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Are The BC Liberals Worried?

By Ben Meisner

Monday, June 14, 2010 03:45 AM

Blair Lekstrom may find himself facing the same dilemma as former Liberal Paul Nettleton.

You may remember Nettleton, he  was the MLA from PG west and Vanderhoof who dared to argue that BC Hydro was about to be carved up and private power companies would be taking over the production of power in the province at the expense of the general user. Nettleton was at least right in his argument that private power, through run of the river and wind power were establishing a foot hold in BC and Oh yes on the matter of the price going up, stand back and watch.

So Lekstrom may in fact find himself falling on the sword for what he believes in. His portfolio was important and he sat at the cabinet table. He knows what’s going on for the most part in the inner circles, at least up until last week.

Governments and their leaders don’t look kindly on a defection; history is riddled with good politicians, those who would stand up for what they believe in landing on the rubbish heap.

Did he do the right thing in cutting and running?  Of course he did. He must be driven by his convictions and when he lost the enthusiasm for that position it was time to go.

The Liberals face a problem in the HST and they know it. Trying to reign in the opposition on the tax is another matter. The public is not stupid enough to believe that when you give a tax break to business, that business will pass it onto the consumer in some magical way. Now what they have up their sleeve as a way of combatting the opposition is another matter, cut the tax by say 2% to make it very palatable?  Maybe.

On the other hand in the game of politics the Liberals would sooner wait around and hope they have Carole James as the leader of the NDP in the next election, hoping that party will shoot itself in the foot again.

Bill Vanderzalm resurrected?  Forget it , he no doubt would like to see Chris Delaney form a new party from which he could influence the decisions and future of that party , but simply put , it isn’t going to happen.

So don’t expect much from Gordon Campbell and the Liberals. The  party doesn't seem to feel it’s time to pull the plug on the leader and the question in their mind continues to be, does Carole Taylor have the ability to pull the party from the depths and in fact does she want the job?

I’m Meisner and that’s one man’s opinion.    


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Comments

Bang on Ben!
Seems the liberal theme at present is we did not do a good job explaining how wonderful the HST will be.

I would certainly be interest in hearing how a tax shift of 2 billion dollars from industry to the average working person is going to benefit him or her.
Given the track record of Liberal lies as to budget deficit, BC Rail, and HST, it just might be a hard sell.
Last month BC lost thousands of jobs, yet you would think with the HST on the horizon and all the benefit the Liberals are expounding the trend of job creation would be taking place and not the other way around.

Campbell and his cronies are certainly doing more to advance the fortunes of the NDP than millions of dollars of NDP advertising could ever do.







Bens right in his assessment of the Liberals at this time however there are some problems facing the Liberals.

Dont forget that the best laid plans of mice and men off times go awry. This is one of those times.

1. The people of BC are really upset about this tax, and that will not change in the short term.

2. If the Liberals do not make a move to recind this tax in the very near future, then the next step is to go to Re-Call. Re-Call can begin in November. What re-call does is take the management of the agenda away from the Liberals and back to the Anti-HST Movement.

3. Let there be no doubt that Vander Zalm fully intends to go to re-call against Gordon Campbell and Colin Hansen, however he has no ambition to recall enought MLA's to change the Government.

4. Since anyone can start a recall campaign you always have the possibility of the NDP recalling enough MLA's to change the Government. This would give them a majority Government at least for the 90 day period while the by-elections were being fought.

5. So the Liberals can only control this situation until November, after which they lose the agenda. At the very least they will get bad publicity during the 60 day recall periods, which will offset the propaganda they have planned for this summer to convince us this is a good tax.

6. The Conservatives and Chris Delaney are no doubt manuvering for position on this situation, however I doubt that they would be able to launch any kind of a third party threat until the election of 2013. At best they could split the vote three ways in a by election that would probabl work in favour of the NDP.

So it seems that it will be up to the people of BC to keep the pressure on the Liberals to recind this tax. At this time the Liberal options are not good. If they want to survive as a Political Party in BC then they will have to recind the tax. This is the only way they can maintain some kind of credibility. The alternative is to loose the next election. Will the Liberal Party sit back and allow Campbell and Hansen to put them in the tank for the forseeable future. I certainly hope not, however stranger things have happened.

