CMHC Predicts Housing Start Rebound

Thursday, September 03, 2009 09:05 AM

Prince George, B.C.- Canada Mortgage and Housing is predicting growth in housing starts in the second half of 2009 and will reach 141,900 for the year. Starts will increase to 150,300 for 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) third quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition* report. The overall forecast totals for housing starts remain unchanged from the second quarter release.

"Economic uncertainty and lower levels of employment tempered new housing construction in the first half of this year", said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC. "In the second half of 2009 and in 2010, we expect housing markets across Canada to strengthen."

Improving activity on the resale market and lower inventory levels in both the new and existing home markets are expected to prompt builders to increase residential construction.

Existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®)¹, have rebounded strongly since January and will reach 420,700 units in 2009 and remain close to that level at 419,400 units in 2010. The average MLS® price is expected to moderate to $301,400 in 2009 and to increase to $306,300 in 2010.

National Housing Outlook

Key Housing Market Indicators

	2008 Actual	2009 Forecasts	2010 Forecasts
Total housing starts (units)	211,056	141,900	150,300
Total single-detached houses	93,202	68,400	72,450
Total multiple housing units	117,854	73,500	77,850
Total MLS^® sales¹	433,990	420,700	419,400
Average MLS^® selling price ($)	303,607	301,400	306,300

Provincial Housing Outlook

Total Housing Starts

	2008 Actual	2009 Forecasts	2010 Forecasts
Newfoundland and Labrador	3,261	2,950	3,000
Prince Edward Island	712	625	640
Nova Scotia	3,982	3,050	3,325
New Brunswick	4,274	3,285	3,500
Quebec	47,901	43,175	41,100
Ontario	75,076	48,675	50,000
Manitoba	5,537	4,000	4,300
Saskatchewan	6,828	3,750	4,150
Alberta	29,164	16,100	18,250
British Columbia	34,321	16,250	22,000

Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition, Third Quarter 2009. Totals may not add due to rounding.

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