant as Alberta is in the federal system.

That PG should be PQ … LOL

“I have listened to Quebec’s threats my whole adult life”

And I have done the same in the last 20+ years or so with Alberta.

The left, meets the right …. one does not have to bring language into it as far as I am concerned …. it is the culture of the independent rancher put together with the neauveau riche boosted by oil money which they just happen to sit on … clashing with the culture of strong roots in history and family and protection of a way of life.

It is the “me” generation epitomized by Alberta, versus old style conservatism (not the political kind).

You cant by any stretch of the imagination compare Quebec to Alberta. How many referendums has Alberta had?? What is the name of their separtist political party??

I think Canadians are tired of being told if they dont meet certain requests that Quebec will separate. Its much the same as the BS that if you dont vote Liberal in BC the NDP will form the Government, or if you dont vote NDP, you will get four more years of terrible Liberal Government.

If Quebec leaves then all we need to do is settle on the terms of its departure. No big deal. We can visit them as tourists, and we can trade with them, etc; Go or stay who cares.

A Western country made up from Ontario to BC, including the NWT and the Yukon would be one hell of a Country. We would have it all.

Ports, Railways, farming, mining, lumber, oil,fishing, etc;

“I can see that you are growing accustomed to a more eastern way of thinking NMG and I say good for you! I am curious whether you thought that way before you moved east”

I think I’ve always been a pretty open person gus, but in regards to Quebec, nah, I had bought into the “popular opinion” of that subject in Western Canada. I was young, I had never experienced the situation first hand and I listened to people older than me who I thought were wise. Funny thing is, most of them didn’t have first hand experience with the people of Quebec either. When you live in a bubble you never have the opportunity to challenge your own ignorance and you tend to associate your beliefs with reality, even when that isn’t the case.

Leaving PG, in many ways, was one of the best things I could have done. It broadened my horizons, it introduced me to new cultures and experiences and it allowed me to grow as a person. Going through this process does start to influence your opinions, as your prior beliefs about things are either confirmed, altered or negated. Things that were black and white all of a sudden turn grey. Things that were right or wrong may now have an element of “it depends”. Sticking around in one’s bubble may be comfortable, but I don’t think it’s conducive to growing up ;)

“What is the name of their separtist political party??”

Well, unlike Quebec, Albertsa bing Albertsa, their separatist party is rather blatant about it, so they call themselves the “Separation Party of Alberta” (SPA).

But you could have found them yourself, you know, if you were a self starter … … ;-)

http://www.separationalberta.com

According to the site (this goes back 4 years, but nonetheless gives one an idea how deeply rooted the separation thinking is in Alberta):
“An Angus Reid Poll released Feb 20, 2008 for QR77 Radio in Calgary shows that 23% of Albertans believe Alberta would be better off as a country unto itself.”

That is in line with the current thinking in Quebec where a recent poll shows 28% which, I am sure, are not all PQ members.

The mission statement of the SPA? “To ensure the future of Alberta for Albertans by becoming an independent nation separate from Canada”.

Then we have the Cascadia movement on the “left coast” of course …

And the independent movement in California ….

Separation is on the tip of the tongue in many parts of the world, even here. Some achieve it and they seem to be better off for it, others don’t, and they seem to be better off for that. But, until people do it, they will never know.

“We would have it all.
Ports, Railways, farming, mining, lumber, oil,fishing, etc;”

Quebec has all of that in one province.

You forgot oil, gas, potash …. typically separately identified as its own industry, as it should be.

Those are the things Quebec does not have and one of the reasone why there are transfer payments to them. If Alberta did not have oil and gas, there would be transfr paymets to them as well since they would have zip.

Its the luck of the geographic draw, not the ingenuity of the people.

Gus. Equating Alberta with Quebec is just plain stupid. Quebec has been pampered since confederation began and its still not enough. Alberta gives, Quebec takes. Only a Trudeau worshipper can’t see the obvious. Have you ever lived in Alberta? Or are you just self rightous holier than thou progressive.

How about a referendum in the rest of Canada to kick out Quebec?

Gus, all provinces and territories get transfer payments, including Alberta. Alberta may have a small group of separatists but it’s not even comparable to what the rest of Canada has had to put up with from Quebec, and I think we are fed up with it. Good riddance I say.

I realize that all prvinces and territories get transfer payments. The issue here is a category only some provinces get which is the controversial one – equalization transfer.

Of $60.85 billion in transfer payments for 2012-2013 roughly one quarter are for equalization.

Quebec gets 50% of that, with Ontario getting 25% of it with the rest going to Manitoba and the Maritimes other than NL which is no longer receiving equalization transfers since they finally discovered and are extracting God’s hidden oil reserves. ;-)

So BC has natural gas, Albertsa has oil and gas, Saskatchewan has natural gas and potash and possibly some oil, NL has oil.

None of the others have those high energy content resources. As a result of energy costs skyrocketing in the last few decades and especially so again now, the total slice of Canada’s wleath creation pie has changed considerably.

THAT is the real reason for what we are seeing with respect to have and have not provinces. But, hey, no one talks about that reality, do they?