Campbell has sold out the people of BC and his own Party to the major corporations, much the same as Mulrooney did with the GST, and Conservatives. I doubt if he really cares as he will move on to bigger and better things.

Liberal MLA's should give carful consideration to what is happening, and get rid of Campbell, before his actions get rid of them. A sufficient number of them must now make the same move that Lekstrom made.

Do they have the Gonads????
If the Liberals don't do something major like rescind the tax, if Campbell doesn't step down, if they continue to underfund education and healthcare ... while ... spending half a billion dollars on a stadium roof ... well ... they're done.

The opportunity for a new political party has never been more apparent. A centrist / left party would win the next election easily.

Gordon Wilson???
I doubt the NDP itself will get involved in recalling any Liberal MLAs. Individuals who are members of the party might be involved, but if the party itself did so it would be fraught with too many problems, and I would have thought they would prefer to avoid all those and just stand on the sidelines allowing the Universe to unfold. To those who are so sure that Carole James can't be elected as Premier, please remember that they used to say that about Campbell in the 90s, and now look. She is obviously competent, reviving the NDP from 2 seats to where it is a very viable choice for the next government when the Liberals are turfed out, changed leader or no.

I suspect there will be several recalls in the Fall, but we have to remember that a recall is not the petition and just because someone signs a petition does not mean they will recall their MLA. They may be linked, but not absolutely. On the other hand, people are really quite angry, so who knows.

Campbell and his supporters still appear to be missing the point. They intend to run an advertising campaign promoting the benefits of the HST, at taxpayers' expense of course, as if the public doesn't understand that it is a tax shift from business to consumer and designed to benefit those businesses. The public just does not accept that the trickle down benefits from this are real. In any case, that is not the point.

The point is that people believe Campbell and his party deliberately and cynically misled them during the last election. They are probably correct in that, given Campbell's record of deceit over the years. It is anger over that which is driving the anti-HST petition's success, not misunderstanding over the effects once implemented. The Liberal's attempts at dealing with that belief have been so feeble that they contribute to supporting the public's belief they were lied to rather than diminish it. All their defence comes down to is a simple denial with no evidence to support it, but who in their right mind would believe that the Federal Government would fork over nearly $2 billion after discussions lasting a few weeks? I certainly don't. Quite obviously, discussions about the HST had gone on for a lot longer than that, and someone in the Provincial Government knew about it.

Of course, the whole subject is complicated even more by the BC Rail corruption court case, which will be running as a side show for the whole time any petition and recall are on the main stage. Only one witness so far, and the inferences are mind boggling. As the trial progresses, I fully expect things to get worse for Campbell. How, though, do we factor in any effect from this trial when we don't know what evidence is to be presented? It is a huge question mark.
"I would certainly be interest in hearing how a tax shift of 2 billion dollars from industry to the average working person is going to benefit him or her."

You have not been paying attention, you naughty boy.

The industry will be able to sell its "stuff" 7% cheaper. That will make their "stuff" more affordable to people outside the country that will not be paying the taxes, while remaining unaffordable to those inside the country because they have to pay 7% more on taxes instead of the "stuff".

Because the foreign market is much larger than the domestic market, there will be such an overwhelming increase in foreign orders, that the downturn in production for domestic purchasers will be offset to the tune of say as much as 20% that the number of jobs will increase and/or the pay will increase to such an extent that the population will be rolling in dough.

One has to wonder why someone ever put the sales tax on products in the first place.

BTW, does anyone remember how much better off the country is as a result of removing the hidden manufacturing tax and exposing it as the GST?

Being in government allows one to apply all these hairbrained theories in the lab of the real world and we are the guinea pigs.

:-)
Whether people are correct about the HST introduction being deceitful in that it was known before the election that it would be introduced really does not matter. Appearance is all that it needs, similar to conflict of interest situations. Does not matter if it is real or not.

Any reasonable person should know that by now and act accordingly. They did not. They have been dealing with the consequence ever since.
I know many people realize I am not of a right mind, so I would be one of those "who in their right mind would believe that the Federal Government would fork over nearly $2 billion after discussions lasting a few weeks"

The discussions had been going on with Ontario. BC was not involved with those. When Ontario said yes, BC had to decide whether it was enough of an incentive for business to favour Ontario when forming, or even a significant number leaving and moving to Ontario. The incentive had to be there for BC because Ontario was getting it.

