Maybe they are big cat collectors? That might explain things. Or maybe easily distracted by shinny objects they think will keep them in power?

I think Ben's point is valid... IMO if you are in cabinet you should be above campaigning for the party leader and should be working for the whole party and the whole province until one either steps down from cabinet or is removed from cabinet.

I think George Abbott will be the likely winner in a preferential ballot vote.

Probably second round votes will get Abbott in. First round will go to either Christy Clark or Kevin Falcon, but they are too polarizing to get past a first ballot with a majority. To know who will win this I believe one has to look at who the second choice will be for the last three placing candidates supporters... and I see Dejong alone putting Abbott over the top. I don't see Clark or Falcon supporters lending support to the other front runner on a second ballot when they are in a horse race of their own... one only has to look at their public conversations to see that.

Time Will Tell

Good call Ben!
I am not so sure Falcon will win the Liberal party leadership,but even if he does,he is pretty much un-electable at the ballot box.
I would think the party is going to bear that in mind at the convention.
My guess is George Abbott.
I also think the party will shut Clark right out, and it will be interesting to see how it goes.
And I agree...Bond and Bell will pay a price for throwing their support behind Falcon.
Doesn't even make sense,really.
They have to know just how unpopular Falcon is with the voters of B.C.and they are the ones that will matter in 2013...assuming it takes that long to call an election.
Bond and Bell supporting falcon makes me question what their true motives really are,and I am sure I am not alone.

Pat Bell and Shirley Bond did not throw thier support behind Falcon of thier own will. The local business owners that supported them through the last couple of elections told them who they will support. Had they not done this they would surely be without huge campain contributions in the future elections. You have to remember these are politicos and the only people that they have to listen to are the ones that fund campains not those that foot the taxes right or wrong.

Here are the number of "likes" on facebook. Let's see how accurate a reflection it is of how the vote will go.

Clark - 1,802
Falcon - 672
Abbott - 536
de Jong - 344
Stilwell - 211
Mayne - 51

So, that is 1,802 for Clark and 1,814 for others.

Does this tell us something about who could get out the vote the best at a provincial election? Maybe.

We probably have little knowledge about how well facebook works as an indicator of popularity as opposed to an indicator of the strength of a support network. The two are not necessarily the same.

It also does not tell us where the support is. Who is "winning" which ridings. In order to maximize the number of seats, that becomes the critical factor.

In either case, the two ideological "extremes" in the party formed by a coalition of sorts are evident, as is the urban-rural split, I think.

As far as Pat and Shirley go, we really do not know whether they chose to support a candidate in order to enhance their future in parliament or to be up front with supporting the North.

I think no matter who wins, it would be an idiot leader who would not keep the two in cabinet at some senior level. That would not help the party in a provincial election, I believe.

Try this.

Falcon = Campbell

Pat and Shirley support Campbell.

Ergo, Pat and Shirley support Falcon.

I agree, a Falcon led BCLiberal party is a non-lectable party unless the NDP screws up, or Falcon shows otherwise in the next two years.

But people do not change colours that fast. He is who he is, and winning a leadership campaign will only make that lad worse, in my opinion.

It goes like this, people:

When they don't say anything and don't take a stand or express their choice - they are called spineless fence sitters, too afraid to take sides or make a decision!

When they do take a stand, make a choice, act individually - they will pay a price!?

What is it? What do we want? Spineless dithering?

Sure looks like it.

As for which Liberal has a chance in a provincial election? Question: Who will be elected by the NDP to be its leader?

I agree gus...Falcon = Campbell,and that won't win anyone, anything.
As far as the numbers for Clark go...I don't read too much into that.
What happens at the convention still remains to be seen,and I think the Liberal old boy's club will have a suprise in store for her.
I still get the feeling that there is a bit of a candidate/in your face blitz going on, with all the Campbell lackies running for the leadership.
It seems to be a concerted effort to hold on to power at any cost, by giving the impression to the public that they are a party divided.
Im actual fact,they are not at all.
Seems it is the old "baffle 'em with bullsh**t"approach.
I still suspect that the final outcome and who get's the big chair, has already been decided.
In any event,it's going to be very interesting!

"I still suspect that the final outcome and who get's the big chair, has already been decided."

?

Party members are going to cast their vote and the votes will be counted after voting has closed.

Your suspicion is founded on wishful conjecture.

Andyfreeze .... there is no convention to vote for a leader. As PG says, the votes will be cast by the full membership. The question is whether the members votes will count as one vote, one person, or a prorated vote based on each riding having an equal weighting. THAT is what the "convention" will decide, the voting method.

In that convention, each riding will be allowed the same number of delegates. If they do not have all the delegates they are allowed, other ridings may fill the empty spots.

They will also decide whether they will be using a preferential ballot.

You have to remember that the BCLiberals do not have a seat in all the ridings. If those BCLiberals are smart, they will vote for a moderate or left leaning individual if they wish to have a chance at winning the NDP seat.

For those BCLiberals that have an eye on the long term goal rather than the short term goal, even if they are normally leaning to the right of the party, they will realize they will have to move the party to the left a touch in order to have a chance at governing another term.

