“Dave”, with the Outdoor Ice Oval Society, says “the next couple of days look good for the oval staying open.

—-

Name changed to protect his anonymity? :-)

Dave’s not here man.

High of 0 was forecast. At the moment it appears to be +4 at the airport.

Safe bet that this will be the warmest January, for average daily mean temperature, on record.

Saskatoon is gearing up for one if the coldest!!!!

Of…

Gotta love autocorrect

Record high temperatures outnumbered record lows by two to one across the continental US over the past decade. Experts predict record highs will increase over record lows in the coming decade.

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/1036/record-high-temperatures-far-outpace-record-lows-across-us

Man, people#1 and thunderboltz just spout these things off without any research…

Pre 1975 hard to get good data from the airport but after that date:

1976 mean high +3, mean -6, mean low -21, lowest temp -23
1981 mean high +7, mean -3, mean low -12. lowest temp -17
1983 mean high +3, mean -5, mean low -18, lowest temp -18
1984 mean high +4, mean -4, mean low -20, lowest temp -23
1986 mean high +6, mean -3, mean low -18, lowest temp -22
1987 mean high +4, mean -4, mean low -12, lowest temp -18
1992 mean high +6, mean -1, mean low -7, lowest temp -9
2001 mean high +4, mean -4, mean low -14, lowest temp -19
2006 mean high +4, mean -2, mean low -7, lowest temp -10
currently in 2014 we are sitting at mean high +2, mean -4, mean low -13, lowest temp -17

(all temps in celcius and from the month of January, from Prince George airport data)

The problem with your data slinky is that it is cherry picked for only certain years dating back to only 1976.

The real average daily temperature for the month of January is -9.5 degrees Celsius, the daily maximum average temperature is -5.9 degrees Celsius, while the average daily minimum temperature is -13.1. These temperatures are calculated using January temperatures from 1971 to last year.

These stated January temperatures are more in line with the historic to present temperatures for January.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/canada/climate2/Prince%20George%2015NW.html

Here is another weather site source that supports the January averages stated in my previous post:

“On the other hand, the coldest time of year in Prince George (British Columbia) is in January when it is -9.55°C / 14.8°F on average, but could get down to -13.6°C / 14.8°F minimum.”

http://www.world-climates.com/city-climate-prince-george-british-columbia-canada-north-america/

Cherry picked? I picked years that the data showed a average temperature above the ‘daily maximum average’ of -5.9 (6) or higher for the month of January – I didn’t skip any that I know of which would be cherry picking the data. Already stated that the airports data gets spotty and ‘lost’ pre 1975 so not accurate for recording a mean temp, although they do have records to 1972 that I can access.

All the years listed the mean January data is higher than the average you spout. To say this year 2014 will be the “warmest January, for average daily mean temperature, on record” one has to look at other Januaries in the past and see if it is on track to being just that. 1992 looks like it is carrying the torch with a average daily temp of -1 through the month of January, which is 4.9 degrees higher than the ‘maximum average’.

“On the other hand, the coldest time of year in Prince George (British Columbia) is in January when it is -9.55°C / 14.8°F on average, but could get down to -13.6°C / 14.8°F minimum.”
————————-

How is it possible for -9.55 and -13.6 degrees celcius to be the same -14.8 fahrenheit?

What you meant to say is:
“This January will be higher than the maximum average temperature for January, but it shares that distinction with at least 8 other years in the last 40.”

Nope… what I meant to say was;”Safe bet that this will be the warmest January, for average daily mean temperature, on record.”

Here is another weather site source that supports the January -5.5 average and -13 minimum average temperatures for Prince George.

http://weatherspark.com/averages/28426/1/Prince-George-British-Columbia-Canada

Posted by: People#1 on January 19 2014 6:28 PM Nope… what I meant to say was…

If you have no idea what you are saying then how is anyone else supposed to figure out what you are saying?

To have an average you have to have some years higher and some years lower than that average. Not every year is below the average or that wouldn’t be the average…kapish?

Slinky you’d have a better conversation with an inanimate object.

Slink; I think most of us are having a hard time translating all those + (plus above freezing) mean high temperatures you listed into the -5.9 Celsius average high temperatures for January in PG.

