I was one of the lucky ones that wasn't naive. I saw it coming and put all my RRSP's ($1200 bi-weekly) and investments into bonds a year ago... and I'm up about 3% right now to date. A lot better than losing 30% I figured. At this rate we could see a market bottom below 6000 on the DOW & TSX. I might even be able to buyout general Electric when its all done lol.

I think that Canada has a good social safety net that America does not have, as well we have higher interest rates, no budget deficit, and less then half the debt per capita of the Americans. For this reason I think we will do a lot better and recover a lot sooner, but our exports will hurt. I don't think the growing Asian economies will not be effected in the long run as bad as the Americans, and their growth will also I think soften our blow 6-months from now. I think the turning point will be when you see the Canadian stock market going up while the American market continues down. The trend could set Canada up well for when the recession is over with money going where the money is to be made.

Ben, I do however see some hope on the horizon... a small glimmer. Last nights presidential debate saw John McCain come out with a policy from left field that he must have read here on oppinion250 last week when I made my suggestion for a bad housing market policy.

McCain wants to insure homes that were sold resetting mortgage rates for the difference in the buying price and the current value... I would hope that is after they enter foreclosure, so its not a free ride... but addresses the home affordability and market stabilization aspects that are the genus of any recovery. It went right over most people heads and those that did notice ridiculed, but give them a few more days to think about it. Clearly stabilizing home values in the states, so as to have a basis to value everything else should be the primary efforts to fix the system.

The banksters would like nothing more than to see $400 dollar a 1000-board feet lumber now days I bet (to save their butts), if for no other reason then to maintain new home values. Maybe in addition to McCain's policy we also need the price set at $400 with any difference between mills that need the cash flow (and thus sell for less), and the set market price, going to a pool to pay dividends to the hourly workers across the industry? It could be done where markets are maintained, values are maintained, and workers receive the benefit from anyone that tries to undercut the industry.

So anyways McCain is good for Prince George if elected because his policy to maintain home values and home ownership will be the best thing for maintaining the lumber markets for our 2x4's. Plus the added benefit that Palin will be all for highway, pipeline, and rail line connections through PG to the lower-48 worth tens of billions of dollars in infrastructure construction.

Obama on the other hand is bad for Canada and bad for the economy in general. Obama used the Harper term for our North Arctic when he said America has access to the energy in oil and gas that it requires, but those that control the rights need to get out of the way and that they should 'use it or lose it'. Can there be any doubt he is parroting the same neo-con line as Harper? We do know that this is a race between two flavors of neo-cons do we not? Its a classic lesser of two evils electoral campaign. Furthermore, Obama is a protectionist that wants to opt out of NAFTA. When Obama talks regulating the market he is really talking managing the market through protectionist policies that would hurt Canada. Obama is not talking about regulating the banksters in their abuse of leverage and monopolistic practices... maybe because that is who funded his campaign... maybe because his speech writers haven't put it in the speeches yet?

So long story short is I think John McCain is the best hope for recovery and in the mean time you might want to be in bonds so you have dry power when the opportunity arises.

Time Will Tell

Isn't it amazing when someone says something that is not popular with the masses that we immedialtely become labeled as negative or nuts or worse.
Carry on Ben you are doing just fine...

What Ben is saying shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone with even basic economics knowledge. Markets fluctuate, real estate goes up and down in markets anywhere around the world.

As for RRSP's - this all depends on how the money was invested - mutual funds, bonds etc. Ben, your financial advisor should have your RRSP's in a low risk investment as you approach retirement or the point at which you must start withdrawing them. It sounds by what you are saying they are invested in either mutual funds or investments tied to the stock market - thus would be losing value as stock values decrease. This would not be the case in everyones RRSP - so what you are saying might be true to you but not true to everyone.

If you are in your thirties and you have your RRSP's tied to market based investments there really is no need to panic. Historically, the stock market will rebound and gain its value - always has and always will - so ride the storm out - or even better - start buying while the price is low!!!

Also regarding the Canadian Economy - Ben - every country is now tied to each other - it is now a global economy - otherwise we would be making and using our own goods and not having to import or export.

"...the Yankee buck is still holding up why are we heading to the toilet?"

When the Canadian dollar was at par or even above the US dollar there was wide spread belly aching going on about Canadian manufacturers (such as the forest industry) taking a beating or not being able to compete.

Now that our dollar has dropped to 90 cents US - why is that a disaster?

Shouldn't there be wide spread celebrations?

Agreed diplomat - people must understand that the US dollar is as close as there is to a "global" currencty. Since we are trading in these dollars - 90 cents has just increased the bottom line of a lot of companies by 10% - not bad for doing nothing at all!

