Western Wood Products Association Predicts Slow Recovery in 2010
By 250 News
Friday, March 27, 2009 06:22 PM
Prince George, B.C. - As lumber companies continue to face challenges because of declining demand, the Western Wood Products Association has released its forecast for the year ahead.
In a release issued last week, the Portland Oregon company predicts the demand for lumber in the U.S. will slide to 28.9 million board feet, down a further 30% from 2008’s totals, making it “the lowest level in modern history .”
The good news is, the Association predicts markets will start moving toward a slow recovery starting in 2010.
Since reaching an all-time high of 64.3 billion board feet in 2005, U.S. demand for lumber has dropped by more than 55 percent – the steepest decline in the history of the industry.
Home construction traditionally accounts for more than 45 percent of the lumber used each year. The Association estimates just 432,000 houses will be started in 2009 in the U.S., down more than half from 2008 totals and one-fifth of what was built in 2005.
The volume of lumber used in new home construction is expected total 5.3 billion board feet this year, compared to the 27.6 billion board feet consumed in home building in 2005.
In 2010, housing is forecast to improve modestly to 553,000 starts in the U.S. bringing lumber consumption to nearly 30 billion board feet. WWPA does not expect housing starts to exceed 1 million units until 2012.
The prediction for Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. is for a total of 7.6 billion board feet in 2009, a decrease of 34.7 percent from the previous year. Since 2005, Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. have declined by nearly two-thirds, or some 14 billion board feet.
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