Here is yet another source that states a January average high of around -5.9 Celsius, an average of around -9.5 and an average low of around -13 Celsius.

[url]http://www.prince-george.climatemps.com/january.php[url]

Maybe it is time to look at refrigerating the oval. Halifax went down this route a few years ago, and found that an oval constructed next to an existing rink, could be built for less than a million. Given that the oval is already built, perhaps some research could be done to see how much it would cost exactly? The report done by Halifax can be read here:

http://www.halifax.ca/facilities/CFMP/documents/CouncilReport-OutdoorRefrigeratedRinks.pdf

With refrigeration you would be looking at an 18 week season, from November until March. Recreational skating could be maintained up to 10 degrees celsius.

Here is a link to used refrigeration equipment that is listed at $89,000

http://www.chilleroutlet.com/list/rinks/refrig/CO380.htm

I agree herbster, it is time to start looking at outdoor refrigeration for the oval, because we are not going to be getting those normal average winter lows anytime soon!

OK peep, here is how things go

There is a high temperature and a low temperature for each day

This high, along with all the other highs have a mean (average) over the entire month – that is a “mean high”

This low, along with all the other lows for the month has an average (mean) over the entire month – that is the “mean low”

The days has an average temperature, so does all the other days of the month. This number is between the high and the low for the day. Not exactly in between as the day may have all -10 temps and one hour of -5 doesn’t mean the average temperature is 7.5 but closer to -9. That is a “mean”

Each month has a lowest temperature reached some time during that month. That is the “lowest temp”

So recap – each day/month/year has a average (mean) high temperature, average (mean) temperature, and average (mean) low.

So: “year” “mean high” “mean” “mean low” “lowest temp”

Your link says on average January has a mean high of -5.9 and a mean of -9.5 and a mean low of -13

Your link would read:
1971-2013 mean high -5.9, mean -9.5, mean low -13, lowest temp n/a

That means there are temperatures below all three of these values and temperatures above which average out to these temperatures in your link.

What you are stating is that “this January will be the highest average (mean) on record” which in the case you linked to is -9.5 degrees celcius on average (mean) over 42 years, but the highest average (mean) is based year per year.

And for example 1992 had a average (mean) of -1 and this month is shaping up at a average (mean) to date of -4.

What that means is so far we are not the highest average (mean) temperature on record if things remain as they are for the remaining 2 weeks

I don’t know how to put it any simpler

I have taken and passed calculus mathematics, I have also taken and passed college level statistics courses. I know the difference between “mean” and “average”.

Try using a scatter plot with a total eleven data points, five of those data points will be higher, and five will be lower the one between these will be the “mean”. Add those eleven(11) total data set and divide by eleven (11) ill get you your average! I don’ know how much simpler I can explain it to you!

What we seem to have a difficult time swallowing is your cherry picked temperature numbers from the PG airport, trying to make it look like the above average(or mean)temperatures we are having are normal, which they are NOT!!!

The “normal” average for a high in January is -5.9 Celsius, the average is -9.5 and the average low is -13 degrees Celsius. Can I make this any simpler for you!

Well, I’d like to offer my opinion, but sadly unlike some People#1, I’m not an expert on global warming or climate change, nor am I an expert on child poverty and now child obesity!

I’m not sure how I will sleep tonight knowing how uninformed, ill informed, uneducated and insignificant I and my opinions are!

Actually, I do know! I think that as always I’ll sleep pretty darn well as I’m obviously not as wound up as some People#1!

Ok, let the condescention begin!

Oops, that would be “condescension”!

My goodness, my lack of education is already showing! Glad that I caught my spelling mistake before the more intelligent People#1 on this site pointed it out to me, haha!

Slinky wrote: “currently in 2014 we are sitting at mean high +2, mean -4, mean low -13, lowest temp -17”

Slinky stated that it was for the airport.

Here is the daily chart for January 2014 at the airport in Prince George, BC, Canada (YXS)
http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=BC&StationID=48248&dlyRange=2009-11-27|2014-01-17&Year=2014&Month=1&Day=1

The highest daily maximum was on January 15, 2014 at 6.5C

The lowest daily minimum was January 5, 2014 at -16.3C

The highest daily mean was on January 15, 2014 at +2.5C

The lowest daily mean was on January 5, 2014 at -12.8C.

