FRIDAY FREE FOR ALL - October 23rd, 2009
By 250 News
Friday, October 23, 2009 12:00 AM
Another Friday, another Friday Free For All wher you pick the topic for discussion.
Keep it Clean
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L E T 'E R R I P !!!!!
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It’d be hard to make this stuff up.
One of Canada’s biggest banks is slapped with a debt review and a likely credit downgrade.
The country’s biggest province says half its business taxes vanished, and doubles its deficit. It, too, gets a debt downgrade.
And it’s taken a mere 12 months for Ontario and Canada itself to pile $83 billion more in debt on taxpayers’ shoulders. In fact Ontario alone figures new debt will hit $70 billion over the next three years, while the national government heaps on $200 billion.
Was it only a year ago we heard this: “We will not be running a deficit. We will keep our spending within our means. It is that simple. The alternative is not a plan. It is just the consequence of complete panic, and this government will not panic at a time of uncertainty.”
So spoke PMSH last October. The prime minister also promised the recession would not come here. So it’s a good thing he’s not running a major Canadian corporation like Bank of Montreal. Oh, sorry. Bad example.
But this is not to dis the political class, now guaranteeing through their actions that your taxes will increase. Instead it’s to remind you of the fragility of the economy and how, in many ways, we have created the illusion of prosperity. Dig down a little, and you’ll wish you hadn’t.
For example, imagine if something really costly happened. Like 30% of the workforce staying home for three weeks because of H1N1. Or some religious fundamentalist whackjobs blowing up the Toronto subway. Or maybe a real estate decline of 15% causing a wave of mortgage defaults on high-ratio loans.
Which brings me to CMHC. Again,
The reason government finances have fallen off a cliff, along with those of carmakers, resource companies, steelmakers, tool and die companies, casinos, exporters and a host of other folks is simple. The economy sucks. People are out of work. Businesses losing money don’t pay taxes. The prime minister was wrong. Apparently you can’t fight global recession with a soundbite.
But meanwhile, two things are booming: Real estate and lending money. House sales are up by a third nationally. The average price is ahead 11% on average. Mortgage loans have hit an all-time high – rising an estimated 12% in 2009 alone. Consumer credit has soared 9% during the recession. And we now owe more, per head, than the Yanks. Household debt in Canada is 140% of income. Down south, it’s 132%.
So why do we have a real estate boom, when they are still wallowing in their bust?
Simply because CMHC, a federal government agency, backs all high-risk mortgages with taxpayer dough. By removing all risk from the banks, it lets them lend to people without money and little prospect of paying their loans off. It allows them to give the cheapest, lowest rate to those with the highest default risk. In case that sounds familiar, we used to call them ’subprime.’
In fact, the government encourages this. It obviously wants a housing bubble. It’s doubled CMHC’s debt threshold to $600 billion, just slightly higher than the current national debt – an amount of money which goes 100% into high-ratio loans and which is guaranteed by taxpayers. At least those still working.
What’s more, these mortgages are being bought from the banks which otiginated them (also paid for with tax dollars) so they can make more of them. CMHC then bundles the loans together and sells them as MBS units – mortgage-backed securities, just as Wall Street securitized subprime loans and sold them globally, precipitating a crisis.
The big difference between the two countries, however, is that in America the selling of mortgages was done privately by corporations. So when enough mortgages failed, so did the securities. Here the mortgages are guaranteed by the federal government, so they cannot fail. Unless, of course, CMHC does.
But what’s to worry?
It has six hundred billion in insured loans. And eight billion in equity.
By the way, the Bank of Canada says the recession will be over in 2011.
Hard to make this stuff up.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/10/22/its-that-simple/