2013 Looks Promising for B.C. Says Economist
Tuesday, October 23, 2012 @ 4:00 AM
Prince George, B.C. – For the Royal Bank’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Craig Wright, the next year looks pretty good for B.C.’s economy.
Speaking to a gathering of investors in Prince George, Wright says the economic forecast shows the “Best is the West, and then there’s the rest”. He is referring to the predicted economic growth in Saskatchewan, Alberta and B.C. in 2013.
While he predicts B.C.’s gdp will grow by 2.7% next year that is still below the 3% that was seen in 2010.
The good news for Canada, and B.C. is that despite a high ratio of income to household debt, “Canadians pay their mortgages and their bills as long as they have a job and the employment situation looks very steady.” Wright says he expects the housing market to cool somewhat in Vancouver which will have an impact on the overall B.C. stats, however, the rest of the province remains affordable. He is forecasting housing starts will ease to about 23 thousand province wide.
The Canadian dollar could be in the $1.05 U.S. range next year which is great news for importing machinery and manufactured goods, however, he is aware that will create some challenges on the export side of the ledger. Still, he points to positive signs, such as the slow recovery of the U.S. housing market and the fact lumber exports to the U.S. are up 25% this year over the same period a year ago.
Wright says there will be job growth, but the big challenge for B.C. will be to attract the best and the brightest.
Wright’s forecast for B.C.:
|
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013 (f)
|
|
GDP
|
3%
|
2.9%
|
2.3%
|
2.7%
|
|
Employment
|
1.7%
|
0.8%
|
1.8%
|
1.5%
|
|
Unemployment
|
7.6%
|
7.5%
|
6.8%
|
6.6%
|
|
Retail Sales
|
5.4%
|
3.1%
|
4.6%
|
4.2%
|
|
Housing Starts
|
26,479
|
26,400
|
27,300
|
23,000
|
|
CPI
|
1.4%
|
2.3%
|
1.4%
|
1.2%
|
Wright waded into the Northern Gateway proposed pipeline issue from a purely economic point of view. “From a Canadian context we need more access to global markets, so for pipeline activity it’s east, west and south.” But having said that, Wright adds “obviously there are a whole lot of issues that have to be dealt with, it has to be done properly and I can’t imagine it being done with one region taking all the economic and environmental risks while another gets all the financial rewards.”
He was also questioned about the U.S. election and which of the two candidates would have a more positive impact on the American economy. Wright says neither Obama nor Romney have offered any real details on their fiscal policies, but one thing is clear, whoever gets into the Oval Office will have to take some action to prevent the U.S. from falling over the “fiscal cliff” and into a recession.
Comments
Is this supposed to be after the HST is finaly extinguished? I didn’t see anything mentioned about it in this article. Must be what the author is talking about though. HST is supposed to be extinguished for us. however I won’t believe it till I see it. Oh well I just keep shopping elsewhere Alberta or on line or go to USA. Either way they get almost NO HST from me. Will be great when the HST is finally extinguished along with the all the liberals. The damage they inflicted on this province is terrible. Can’t get here soon enough for me.
As soon as the HST is removed in 2013, we will be back to PST and GST, likely for a total of …..(drum roll please)….. 12% …..
And this will make a major change?
mattyc. As it now stands the HST is to be extinguished on April 1st 2013.(April fools day) The date is especially significant, because it describes very well those who were responsible for bringing in the tax.
I cannot see any reason why this tax will not disapear. As far as I know all the necessary legislation has been passed.
In any event with an election in May 2013 we can probably count on the tax going. The Liberals and Corporations have managed to make Billions on this tax during the time it was in, which is why they kept it in as long as possible.
Gus,. The tax will go back to what it was before they changed it, so of course we will have PST and GST on those items that originally had it. Ie; 7% and 5%. for a total of 12%. No one ever argued about that portion of the tax.