But then, most of them are not really deep thinkers, are they? ;-)

Perhaps PrinceGeorge...perhaps not.
It depends on where and to whom the no-chance candidates throw their support base after the first or second ballot.
Even though they can still vote for whoever they wish,there is still a lot of power in that when it comes to deciding the outcome.
It has always been that way at leadership conventions.
Which is why certain candidates run who have zero chance of winning.
There is power in their support base, and it also provides leaverage for a great portfolio later on as a big thank-you from the winner!

Gus has the correct explanation. If you doubt that the votes don't count or that it does not matter because the big chair has already been decided then you must apply the same reasoning when it comes to the election of any leader of the BCNDP, past, present or future!

If you think that everything is corrupted wouldn't that cast a rather dim light on our democratic processes, the ones we are so proud of and wish to export to other less fortunate countries?

Before I condemn something I usually wait until I have some ironclad evidence!

apester:-"You have to remember these are politicos and the only people that they have to listen to are the ones that fund campaigns not those that foot the taxes...."

Prince George:-"If you think that everything is corrupted wouldn't that cast a rather dim light on our democratic processes, the ones we are so proud of and wish to export to other less fortunate countries?"

'Nuf said.

"It depends on where and to whom the no-chance candidates throw their support base after the first or second ballot."

Andyfreeze. That is true for a "normal" or "traditional" leadership convention. But there won't be one, so there is no opportunity to participate in that kind of king/queen making.

I have to agree with Gus. Falcon is Campbells man. They go back a long way. Campbell did not come to Prince George for a going away party. He came to Prince George to work the crowd and drum up support for his buddy Falcon. Bell and Bond owe their political careers to Campbell, and so that is why they are supporting Falcon. We all know that they always do what Gordie tells them.

Christie Clark has a lot of support in the general populace, however these people do not get a vote. She has a lot less support in the Liberal party per se; So the front runners within the party are likely Falcon and DeJong.

In a way I hope that Falcon wins, because he will be easier to defeat in an election. He is such a bozo.

For those people who think that the next election will be between the Liberals and NDP, it is time to wake up and smell the roses., In the next election, you will have other parties running, and also a number of Independents, and at the end of the day who knows what will happen.

The days of the limited choice of Liberal/NDP are over. If you dont think that change can take place overnight, give Hozni Marbaruk a call.

The best thing that could happen for forestry and the environment in British Columbia is if Forest Minister Pat Bell were to be removed from the forest post. Every leadership hopeful except Falcon would see to this in a flash.

On the credit side, Bell has done a great job of marketing dimension lumber to China. He has done little on the value-added file.

On the debit side, Bell has destroyed sustainable forest management in British Columbia and has reduced forestry in B.C. to the status of a banana republic. Stumpage revenues to the Crown are a public rip-off. Foreign ownership and control now exceed the worst nightmares of past Social Credit administrations.

Under Bell, B.C. is for sale.

The BC Liberals are in a mess. God help us if any of them survive.

A general election in the fall would be nice. So Christy would be the one to hope for.

Very well said Foxtrot. We are being sold out to foreign ownership, and as long as these clowns can line their pockets, I don't think they give a rats donkey about the people of this province!

Can someone tell me why Cambell Wouldn't step down and let his deputy premier run the party and the province into the next election???

I understand thats what Danny Williams in Newfoundland did??

Foxtrot, 'sustainable forest management' is a complete myth so long as there is a government in power that encourages inflation.

And even the NDP would do that, if they were returned to office. They know no better.

Value-added only happens when there is a MARKET for the end product. And one that can return all the additional costs, plus a profit, in price.

When that market is present someone will step up to fill it ~ just try and stop them.

When it isn't present, when all the costs plus profit can't be recovered in price, engaging in value-added just to give someone a job is even more useless than having that person dig a hole and then fill it in again.

socredible,

Is it a market for value-added products that is missing or access to British Columbia's timber on an open market that is missing?

Market for value-added products is generally missing. One that CAN, and will, pay the cost of the value adding. on an ongoing basis.

The US Pacific Northwest had probably the closest thing to a 'pure' open market for timber after there was a virtual cessation of US National Forest Timber Sales due to environmental pressure.

The mills that survived there, the ones that didn't have a large private forest land base of their own, had to compete for whatever other private timber was available. And most of what came out of that in the way of survivors and new mills were NOT value added operations, but stud mills.

Cutting the lowliest of commodity lumber products, the 8 or 9 or 10 foot 2x4. The reasons:- if there's a market for anything, there's always a market for studs; virtually any log will make them; there are far lower costs in training, supervision, marketing, etc., as well as far lower Capital costs for the plant itself; a lot of the 'fall down' still represents costs that can be recovered; and probably most important of all, they turn over quickly. Sometimes they can be sawn, and sold, and the payment for them collected before the mill even has to pay for the logs.

It is exceedingly difficult to value add any product that's already costly. If you look at the greatest success stories in value adding here, invariably they involve upgrading some material that had very little value in it in the first place. There are exceptions, and they succeed so long as their products are 'specialties'. Soon as someone tries to 'commoditise' them, by expanding the volume in which they're made, we lose both the specialty manufacturer and his commoditising replacement.