And then the NWT has diamonds …. and we have up to 40% less wood than we used to and or market has done T*Ts up.

The population of Quebec is around 8 million people and let’s say that 75% of them want to remain in Canada (I’ll bet it’s more than that, but let’s just play along). That means that there are roughly 6,000,000 people living in Quebec who do not want to separate.

The population of Alberta is only about 3,750,000 people, or less than the population of greater Montreal. A couple of observations:

1) Based on population alone, the metropolitan area of only Montreal should have greater political clout than the entire Province of Alberta (not what cowboys would want to hear I know).
2) Roughly 30% of Montreal’s population does not speak French as their mother tongue, population counts which would roughly equal the total metro populations of Edmonton or Calgary. I wonder how many people were aware of that?
3) With roughly 6,000,000 people living in Quebec who do not want to separate, that means they have roughly twice as many proud Canadians living within their borders as Alberta does. Heck, it means they likely have more than all of the Prairie Provinces combined. Imagine that!

So now what?

Quebec has hydro,forestry,mining,manufacturing,agriculture. They also have natural gas but have chosen not to develop. Leave it in the ground so they won’t lose equalization. Quebec is the author of there having recieved equalization from inception. They have driven investment away with their fixation on language, seperation and crushing taxes. If Quebec had oil reserves,they would screw that up as well.

Thats the reality nobody talks about.It has nothing to do with geology.

The fact that there are massive readily accessible oil deposits beneath the surface of the earth in the area presently occupied by the Province of Alberta has nothing to do with geology?

Right. And the fact that sockeye salmon, halibut and prawns swim in the Pacific ocean is a direct result of the ingenuity of the people of British Columbia.

“They also have natural gas but have chosen not to develop. Leave it in the ground so they won’t lose equalization”

Linking the non development of natural gas in Quebec with the possibility of loss of loss of equalization payment is not more than a very prejudicial ethnic statement. But then again, you likely would not even understand that notion because that is the way you and some others on here are used to viewing the world, I have noticed. I think you enjoy ethnic slurs.

Of course in you world, the fact that a combination of the increased cost of energy, the reduction of “conventional” accessible deposits of oil and gas, combined with new methods of fracking, and the concern of many communities outside of the province of Quebec with an unproven technology which may be associated with a yet unknown level of risk of contaminating underground water sources has nothing to do with some opposition. No, of course not. It all has to do with the potential of equalization payments.

For others who have not yet formed their opinion on the finding of natural gas deposits in the St. Lawrence basin that may now be accessible, they may find these sites helpful.

From 2 years ago, an article in the Globe and Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/exploration-for-natural-gas-causes-consternation-in-quebec/article4326809

“In most places west of Manitoba, the arrival of yet another oil or gas drilling rig is cause for little notice or concern. In Quebec, a half dozen gas wells and the potential of hundreds more may be about to set off a new kind of identity crisis.

Quebec has long nurtured an image as a green-energy titan, relying on hydro and sneering at those other energy producers in the West, with their smelly, polluting oil and gas.”

Sounds reasonable to me, writing from a province which has decided not to pursue off-shore drilling explorations at this time and is concerned about shipping bitumen across the province in a pipeline built and maintained by a company note exactly known for its safety record.

The site of Junex a Quebec based natural gas exploration and development company.
http://www.junex.ca/natural-gas-quebec

“From the moment a major gas discovery is made on our territory, it appears normal to us to produce this resource here instead of continuing to import it from western Canada. By doing so, not only will supplies be secured, but it will automatically result in a shift from Alberta to Québec in value creation associated to our own gas consumption.”

Strange words coming from a province which just loves to maximize it equalization payments.

Ben is wrong when he calls Harper a prairie boy. Far from it. Maybe a wannabe prairie boy for political considerations, but that’s about it.

Harper grew up in greater Toronto and only moved to Calgary to get involved in his brand of politics and attend university there. The man has spent the majority of his life in Ontario as a youth and later as a member of parliament. He has never lived in a rural area much less worked a farm. His only private employment is with oil companies in the city. The man is as far as you could get from being a prairie boy when calling yourself from Calgary IMO.

Separatism is the wrong word to use when describing Quebec politics. Its amateurish IMO and reflects more Alberta ignorance than it does thoughtful analysis of Quebec realities.

Sovereignty is the correct word that describes the Quebec political environment. The majority in Quebec support (free enterprise) sovereignty and that all comes down to how one interprets the rights of ones legislative assembly to determine their own unique society and its future… and that my friends is the strength that makes Canada possible in the first place.

So in the real world its Quebecs consistent stance on sovereignty that ensures Canada has a future. Those that play politics with it are the real threat to Canadian unity (ie Harper, Chretien ect).

How Quebec organizes their society should be their business, just as they should not have a right to dictate ours.

The provincial sovereignty is well recognized in the Canadian constitution supported by the Westminsister Act, and reinforced by the Canadian Supreme Court (1981). It is what defines in great part the biggest difference between a Canadian province in relation to its federal government as opposed to our counterparts in the United States where they have limited sovereignty that was extinguished (ie natural resources such as oil and gas developments) when the Yankees won the civil war.