The argument has always been about the 110 items (more or less) that were not subject to the Provincial Sales tax of 7%, but were subject to it, with the implementation of the HST. This is where the Government stood to make $800 Million per year on additional taxes, and of course the additional money collected over and above the $800 Million went to offset the loss of taxes that the Government stood to lose from Business and Corporations who (expecially those who exported their product) no longer had to pay PST.
As mentioned many many time before. You could not have the Government get additional taxes of $800 Million per year, and business and corporations saving $1.6 Billion dollars per year, without the Government recouping their loss’s through taxing those items that were at one time exempt from the PST.
Reverting back to the old system will require business and corporation to once again pay thier (fair) portion of taxes, and all will be well in La La Land.
The implementation of the HST, could be considered akin to a card shark, or a carnival busker, trying to separate you from you money. It was all smoke and mirrors to get the intended results, which were to fleece the BC Taxpayers once again, however they got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, and got a sound **spanking**. Did they learn anything?? One can only hope so.
The HST is the least of our worries! We can not grow our economy fast enough to support entitlement programs and the public sector! Taxes will have to go up, and it will have to be heavy to the personal side!
‘The implementation of the HST, could be considered akin to a card shark, or a carnival busker, trying to separate you from you money. It was all smoke and mirrors to get the intended results, which were to fleece the BC Taxpayers once again, however they got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, and got a sound **spanking**. Did they learn anything?? One can only hope so.’
That is beyond ridiculous. The implementation of the HST was sound fiscal policy, but it was handled extremely poorly politically.
Did the government present the case for a harmonized sales tax clearly? No, of course not.
Does that mean that the HST was a bad idea? No, of course not.
All of this talk of ‘card sharks’ and ‘carnival buskers’ and ‘hands in the cookie jar’ is beyond ignorant, and plain stupid.
Rocky, it is a fact that the move to the HST was an enormous shift in the tax burden from the corporate sector to the populace. Was this a bad idea? Yes, of course it was.
Does this mean that the HST was a bad idea? Yes, of course it does.
All this talk about “sound fiscal policy” is beyond ignorant and just plain stupid.
Sorry, couldn’t help myself . . .
Lets hope the economists are right in these figures.
“All of this talk of ‘card sharks’ and ‘carnival buskers’ and ‘hands in the cookie jar’ is beyond ignorant, and plain stupid.”
It is Palopu’s way of getting his digs in.
I have my ways of getting digs in ….
And you have your way of getting digs in rocky……
Take, for example, “the implementation of the HST was sound fiscal policy” … sure, according to you and others who believe in regressive taxes….. not according to those who do not.
Economists being right …… that is the problem, too many these days are right ….. but very few, as a result, are correct. ;-)
“Did the government present the case for a harmonized sales tax clearly”
Interesting to note that people generally agree on that but that very few provide an opinion as to why …..
I have a hypothesis ….. they did not present it clearly because they went with the flow rather than understanding it.
Those who understand a concept will be able to present it clearly. Those who do not will mess up their presentation when challenged.
They should have kept the HST and ditched the useless carbon tax.
They could have kept the HST and exempted those items which were previously exempted from the PST.
Fuel is exempt from the extra 7%, it is only 5% HST. If they can deal with the exemption on fuel, they could do it on other things too. The story that it would be too complicated just doesn’t wash.
One of the worst increases was on vehicles bought privately, and that is going to remain at 12%.
Agreed my2bits. Even if the exemption on things like haircuts and kids clothing remained, I don’t think Joe and Jane average would have gotten quite as upset over the HST.
“One of the worst increases was on vehicles bought privately, and that is going to remain at 12%.”
You got that right. Now that cities are designed for transportation by car, to be without a car is extremely difficult.
Hired by the Liberals no doubt, an election coming. I’m seeing the commercials on TV already on just how fine BC is coming along. Funny how the Liberals are the only ones allowed to adverise and use our money on top of it.
The carbon tax is keeping sea levels from rising, among other things. And it is definitely slowing global warming. Just look around ya.
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