The averages for daily mean highs, lows and means for January to date were: -0.1C, -7.2C and -3.7C

Can you please post the page you were taking your data from. Mine was from the Government of Canada station located near the south west of the main runway.

Think you need to go back to school if you can’t see that every year does not have the same average high temperature. -5.9 is your average mean HIGH of which all the 10 years listed above are in the +’s for this stat, I did not list all of the ones below +3 as a daily mean high just concentrated on the mean which you list as -9.5 because that is what you base your ‘bet’ on.

But this year is not turning out to be the “warmest January, for average daily mean temperature, on record”. To get there we have to beat out 1992 with a daily mean of -1 (for January), 2006 with a mean of -2, 1981 and 1986 with a mean of -3. We are currently tied for 5th place with 1984, 1987, and 2001 since the airport has kept daily records (and those records are digitized)

Just like your ‘bet’ on rain for every month in the winter when that in fact is a very safe ‘bet’ as rain in the winter is normal when you look at the stats

Gus, the mean does not take into consideration 2 days, it takes all the days of the month to produce a mean

So I threw out an obvious error just to see if anyone knows what’s what! I define “mean” as “median”. Oh well, not that slinky and Hart Guy would know the difference anyway;-)

Haha, People#1 you are so funny!

Some might not realize that you define “mean” as “median’, but I’m sure that most realize what the difference is between being “mean” and being “nice”!

In the relatively short time that I have been aware of this site, I have formed my own opinion that you are a bit of a know-it-all and a bit of an Opinion 250 bully. Sadly, most bullies don’t know the difference between mean and nice! And so, in defense of all of us less intelligent members of this site, sometimes I like to crank you up! It usually doesn’t take much!

I’ll end my visits here tonight by reminding you that there have been a number of times in the past that I and others have presented you with well thought out and reasoned questions, questions that you were either unwilling or unable to answer, especially when faced with “facts and truths” that clearly illustrate the error in yours!

Now go play nice!! Nighty night!

It’s not often Hart Guy posts to this discussion board, but when he does, his comments continue to be directed at me. Obsessive attraction, like a moth to a flame, careful you don’t get “burned” again HG.

Anyway, enjoy this spring like weather we have been having, everyone :-)

Gus, as averages go:

We are still below:
1992 2 max, -1 mean, -3 min
1981 1 max, -3 mean, -6 min
1986 1 max, -3 mean, -6 min
2006 1 max, -2 mean, -4 min
2001 0 max, -4 mean, -8 min
2014 0 max, -4 mean, -8 min
1984 -1 max, -4 mean, -7 min
1987 -1 max, -4 mean, -8 min

we are tied with 2001 0 max, -4 mean, -8 min for the highest average max

But for the average mean:
1992 leads with -1, then 2006 with -2, 1981 and 1986 with -3, 1984 and 1987 and 2001 and 2014 (to date) all show -4.

for ‘averages’ this month it shows 0 max, -4 mean, -8 min

The post way up there is mean max, average mean, and mean min – max mean is derived from the max/max and max/min, the min mean is derived from the min/max and the min/min

Or in english: the lowest daily high and the lowest daily low produces a mean minimum. The highest daily high and the highest daily low produces a mean maximum.

The old days it did not keep track of decimal points in the thermometer data so to be fair to the data you have to use the same dataset types. For example Jan 18 the high was 1.9 but in terms of data it is 2 (as far as I know)

Does not matter that the average mean is -9.5 according to people#1, what matters is the average mean annually by the ‘bet’ which puts us tied for 5th since 1975

Not an opinion, just presenting the data calculated by the same weather source

I asked what the weather record source is. I know the meaning of the stat expressions, thanks.

I am working with the station at the north-west end of the airport main runway which has been recording since the summer of 1942 and stopped in November 2009 when the automatic station to he south-west of the main runway was operational.

I am not finding numbers consistent with yours, close but not quite the same.

Peeps, if you so threw in the definition of median to try and see if anyone would catch it (yeah right) then why don’t you give us the calculation for mean daily temperature. It is not the same as average, nor is it the same as median, nor is it the same as mode. And don’t peek at my post above for your answer.