For a Canadian province it looks to an American state and their limited sovereignty and most would say no way would we want to leave Canada and risk losing these gifts of provincial sovereignty that our Mother country Great Britain endowed on us to keep our loyalty at their time of great need. Quebec was instrumental in this history of our sovereign rights and its a proud legacy they take seriously (and BC use to take seriously prior to the BC liberals).

It is only natural that Quebec would have politics that is highly charged by the questions surrounding sovereign rights. The tension comes when they try to mix these natural tendencies for sovereign rights with personal rights of individuals that shows a lack of dignity for the non-francophone and therein lies the problem.

Quebec elected a racist and that is the real issue here.

Quebec elects a racist bigot and Gus accuses me of an “ethnic slur”. Thats rich.
Though not uncommon from a Federal Liberal.Ever Wonder why Liberals are a non entity in this country? Look at Gus. He’s the posterchild of an arrogant elitist that has held this country back for generations. Find a life Gus, preferably one based in reality.

“Quebec elects a racist bigot and Gus accuses me of an “ethnic slur””

The two are not mutually exclusive.

A very poor avoidance of addressing the facts of the economics of today’s Canada, the continuing loss of the creation of value added products and increasing reliance on selling off feedstock to be processed further in other countries.

Your blind rage is digging you deeper into the same category that I put Marois, a racist bigot as you called her and I am in agreement with.

You don’t debate economics with someone who views the NEP as just policy or who thinks that Quebec has just had 50 years of bad luck to explain there dependence on equalization. There’s just no point.

“You don’t debate economics with someone who views ….. “

I have noticed that you have this uncanny habit of attributing opinions, characteristics, habits, etc. to the general.

For instance, you would never say “I don’t debate economics with someone who views …”

You do not have much self confidence, do you? Because of that, you have to find support by pretending to associate yourself with an imagined general population.

What you are actually saying with that statement is that you will not debate anything with anyone who has a different opinion. Sort of reminds me of the spoiled child who has a temper tantrum in the store because she does not get her way.

In my view equalization payments are inequitable. That is a strange notion, isn’t it, that payments meant to equalize benefits derived from taxation income actually do not? I would not be surprised if the majority of people in Canada who understand how they are actually calculated would agree with that statement.

In fact, there was a modern report that says as much about Ontario and BC. While produced under a Liberal Government it was suppressed by a Conservative Government. The issue appears to be a sensitive one and a bipartisan issue.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1121339–ontario-shortchanged-in-wealth-sharing-system-censored-federal-report-suggests

“Its conclusion: Ontario and B.C. lose out because it’s much more expensive to operate in those provinces. Conversely, Quebec and the Maritimes, where the cost of living is cheaper, reap disproportionate benefits.”

This table identifies the inequity in another fashion. The first figure is the GDP per capita (2010). The second is the per capita benefit of equalization payments (2012). The table is sorted in increasing order of GDP.

PEI
$34,937 $2,350
NS
$38,475 $1,342
NB
$39,117 $1,985
QC
$40,394 $934
MB
$43,950 $1,353
BC
$44,847 –
ON
$46,303 $246
NL
$55,213 –
SK
$60,878 –
AB
$70,826 –
Average$47,605

So,
1.even though BC has a lower GDP/capita than Ontario, we do not receive equalization payments while Ontario does.

2.Even though Quebec has a lower GDP/capita than Manitoba (almost 10% lower), Manitoba receives more money per capita than Quebec (about 40% more per person)

3.The same is true for Nova Scotia, which receives considerably less than New Brunswick, even though their GDP/capita is lower.

The fact about the Canadian system of equalization payments is that over its history it has had many attempts at adjusting it.

Finally, so that we all understand who benefits the mot from equalization, here is the list from the most to the least per capita.

PEI$2,350
NB$1,985
MB$1,353
NS$1,342
QC$934
ON$246

Can anyone tell me why Quebec gets hit so hard about equalizatin payments when 4 other provinces, including Manitoba, actually receive more per capita?

“Can anyone tell me why Quebec gets hit so hard”

Constantly acting like the spoiled entitled child of confederation might have something to do with it.

I guess you have never raised a family of children with different attributes.

The Nation has decided to adopt its family of “children”. In fact, there were some real squabbles over that process of “adoption”.

Now the Nation does not want them? Family Services would not be happy.

Like someone else noted, I’ve been hearing Quebec’s woes most of my life.

And like any spoiled brat, you just get tired of hearing them after a while, and you don’t care if they leave.

Many of my comments have certaily been more sharp than yours. But my opinions are based on my perception of fairness in confederation. Your post of “Alberta arrogance ” makes you my natural enemy. Quebec is a taker. They have had PM’s run our country my whole life. How is that possible? We now have a “westerner”, whatever that means, in control and you crap on him as a intolerant redneck. Out west we are used to this. My “ethnic slur”, as you called it is based on my expierence. I don’t need to post a link to confirm I’ve been taken for granted as a Canadian to apiese Quebec politics.

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