BEN!! I like how you say what has to be said!! You tell it how it is and say what everyone else wants to say but is to afraid of the negative name calling. Dont ever stop speaking for us, please. :)

The ones who call Ben negative probalby cant balance their own budget..Of course Bens views would be very negative if i were one of those people. Yes things are bad right now but if you secumb to the negative and sell and liquidate your assets like everyone else is doing your adding to the problem. Chicken little is alive and he is bleeding the economy!

Many of us were listening over the time(s) your opinion (on the talk shows, later
on Opinion-250, and on air again).
By now we all know one thing:
Mr. Meisner, you are pretty well
"right on the money" at all times.
Thanks for opening our eyes!

The US dollar is the prettiest ugly girl at the dance right now.

As for RRSPs and home prices. It's the law of gravity. What comes up must come down, and the bigger the are the higher they fall.

It really amazes me that there are so many people that never see anything negative or speak about anything negative.
These people can have a mouthfull of that wonderful brown stuff and still not say it.

If it were not for people that talked about these negative things that surround us on a daily basis, things would be left to fester.
Then those silent ones would be the loudest whinners on the planet crying, why didn't someone do something!

All those that are fence sitters deserve what they get IMO.

All those that have had enough and refuse to take it anymore, I raise my glass to you.

All I can recommend is to pick the broker that wears the brown trousers during these kinds of markets. He/she's likely the smartest one of them all.

We are aso hearing a lot of stuff on the cup is half full for our new airport. It will be interesting to see how right our positive thinkers are.

There is reality and then there are our dreamers.

Cheers

Ben
Nice brass band, but what is your point?

How is it helping everyone else?

It may be great for your ego, but what is the point?

Ben Meisner: Modern Day Nostradamus

BTW - "Yankee"? Come on.

The bearer of bad (spell realistic) news is never welcomed with cheers!

Here is some good news:

Gasoline sold for less than a buck a litre in Ottawa today!

The bad news:

We don't live in Ottawa!

"Anyone that thinks that the value of their RSP will remain or regain its former value in the next few weeks or months is thinking in pink"

Agreed. That being said, if you have time on your side this is probably not a bad time to invest in opportunities or at least stand put. If you need your money right away and your portfolio was in stocks, it's a tough time and cutting losses may not be a bad idea because it's going to go down even more before it gets better.

Please folks, as you get older or if you plan on needing access to your investments within a short period of time, accumulate more cash, GIC's, bonds, etc. You won't make a fortune, but at least you'll have your money.

If you aren't sure what to do, go talk to some pros and get multiple opinions. Remember, at the end of the day it's YOUR money and you need to do what YOU are comfortable with, not what your advisor is comfortable with.

So, NMG, what is the point of an advisor again? You might as well forget getting advice and just let the media and your emotions make the decisions for you.

So many people are making the mistake of making a permanant decision for a short term problem. If you have a long term strategy, stick to it. If you have a short term view, that should be the focus. But don't expect short term performance when you have a long term plan. How do you spell disaster? Many people are going to experience it right now if they let the media and the fear mongers distract them from their original goals.

On the other hand, there will be a small percentage of astute investors who will be capitalizing on the opportunities we now enjoy. Enter Warren Buffett and Jimmy Pattison. Yah right, you say, they can afford it and they are already rich. Well, how do you think they got rich? Taking advantage of a fearful, panic stricken marketplace who is hell bent on doing the worst thing at the absolutely worst time. For every seller, there must be a buyer. For every loser, there must be a winner.

Anybody want to be on the winning side of the fence this time? Buy, don't sell. Use your common sense for goodness sakes. The sky isn't falling.

"So, NMG, what is the point of an advisor again"

Simple, they provide advice. It doesn't mean you are obliged to take it. The point I was trying to make was that people ultimately need to take responsibility for their own situation. If you have an advisor you trust, great! If you don't, educate yourself as best as you can.

By the way, I agree completely with the rest of your post and I really like your comments about sticking with the plan. I agree that the world isn't going to crumble and come to an end. People will still need to eat, crops will still need grown, gas will still need to be refined to run tractors and transport trucks, women will still want gold and diamond jewellery, men will still want to drink beer, countries will still invest heavily in military equipment and arms, people will still need banks and insurance companies, medical technology will still be needed, etc.

The amount of sheer panic and frenzy being reported on the news on an almost hourly basis has to be partially contributing to this whole mess. There is no doubt that there are problems with the markets and financial systems right now, but they are temporary. What temporary means in this particular situation is up for debate. Some people wil get hurt more than others but the world will go on and 10-15 years from now people will be talking about this in terms like "the crash of 2008", much like we do about previous crashes and events. Like all of those other events, it will also eventually come to pass and life will continue on.