Promising Year Ahead says Economist
By 250 News
Tuesday, January 18, 2011 01:13 PM
Prince George, B.C. - Exports and business investment will lead the way in the economy in the year ahead. That’s the prediction from Jason Meyers, the President and CEO of the Canadian manufacturers and Exporters.
Meyers has been recognized by Watson Wyatt as the most accurate economic forecaster in Canada.
Meyers told a Prince George Chamber of Commerce luncheon that he expects interests rates to increase by about 50 basis points, the dollar to sit in the 1.04 U.S. range, and that consumer inflation will run below 2%.
“I think the U.S. economy will continue to recover, not in housing, but that the overall U.S. economy will recover, slowly.”
He says with the U.S. dollar falling, commodity prices will increase, and that speaks well for resource based economies . He expects the Canadian economy to grow by about 2% this year, down from 2.8% recorded in 2010.
Meyers says this a more optimistic forecast than he has made in the past couple of years. He expects to see a rebound in exports as U.S. and international demand increase, particularly in Asia.
He points to growth in exports over the past year of 5% to the U.S. and 10% increase in exports to Japan, and 30% to other countries.
In B.C. manufacturing growth from October 2009 to October 2010 has grown by 7.7%. In the manufacturing sales by sector, production of wood products, B.C. saw growth of 16.9% over the previous year.
Meyers says if Canada is to remain competitive, it must continue to see a reduction in corporate tax rates, because Canada has to compete globally and the United States continues to have better corporate tax rates than Canada. He says reduced tax loads provide increased cash flow which means companies can put more money into research and development which leads to employment opportunities. “The fact that profits are going up means stronger economic growth and that’s the way the economy is supposed to work.”
That's why Meyers says the HST is a positive for B.C. "It is very important part of getting the tax situation right. It will help business expand and create new jobs."
He says if after tax business profits are increased by 10.6%, it will result in:
· Lowering the unemployment rate by 0.52 percentage points,
· Increase total business investment by $6.2 billion dollars, and
· increase personal income of Canadians by 2.4%
“All that being said, there are risks” adds Meyers “ There is still Global financial turmoil, an above par and volatile Canadian dollar, there could be a surge in interest rates. Let’s face it Canada is one of the most expensive jurisdictions in which to do business.”
Business as usual is not an option says Meyers, who says there needs to be leadership that will develop new strategies, new markets, innovation for new and improved solutions, new products and services, and careful analysis of how to develop cash flow to make the new strategies reality “Vision without money is simply an hallucination”.
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Posted by: Andyfreeze on January 19 2011 8:27 AM
Bought and paid for shill for the bankster elites IMO. So much wrong with what he says you could write a book on it. People like to hear things are swell... he can sure sell them the spin they want to hear.
First off the era of deregulation of finance may have brought the country short term economic growth as measured by GDP, but it has impoverished the country long term hurting the economic sustainability for future generations.
Did his business models predict the US housing collapse... no they projected based on historical evidence that things would always go up... historical models do not account for human emotion and limits to the ability for stagnant wages of the middle class to sustain the debt based economy. These guys try to create the market through deception and not reality.
Watson Wyatt is about private equity capital representing the likes of Leman Brothers and their epic collapse... surely they are not the ones with credibility to recognize the winner economists. Surely Leman was an indictment of their business model in the financial sector.
People that call for complete deregulation of the financial sector... to the point that the financial sector is making their own rules printing their own money lining their own pockets at the expense of the real economy. Complete ludicrous to listen to these people anymore.
The notion of the slowly recovery is about buying time for the criminals of Wall Street and nothing more. Our capital markets are being gutted and consolidated with US Federal Reserve funny money and that is the reality. Our capital markets no longer represent the economy as a whole for the working middle class in their savings and investments, but rather the interests of the banking elite exclusively.
He can point to growth from 2009 to 2010, but ignores the 2007 or 2008 to 2010 which is a more real comparison for obvious reasons (stock markets went up 50% in the 1931 recovery as well)... comparing the numbers after a collapse to show growth. Its disingenuous at best.
He argues the lowest common denominator trickle down failed economic policy that got America where it is today, which is essentially a wealth transfer from the working class to the off shore banking elite class.
All his figures are based on hypothetical mathematical models where you get the answer you want buy generating the input variables... no different than global warming projections. The end result is a biased outcome that ignores the realities of dynamics beyond the scope of their mathematical models. He ignores that 12% HST is essentially a flat tax on after tax income, thereby penalizing business that employ people.. transferring the tax burden to the small service (employment based) businesses that creates 90% of employment to subsidize the corporate tax cuts to his multinational clients.
He says, “Vision without money is simply an hallucination” True, the only thing I can agree with... but who is the one with the money? The people he advocates for are the financial sector that want to generate their money through visions of financial engineered business that has no rules to ensure they are actually working for the greater good of the economy and working class savers whoms money they envision using... instead they harvest peoples finance with little to no accountability for their vision, and that is the crux of the problem.
My grandpa built a business that is the gold standard here in BC, and he didn't do it through lowest common denominator political chicanery to produce a mirage of efficiency and financial harvesting opportunities. Grandpa's business model was to respect all aspects of the business with quality work received by the customer, fair profits for the ownership, and the gold standard for his employees. His unionized employees had the best benefits and the highest pay of all private sector unions in the province always setting the gold standard... the company has never been involved in the Chamber of Commerce type (HST) politics.. despite this they became the largest electrical contractor in the province with a solid business.
Those with the lowest common denominator 'efficiency' solutions are the ones that lack the real vision IMO. They don't offer progress, but rather a model to subsidize finance at the expense of real economic growth.
I can almost guarantee his mathematical models ignore the elephant in the room as exemplified by the following chart.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/US_National_Debt_Chart_20101.gif
The chart explains why commodity prices will rise as they become a more real reflection of value, but this is only a mirage and not a 'slowly' economic recovery. The chart above will wreck havoc I guarantee to the mathematical models these financial engineers are trying to sell us. Sure PG will see a short term gain from this debt reality monetary inflation, as we have already seen from the foreign buyers of our lumber and pulp among others. The short term mirage of growth has nothing to do with HST and lowering of corporate tax rates though.
Children today will be essentially financial slaves... they won't live in the same country we live in today when it comes to our current standard of living and past freedom of enterprise and opportunity... and we can blame the financial engineers and their mathematical models for that.
AIMHO