Clear Full Forecast

No Quick fix to Economy

By 250 News

Wednesday, November 26, 2008 03:48 AM

Prince George, B.C.- “There are more difficult times ahead in the short term, and yes, we do see some improvement coming later on” says Helmut Pastrick, the Chief Economist for Central 1 Credit Union, but he says it all depends on a return to a normal situation in the financial sector.
The second half of next year is a reasonable estimate of when things will turn around says Pastrick. He says growth will still be slow, but none the less, it will be better than what we see now.
He also says it is possible that over the longer term there might be changes in the way people live, in the manner of reducing to one car, smaller homes “It’s certainly possible in the longer term, these kinds of trends are certainly possible, but the current situation will result in more uncertainty and more savings and potentially less consumption growth.” That means lower retail sales, and reduced housing starts. He says that uncertainty will be around for the next three to five years, and in the ten years after that, other forces will come in to play to make consumers make adjustments in their consumption patterns.  He predicts people will make more moves to reduce their footprint, reducing the use of their vehicles, moving to smaller homes, making efforts to reduce energy consumption.
According to Pastrick there will be at least a further three months before equity markets settle out, and   by mid year of 2009, the equity market should start to show signs of improvement.
Pastrick was in Prince George last night for an economic discussion with Initiatives Prince George.

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Comments

I would say its like a plastic bag full of pebbles and sticks... this economy is going to keep rattling rocks out of the bottom of the bag no matter how fast we keep filling the bag with new rocks until someone gets us a new bag with out so many sticks in it.

The system is broken because it is not ethically regulated and structured with adequate protections against the personal profit motive of the insiders in positions of trust and power who feel entitled to their share of any manipulated profits they can conjure up. With that being the investment jungle people are asked to invest their paychecks into... most people won't have confidence as long as we have the people who created the problems in the beginning now being tasked with fixing the effects of the problem. It would be better if the government looked to actually fixing the problem and re-establishing the rule of law over the financial sector... but then maybe the political sector is in just as much mud of their own?
Why doesn't the credit union start a regional diversification fund where they take a pool of retirement investments from regional employers and re-invest into creating new regional economic opportunities, partnerships, synergies ect or buying existing operations providing a more secure and local application of our significant pooled capital that is currently invested in sketchy RRSP funds and other retirement funds who invest where the dollar is king and not invested with ethics or any benefit to our region (possibly even in competition with our own jobs).

I think it would be good if we had a local Japanese style mega corp investing in industry virtically and horizontially in a strategic manor for the future that benefits its local investors as well as its industry and could tap into its industry for incubation and later export growth to other areas in later sales ect... all the while providing safe visible investment opportunity for local savers and investors.

Why would we need to go to New York, Vancouver, and Toronto for their dirty money if we had our own money here in our own region of the province? We wouldn't need to listen to the blackmail of their puppet politicians anymore.
What Pastrick's trying to say, but won't put in terms that wouldn't be considered "politically correct", is that the standard of living available to you is now going to drop, while your cost of living is still going to rise.

It won't be that you WANT to make do with 'one car', or a 'smaller house', or having to shiver in it on the brink of pneumonia all winter to 'reduce your energy consumption'. Not because there is any shortage of cars, or the ability to make them. Nor because there's any shortage of building materials to build you a house adequate in space to feel fully comfortable in. Nor any shortage of energy to heat it, or allow you to drive your 'one car'when you need it.

These things abound, and technology enhances the production of all of them more efficiently year by year by year.

No, you are to be denied them completely, or forced to work longer and harder for them, if you can find any work at all, until you've 'saved'. Though the current policies of government continue to decrease, year by year by year, the 'purchasing power' of your savings! Making a cruel mockery of the whole concept of thrift.

Do people like Helmut Pastrick, obviously educated by some University in the subject of 'economics', just repeat what some Professor has told them? Or do they ever take a look at the 'big picture' as it is in the real world and actually THINK for themselves?

A real world where 'money' is NOT some commodity like cars or houses or energy, or even the raw materials from which these things and others have been provided. But rather no more than an 'accounting-demand system'. One which is currently flawed 'macro-economically'with an entirely and easily correctable flaw which should be the focus of all our attention. For without its correction the 'figures ' can never be made to reflect the 'facts', and it is completely insane to try to make 'facts' fit a set of inaccurate 'figures'.
beware of the media and be very scared of these so called "experts"
Hey! The dollar is down. No more "whining" about our poor export situation. Back to the good old days when I can buy a .99 cent hamburger in the US fer a dollar and a half Canadian. Happy days are here again!!
Notice how Pastrick is careful not to ever define just what IS "a return to a normal situation in the financial sector".

That must be when 'debt' is back to growing exponentially again. And those in that 'financial sector' busy themselves trying to devise new ways to lend money to those who'll never be able to repay it. Just so their 'system' can continue to function.

At some point, one would think, they'll have to face up to the reality that all this does is create a worse 'bookkeeping' mess than we're already witnessing.

Already some countries like Taiwan and Italy and Malaysia are realising they have to "give" Consumers money to try to restore a "normal situation". They're careful to not go any further than that, though, lest the wrath of the IMF and World Bank descend upon them.

So they won't make what should be a permanent feature of EVERY modern, industrial economy, anything more than a temporary measure.

And no doubt the "money" they are "giving" their citizens will be recorded as an addition to their National Debts. So the pretence that it will someday be re-paid, to someone, (a never identified "who?"), can be maintained.

Too bad the world's 'economists' and the world's 'accountants' don't speak the same language. Or they'd probably see the solution to enabling the 'financial sector' to serve us far better than the 'normal' situation they hope to restore it to.