New Housing Starts and Resales in Good Shape for P.G.
Prince George, B.C. – Canada Mortgage and Housing is painting a very positive picture for 
According to CMHC, new home construction starts in 2015 will increase by 9% this year over 2014, and will increase a further 13.8% next year over 2015 starts.
As for the resale market, the news there is mixed. While predicting a 1.9% drop in the number of homes that will sell this year over 2014 numbers, CMHC believes the market will experience a 3.2% increase in sales in 2016.
| Category | 2014 | 2015 | %change | 2016 | %change |
| New Construction
|
133 | 145 | +9% | 165 | 13.8% |
| Resale Units
|
1,285 | 1,260 | -1.9% | 1,300 | +3.2% |
| Avg. Resale Price | $271,581 | $277,000 | +2.% | $285,000 | +2.9% |
There is good news for sellers in that CMHC is predicting the price of the average home will increase by 2% this year to $277 thousand, and climb a further 2.9% next year to $285 thousand.
January was a good start to 2015 when it comes to new home construction. CMHC reports actual housing starts in Prince George in January were 16, more than double the 7 starts recorded in January of last year.
Comments
did cmhc look to see when the permits when all these permits were pulled all before the new building code came in not check how many were pulled in 2015
If the new home construction was measured against the average of the 70’s, 80’s, and 90’s then these numbers would represent about a quarter of the norm in an average year. ‘Good shape’ realestate market in PG is all in ones perspective.
These numbers I ‘believe’ are picked from a hat. CMHC has a vested interest in promoting a market that has a stable upside, but CMHC is at the whims of the banks in its ability to stay solvent.
CMHC allows over leveraged buyers to enter the market, because they sell an insurance that will make the banks 100% whole through a premium they charge to the borrower. The borrower pays the premium, but its the bank that has all the power and benefit from the policy. The bank is secure in that they have no skin in the game other than as an collector of arbitrage for providing a payment service. If a bank decides a home no longer has equity value (the market was a bubble, natural disaster, government policy ect ect), or decides to foreclose, they can sell the property for pennies on the dollar (the down side has no bearing on the bank) and its CMHC that is left holding the bag.
CMHC has over a trillion dollars insured in a very high risk Canadian housing market, and the ultimate guarantee for CMHC is the Canadian government. So the good credit of the Canadian government is now the backer of the Canadian housing markets… better take another half point cut just in case they consider….
If interest rates rose up, if quantitative easing (making banks whole on bad credit with printing fiat money) was to now stop… if China went into recession, if the economy slows down… the whole deck of cards will collapse on a grossly overpriced Canadian housing market. The debt insurance obligations of CMHC would triple the federal debt, and the higher interest rates would increase the interest payments ten fold or more (our current federal revenue wouldn’t cover it)… The bankers in the birds seat and the politicians under their thumb… would say we have a nanny entitlement state and demand cuts to all government programs and use things like CPP funds to float a government by and for the central bankers.
IMHO This is the Harper agenda and end game.
I am so glad to see that we have a resident expert on every subject that ever comes up on this site…I have to wonder how he manages to fit all of that through a door at night!
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