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/BC-Politics/2010/04/15/TaxTalk

This article about the Ontario move to the HST is dated March 30, 2009

http://www.google.ca/search?q=ontario+hst+decision+timeline&hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:en-ca:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7GGIE_en&start=0&sa=N
I don't like paying taxes. I would like the government to spend/waste less so we all pay less tax. I think the Campbell government screwed this up royally. However, I support the HST. It is better to have one tax than two. It will cut the costs of doing business in BC. Partially by not having to pay PST on business purchases but more so by reducing the cost and complexity of running a business (keeping track of PST and filing PST returns takes a lot of time). It will eliminate a whole bunch of government jobs which is always a good thing. Also, why should tim horton and earls only charge 5% sales tax while future shop home depot have to charge 12%.

Why the hate on for business owners? Don't we all earn our income from a business? Aren't we all shareholders of big corporations though CPP, RRSPs, pensions, etc. The tax savings and business efficiencies will eventually result in lower prices for consumers. The prices are not going to drop on July 1 but within a year or two consumers will receive the full benefit of this more efficient tax. Consumers are very price sensitive. A business that does not constantly work on improving effiency and providing better value for its customers will soon fail.

Lets encourage our governments to stop wasteing our money but fighting the HST is not going to help the citizens of BC.
I think the upcoming election will be a great opportunity for the Green Party in BC.
I am always astounded by how people will spout off their opinions without informing themselves about facts first. Including our host Ben: “The public is not stupid enough to believe that when you give a tax break to business, that business will pass it onto the consumer in some magical way.” It is called free-enterprise. Ben is trying to indicate to me that when he was a retailer he did not feel downward pressure on his prices because the guy next-door wanted to take 25% margin instead of 30%. Bull. Prices will come down. Further, HST isn’t new, it has been around a long time: A C.D. Howe Institute study showed that the consumer price index (CPI) components related to food, household furnishings and operation, health
and personal care, recreation and education, alcohol and tobacco all reflecteda reduction in price, while those related to shelter, clothing and footwear,
and transportation all increased in price, resulting in a net, minor reduction in
overall tax-included prices following harmonization in the Atlantic provinces.


The notion of a “tax shift” Resident: “ I would certainly be interest in hearing how a tax shift of 2 billion dollars from industry to the average working person is going to benefit him or her.” Don’t delude yourself, there is no such thing as a tax shift. If Northern Hardware is paying a tax, you are paying for it already. Businesses pass all taxes on to the next person(company) or they will not survive. That includes corporate income tax, PST and ANY other tax that a business pays.

The reason everybody bitches about HST is that now they can see it. You have always paid it now you know what you are really paying. Why would you people actually want to pay a higher personal income tax on your payroll instead of have control over how much tax money you pay? You only pay HST when you purchase something that is taxable. And you only pay the amount of tax you want to pay, because you can pick the same type of item generally at, at least 3 different price points. You want designer, you will pay more HST than if you just want Mark’s Work Warehouse brand.

It’s coming, it is a good thing.
Good God. I can hardly beleive what some people say and think.

There is no indication that the money saved by Big Business and Corporations will trickle down in savings to consumers. One of the main reason is that 80% of whats produced in this Province is exported. How are you going to get a cheaper price on Ingots, Copper Concentrates, Lumber, Pulp and Paper, Coal, etc;. These are the Companies that will make the most of the $1.9 Billion savings.

This is a tax shift from Big Business to Consumers, and anyone who thinks that it was done for the benefit of consumers is leaving in a dream world. It was done so that Big Business and Corporations would get the tax break and Consumers would pick up the tab.

The average increase in taxes for families that make between $60,000 and $80,000 per year could run as high as $1500.00 . I suspect that this increase will range between $800.00 to $2200.00 per year depending on your spending. Are we to beleive that we would get enough savings to offset this higher cost. Not bloody likely.

Its time for people to focus on the fact that this is a tax shift, and will not benefit the average worker. So quit repeating the propaganda.