Don’t blow a gasket Gus Lukas, your data should show holes in the 70s, their data starts in 1973. didn’t see you posting your links btw

But here, I will be nice since your google obviously isn’t working

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYXS/2013/1/19/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Thanks for the info. I do not blow gaskets …. I just like people to give their source and I will tolerate stupid people only so long. If you want to write with some authority, then get quality data.

My source is given in my post at January 19 2014 9:52 PM.

Weatherunderground is a useless tool.

I use environment Canada data. If you would take the time to go to my link you would see I use the stations at the airport. One has been reporting since 1942. There are very few holes in that data.

Here is the data from the station to the northeast of the main runway at YXS

I have taken the winter months and determined the
1. average mean high in Celsius
2. average mean low
3. average mean temperature

42/433.2-7.4-2.1
43/443.4-6.1-1.4
44/450.6-7.8-3.6
45/464.2-5.7-0.8
46/472.2-7.8-2.8
47/481.8-8.3-3.2
48/490.5-10.5-5.0
49/501.3-9.3-4.0
50/51-0.1-11.2-5.7
51/524.2-7.4-1.6
52/53-0.1-9.7-4.9
53/541.6-7.7-3.1
54/553.5-6.1-1.3
55/56-0.2-10.9-5.5
56/570.1-10.3-5.1
57/583.2-5.7-1.2
58/595.3-4.70.3
59/604.1-5.7-0.8
60/615.2-4.10.6
61/623.9-6.9-1.5
62/635.4-4.40.5
63/644.4-4.5-0.1
64/652.2-8.0-2.9
65/663.5-6.3-1.4
66/673.4-6.4-1.5
67/685.7-4.30.7
68/692.0-8.5-3.2
69/702.6-6.2-1.8
70/711.3-9.2-4.0
71/721.7-8.6-3.5
72/734.9-5.5-0.3
73/744.3-5.5-0.6
74/753.4-7.1-1.9
75/764.1-5.8-0.8
76/773.6-4.8-0.6
77/782.7-6.9-2.1
78/791.6-8.5-3.5
79/802.8-7.3-2.3
80/813.2-5.5-1.2
81/822.2-8.2-3.0
82/833.6-5.5-1.0
83/844.6-4.70.0
84/852.8-6.6-1.9
85/862.8-6.3-1.8
86/873.1-6.0-1.5
87/882.2-6.5-2.2
88/890.5-9.4-4.5
89/906.7-3.11.8
90/911.4-8.3-3.4
91/925.4-3.41.0
92/933.0-6.5-1.8
93/944.4-5.2-0.4
94/952.3-6.3-2.0
95/962.3-7.3-2.5
96/970.5-8.6-4.1
97/982.0-5.2-1.6
98/994.9-4.20.4
99/004.0-5.2-0.6
00/012.8-6.6-1.9
01/023.5-6.0-1.3
02/034.7-4.49.1
03/045.4-4.89.9
04/054.1-5.5-0.7
05/065.8-4.30.8
06/073.7-5.4-0.8
07/082.5-7.0-2.2
08/092.2-7.5-2.6

Knock yourself out.

I have also graphed it, but can’t show that one here. The graph shows very clearly that over the almost 60 years, the coldest period were the first 15 in the data until 1956/57 which was the last time the average mean minimum dipped below -10C.

Here are the extreme low temperatures recorded in the years shown. The groupings are in decades and the cut off used is -40C. which is the one the MPB does not like to see for extended period.

Decade 1
46/47-46.7
48/49-43.3
49/50-50.0
50/51-41.1
52/53-48.3
53/54-41.1
55/56-45.0

Decade 2
56/57-42.8
64/65-45.6

Decade 3
68/69-43.3
69/70-41.1
71/72-40.6
74/75-40.0

Decade 4
78/79-42.2
84/85-44.6

So, 1985 is the last year we saw a -40C temperature in PG at YXS.

What was it you said about a search engine?

I have experienced -40C temperatures 4 times since moving to PG in 1973.

Those who were here 40 years prior to 1973 would have experienced at least 11 such occasions. There are only just over 30 years of records from the YXS station, so we cannot determine how many more they may actually have experienced.

No, if that is not a local warming indicator, I do not know how to better describe it. ;-)

I seem to be short of “w”s. I’ll have to go buy some later today.