Thunderclap in Alberta election
By Peter Ewart
As the poll numbers came in, it was clear. The NDP have won a resounding majority government in the Alberta election. This result comes as a thunderclap in the province, but also the country as a whole.
What could be its effect on the federal election? Over the last while, some commentators have claimed that such an unlikely victory by the NDP would not necessarily hurt the Harper Conservatives in the rest of the country, especially Ontario. That is because any boost in the NDP’s popularity, it is suggested, would simply make them more competitive against the Liberals who are leading in Ontario. In effect, it would be a zero sum game between the NDP and the Liberals there, allowing the Harper Conservatives to waltz up the middle.
However, there is another factor at play here that cannot be discounted. For some time it has been expected by many that if the Harper Conservatives are overthrown it will necessarily have to be done by the Trudeau Liberals (whether in a minority or majority government).
But, with the Prentice Conservatives being trounced by the NDP in Alberta, a province that is the bedrock of Harper’s support, a lot more voters will be thinking that there could be another scenario, one in which the federal NDP is the giant-killer, not the Trudeau Liberals. Such an idea may seem outlandish to some. But who would have thought a year ago that the NDP would have even the faintest chance of racking up a majority government in Alberta?
At some point in the next few months, all those Canadians who want to see the Harper government defeated may very well come to a broad collective decision as to who can best bring the Conservatives down, and how this can be accomplished.
Is the Alberta election a harbinger of things to come? Or is it just some kind of regional phenomenon with little or no impact on the federal scene? More than a few politicians in Ottawa will be pondering that question.
Peter Ewart is a columnist and writer based in Prince George, British Columbia. He can be reached at: peter.ewart@shaw.ca
Comments
This was due to the hard line on all sorts of tax increases for the average Albertan in the last provincial budget. When it doesn’t hurt your pocketbook you don’t go on a rampage – like the PG municipal election, get the people digging into your wallet out and pray the new guys don’t follow suit. The PCs have not been digging hard into the average Joe’s wallet so it won’t be as dramatic. Unfortunately for Albertan’s the pull out your wallet for the party to pick is not over.
what’s you prediction now Pal? ha ha ha ha
Smart lady, interesting comments from PC when questioned about why when oil was 140 a barrel, Alberta lost 14 billion in royalties from companies. Answer was not 14 more like maybe 8….. to funny
44 years worth of paper shredding and file deletion . Should be a very busy few weeks in AB .
I knew you would come out after the results were in retired 02. No predictions from you prior to the election.
If you look at the big picture say from 2004 you will see that the Liberal party basically disappeared in Alberta. I suspect that the Liberals mostly voted for the NDP in this election. Furthermore the Wild Rose Party made a comeback that was not expected and pulled a lot of votes from the PC’s.
So at the end of the day we have the NDP with 40% of the popular vote, with 53% voting for the WRP or the PC’s,. So still more people voted right that left. However under our system the popular vote matters little when it is the number of seats won that counts.
Prentice made a serious mistake when he decided to tell voters the truth, which was that Alberta was in trouble and he wanted a mandate to fix it. He needed to raise taxes, and make some serious cuts. Rather than face the hard facts the voters chose to support the **Orange Crush** and the **Notley Crue**. In other words bling over substance. Not unusual in an election.
Alberta the most business friendly Province in Canada and the world is now going to be run by a bunch of socialists that (in my opinion) are way out of their league.
As Prentice said, he tried to set the way to go for Albertans and they chose an alternate route. He was not pleased with their choice, however the voters are always right. He then resigned from politics. I think if the truth were known he was disgusted with the voters inability to see a serious situation and act on it, and probably thinks that he will sit back and watch the results of this election.
In any event I support his resignation.
Once we get all the information on the ridings we will see that the *right* basically split the vote, and allowed the NDP to win. The NDP now have the dubious job of trying to save Alberta from a serious recession.
Lots of luck with that.
The NDP will govern from the centre, bringing some sanity back to the energy sector and some revenue back to provincial coffers. That helps pay for things. Not much to fear there. Their platform was based on polls conducted by the PCs. Albertans felt they were not getting their fair share. And they haven’t been.
This is a necessary change. The PCs would not have been able to do make those changes. Prentice is just sour grapes, and ended up abandoning his own constituency. I gather they’re not that impressed.
Hey Pal you never seem to tire of giving us that PS bull. Don’t forget to read my other post on your wonderful prediction.
Cheers
Palopu – Prentice is a poor loser .. first time in the history of Canadian politics that a premier quits on the night of election – the leader of his party and his own seat! He told Albertans to “look in the mirror” well, they did and they did not like his looks or policies .. rich get richer and the poor get poorer!!! Just talk to the average Albertans!! NOT THE OIL TYCOONS!!!
Hear hear , oldman1 . Jimmy is definitely a loser first and a sore loser second . This election is historic on many fronts . It is the first time in Canadian history that a provincial or federal government has elected a government with almost fifty percent being women . This demographically even government reflects society more than any other in canada .
Just so I’m understanding this correctly… Prentice runs and wins his seat, the party loses the election, he steps down and quits politics completely…. and now they need to have a by-election?
What a waste of taxpayers money. He should have grown a pair and continued to sit his term, even as just MLA.
Here we go again slamming the New demecrats. …where to hell are you all as coal mines are closing or closed can’t blame the new demecrats for that now can you. ..
“So at the end of the day we have the NDP with 40% of the popular vote, with 53% voting for the WRP or the PC’s,. So still more people voted right that left”
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This is very true, BUT, we must acknowledge that it is still incredible that a left leaning party in Alberta was able to gather enough support to make the majority possible. No doubt that the split helped, but it’s still an amazing result that nobody would have predicted even a month ago. Obviously something changed in the minds of Albertans this time around.
What’s even more interesting to ponder is that the NDP has more popular support in Alberta, than the Federal Conservatives have across the entire country. I wonder what the Reformers think of that?
This result is only due to the right wing vote being split. I know you dippers are peeing your pants over this but now you have to govern. Albertans are just waking up to the fact they will be governed by union hacks and Hugo Chavez supporters and they won’t like it. Sit back and watch the inevitable gong show.
Prentice. Doesn’t Harper have a few vacant senator positions that must be filled?
Prentice could see that people were not able to see the gravity of the situation that Alberta faces. Rather than vote for him and the PC they voted for the Wild Rose, and the NDP.
There is no doubt in my mind that he was the best man to look after Alberta during difficult times. In any event they chose another route, and he chose to resign his seat.
At least he had the balls to call it the way is was, and suggested that Albertans look in mirror if they wanted to see where the problem was. He gave them some indication as to what had to be done to get back on track, however the voters seem to think they know whats best and didn’t support him.
So why stick around,. Why spend more years of you life on people who have no concept of the big picture. They now have the dubious pleasure of watching the NDP try and run Alberta. Lots of luck with that.
The question that Albertans should be asking is , where is our trillion dollars ? The trillion dollars that they should have if they were as smart as a Norwegians . Btw that trillion dollars is only a very small part of the oil value of the whole . It boggles the minds of people just how much the oil companies get away with .when they get it . Like how we made the Koch brothers ( actually their father ) rich . That’s right Canadians made them rich . Now they buy governments . I bet that’s why eduction comes so low on the list of priorities . Keep em stoopid and steal their lunch .
Go to bed nutbar.
You don’t know anything about tax law either , do you dow ?
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