Some examples of what will be increased.
Newspapers, Magazines,Household moving services, Dry Cleaning, Snack food, chips, pop, etc;, Retaurant Meals, Basic Cable Television, Local Residential Phone,Landscaping, Lawncare, Private Snow Remmoval and House Cleaning, Taxis, Camping Sites, Domestic Air ,Rail and Bus Travel Originating in BC, Over the counter Medications,Vitimans, Admission to Professional Sporting Event eg; Hockey,football,soccer games, Golf Memberships, and fees, Gym and Athletic Memberships, Tickets for Live Theatre, Bicycles, Music Concerts, Funeral Services, Wedding Planning Services, Veterinarian Services (This is a biggy) , Purchase of used vehicles, Cigarettes, New Homes over $525000.00

This is a partial list there is much more.

This tax will NEVER, REPEAT, NEVER result in lower prices for consumers, especially considering that most of what we consume is manufactured outside Canada, and therefore the costs are out of our control.

Any and all savings by business will go into their pockets.

Have a nice day.


Hopen

I am not disputing CD Howe study of Atlantic provinces HST.

That was there and that was then.

We are here and this is now.

It might be a revelation to you, but the provinces are unique in Canada.

Palopu has it right, as he sometimes gets to be (LOL). We are not a big manufacturing province. Virtually all cloting is made in foreign countries or in Quebec. There will be no reduction to the retailer by the manufacturer except for a few items. Thus there will be no reduction to the purchaser.

On top of that, there will be a new PST component of the HST on services. As Palopu says, BC is an extractor of raw materials that go mainly outside the province to be made into goods we then purchase once they are manufactured into something. All that tax is now lost to this province since we are not going to get it from the client.

Show me the computer simulation. Has anyone done one? I doubt it. They are all working off figures that aere virtually no better than those scribbled on the back of an envelope. Otherwise they would trott that out rather than some old inapplicable surveys.
Hopen:

Come July 1/10 when I have to pay $500.00 more on the $10,000.00 used car I buy privately, 5% more on bicycles, 5% more tax on my Cougars tickets,etc. I would sure like to know how these costs were previously included in the sale price. Even the Liberals admit it will cost the consumer more out of their jeans.
It would certainly be interesting to mark down the prices of a basket of goods today and again in 6 months and see if there is in fact a price reduction. Highly unlikely.
The HST is a fraud Gus.....

Gordon Campbell lied about the deficit and the HST...

And Mr. Gus......The B.C. Progress board, a magazine that Gordon Campbell reads like the bible and has done interviews for...

In December 2008 the BC Progress board advocated for BC to go to an HST tax and....

The BC Progress board stated in their article that consumers priceswould rise and middle income and the poor would be hurt the most and....

And the most shocking thing the BC Progress board said was...

"Public opposition to such a shift would be substantial concern to policymakers, similar concerns have thwarted sales tax harmonization by all provinces west of Quebec since the GST was introduced in 1991" snip

The BC Progress board warned Gordon Campbell that implimenting an HST was political suicide, that`s why Campbell lied his face off during the election and deceived everyone!

Mr Ben Meisner, YOU ARE WRONG....The HST will not be lowered in 2012 because....

The federal Government won`t lower their share of the HST ....The Province, if they lowered the provincial part of the HST by 2 percentage points would be a ....

$4 billion dollar yearly hit to the BC Provincial treasury, where would money come from for services by giving up that income, and considering we are a broke have not province the HST won`t be lowered, the rumoured lowering of the HST is a con, the BC Liberals are a con...

You can read the whole story here, check out the links, make sure to click the last link that will bring you to the December 2008 BC Progress board article that advocates for the HST and warns of the political fall out, that`s why Campbell lied his face off!


http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.com/2010/06/gordon-campbells-and-bill-goods-stage.html


Cheers
Grant G ....

You are dealing with the notion that Campbell/BCLiberals knew they were going to implement the HST at the time of the election.

I really do not care about that. You will likely never be able to prove it. Even if they thought about it, there is no proof they were going to implement it.

My main argument is that the progress board analysis is hogwash. It is a slanted from a political and econimic theory point of view and based on pure economics. The real world does not work on pure economics, on an economist's world works purely on economics in that person's mind. And "therein lies the rub".

As it sates in the section you pointed to: "the BC Competition Council recommendation not to replace the PST with a value added sales tax due to the potential effect on retail prices is debatable".

Well, that is my point. It is debatable and I am on the Competition Council's side in their 2006 statement:

Provincial Sales Tax
The harmonization of the provincial retail sales tax (PST) with the federal goods and services tax (GST) would be of considerable benefit to business and industry. However, approximately 40
percent of the PST ($1.6 billion) in 2005/06 was paid by business and industry.

Under GST harmonization a considerable portion of this would have to be borne by individual retail purchasers.

Recommendation: The Council believes that such a transfer would not be in the interests of British Columbia and, therefore, recommends that, at the present time, the PST and GST should not be harmonized.

http://bccompetitioncouncil.gov.bc.ca/Competition_Council_Report.pdf

So in 2009 the Progress Report said that statement was debatable, but did not provide the debate.

Well, we now have the debate in public instead of by an elite group with blinders on. Smart government! Economic automatons.
Lets clear up something first Gus...

The BC Government takes in more than 410 billion dollars in PST, not $1.6 billion...

University students pay more money to the BC Government than all the taxes paid by Corporations in BC..FACT!

Teck Comenco...EnCana gas...Forestry won`t hire one new worker because of the HST...

No savings will be had on anything in BC, no savings will be passed on...Are the miners going to reduce the price of Gold, is EnCana gas going to lower natural gas prices?

All of those items are controlled by international markets like the mercantile exchange...

Pat Bell(Idiot) Claims there is $7 dollars of embedded PST per 1000 board feet of lumber, that may or may not be true but....

That $7 dollar savings won`t help or save forestry, let me explain..

The price of 1000 board feet of lumber on the world price has fluctuated from a low of $140 dollars per 1000 board feet to over $800 dollars per 1000 board feet of lumber to today`s current price of $330 dollars per 1000 board feet....

In the last 12 months Gus the price of lumber has risen from $140 to over $330 dollars per 1000 board feet, do the math Gus...

The price has risen 200%....The price of lumber has risen equivelant to 40 times the HST advantage, and still mills are closed, .....

$7 dollars of embedded PST....40 X $7 dollars is $280 dollars, in other words Gus............

The HST won`t help forestry, if lumber had a price range that only ranged,....Say from $300 dollars to $350 dollars, if lumber had minor moves maybe the HST would help but lumber fluctuates by factors of hundreds of dollars.

Pat Bell is a fool, Gordon Campbell under his watch, 70 mills closed and 40,000 jobs gone and Campbell and Pat(fool)Bell want to claim that a possible $7 dollars per 1000 board feet will save forestry...

If anyone believes that they must be eating the wrong kind of fungi!

Cheers
oops, sorry about the typo...That first line should read over $10 billion dollars in PST...Not $410 billion...

My Bad
Okay, since we are trying to get things straight Grant, let's take the time to do that.

The figure you refer to is what business paid in 2005/06. It was a quote from the 2006 report of the Competition Council.

The 2010 estimate is $2 billion for business of a $5.087billion total estimate for 2010. That info comes from the government's estimate.
http://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2009/estimates/2009_Estimates.pdf

Now it is your turn, where do you get the $10billion from?

As for the rest of your writing, I might or might not agree with some of it since you seem to love to embellish.

Save your breath for me. I agree that the HST is the wrong approach to make this province more competitive. How often do I have to state that?
Okay, decided differently.

This diatribe of yours is just sheer stupidity. "Gordon Campbell under his watch, 70 mills closed and 40,000 jobs gone"

Why? Do you have one iota of an understanding of why?

Try this:

1. US housing went into the drink
2. BC has been flogging lumber to the USA (as has Canada) without diversifying its market, ever since I was a little boy. I learned that in geography in grade school when we used to have to draw little symbols of pulp and lumber mills on the map of Canada for BC and wheat and cattle on the map of Alberta (before oil was a big deal), etc.
3. BC did not plan its AAC by giving consideration to possible major natural disturbances.

Campbell happened to be there while something out of his control happend. Almost the same as Bush was there when planes hit the world trade centre and Obama was there when BP goofed. The causes of those incidents were a long time in developing over several decades and governments.

Now, if you want to discuss how Campbell is handling the foresty problem now thatr he has inherited it, that would be a meaningful discussion.
Hmmm--something out of Campbells control------- Only thing I can think of is fight the HST.