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The Economic Picture: One Man's Opinion

By 250 News

Wednesday, August 23, 2006 03:49 AM


On one hand, you have Quesnel which is saying that the beetle kill of the forest will result in that community hitting the wall in about seven to ten years.  On the other hand,  there is  PG where we are saying its fast forward, all guns a blazing! 

It makes you wonder who is right and who is wrong, given that both communities (at least to this point) have been relying on the woods industry to fuel their respective economies.

That will continue in the future unless of course we strike oil, which until this date is a long shot.

No, Shell Oil has not, (nor has any other oil company)  rented office space in Prince George.

Yes we are having some incredible growth in the housing market compared to say the late 90’s, we needed that. But to suggest that the city will grow rapidly in the next ten years is, at best, a stretch.

We will get some spin off from the pipe lines coming through the area, we will get some spin off from Alcan's expansion, and we will see perhaps some wood pellet mills built to take advantage of the beetle wood.

But there are other signs that do not paint a very inviting picture. Down town for example is not about to bust out at the seams.  The residential development by Ghiai  is not going through the roof and the fact that a couple of stores are set to close their doors is a testament  to the future.

UNBC faces its own challenge. We now have Kelowna and Kamloops competing for our students. Yes we can add more aboriginals to the student base, but the moment we exceed 20% that could and likely will create a back lash in trying to attract other students. We already have an aboriginal population of about 10% and there is a break off point.

So where are we in 2006?  Well riding a high, but make no mistake, there are no iron clad guarantees the trend will continue.

I’m Meisner and that is one man’s opinion. 


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Comments

Ben, with all those logging trucks pulling pine beetle infested logs about, spreading the little creatures everywhere, it's no doubt that it won't be long before every pine tree in the North is eaten up. I think our ownly chance of addressing the devastation caused by the pine beetle is to contact the culinary arts program at CNC to see if these beetles can be put into a gourment dish.

Wood pellets and and beetle stew, we just may make it through the cold winters to come.
"Yes we can add more aboriginals to the student base, but the moment we exceed 20% that could and likely will create a back lash in trying to attract other students"

This is an interesting statement, and I am at a bit of a loss as to how to interpret it. My understanding was that First Nations' studies was to be an integral part of the University's offerings so it is no surprise that a large aboriginal component exists among the students, although not only First Nations' students take these course.

UNBC is also strong in other areas and is, I believe, considered to be a pretty decent science school particularly for a university of such young age.

What concerns me is that Ben's comments about the consequences of an increase in aboriginal students, if true, reflects badly on non-aboriginal students' attitudes towards First Nations people. I would be appalled if it were true.

In my (biased political) opinion, the main reason for declining enrollment and the hunt for students to fill places is a consequence of Provincial post-secondary education funding policy. Restraints were taken off course fee increases after the first year the Liberals formed government, and the fees have risen sa lot since then. As a consequence, students can't afford to attend. If the fees were more affordable the universities would be brimming over with students.

I agree with what ammonra says about the 20% backlash break off point. What if the Natives would refuse to attend UNBC if non-aboriginal attendance exceeds 80% ???

Who is the one with the problem here, if there is indeed a problem?

I don't agree with ammonra's reasoning as far as declining enrollment goes and the reason for it.

Taxpayers are already funding the whole thing (including the free education of some) and it is not unreasonable to expect students to pay for their education choice since they will reap the benefits of a higher education in the form of vastly higher salaries for the rest of their lives.

Beatle wood is a Godsend, if we work it right. Current mill capacity can not meet the need for processing all this wood so, there's good opportunity to build new primary and value added mills to deal with this situation and yes, 8 to 10 years is sufficient time to pay off the capital costs of doing this. At the end of this time, I hope we finally get our act together to focus on more value added output.

As for downtown, we have to look at a forced community plan for the downtown and the commitment of money to make it happen. There're plenty of examples of larger cities in the '70s who ignored their "inner-city" decay until they were forced to commit to more costly revitalization programs so, now is the time to plan, spend the money and force progress on the downtown for the benefit of us all... Tax the heathens 'til it hurts!

No new business is going to make significant impact in our downtown until we show them our commitment to the downtown.

As for UNBC, I think we can look at the easy job market for identifying why enrolment is down. Kids getting family income earning jobs in unskilled labour are truly drawing away from continuing education. Not that I'm against labour jobs however, I feel even if one chooses to become a mill worker or rig-pig, they should still first get an education or trade in order to ensure their marketability in future years.

In general, there are more choices for people and the community is maturing... in more than just one way. A local business owner once stated that if we didn't have UNBC, his sons would have gone away to university and, with 80% likelihood, would not have returned to PG. Looking around PG today, I see a far more diversified community of multi-generations living here. In the past, people typically came here to work and then left after a while or when retiring. Now we have 2, 3 and 4 generations of the same family living in PG and most of this have happened in just the past 15 years.

Yes, we're becoming a more livable city and have more to offer than work. We have sports, recreational facilities, post-secondary institutions, community arts, parks and leisure facilities, retirement communities and care facilities, extensive transportation corridors and connections to the world.

These are all things that are improving and expanding... how can we come to any conclusion other than this contributing to the growth of our community.

The best is yet to come...
IMO PG would be a perfict city at about 120,000 people. Any bigger and it becomes a zoo like those other big cities. I would like to see a stable employment base that is well diversified and can support a city of that size, then close the gates to outsiders. lol

As for the university. I can see Bens point. It now costs a student about a quarter of a million dollars to get a university degree by my calculations. About $7000 a year in tuition at UNBC, plus another $15,000 minimum for living expenses, and then add in the lose in wages over a labour job in those years of another $45-60,000 a year over four years and the economics of a higher education are a huge risk factor when high paying educated jobs are monopolized by the baby boomer generation for at least the next ten years.

Considering the substantial opportunity cost of an education and the financial risk of the investment it should come as no surprise that students put huge emphysis in the reputation of the institution they get their degree from. It can make the investment worthwhile or make it a bust. Universities with lots of subsidized students, or lower quality of students can create a handicap for the student in the job market. Its a fact of the real world, and has nothing to do with a students racism towards other students. IMO the perception is more important than the education to 95% of the people out there.

That said at $580 for a class at UNBC and a further $200 for books is a lot of money for any student to finance when they require 40 courses at that rate to make any of it worth while. Its a $30,000 commitment by the student without ever factoring in living expenses, and only the promise of a $10 an hour starting rate when they are done.

With that kind of investment a student will lean towards quality of life if similar services are offered elsewhere for a comparable price.
If one were to take an "Aboriginal studies course" what would be the return on investment as to earning big dollars (I was gonna say big bucks)(but political correctness stopped me), after completing this course? Jest wunderin'.
Chadermando...

Education is inexpensive... moron parents are typically cheap... buying $40 k trucks but, no money for kids to go to university i.e. $75 per month RESP contribution = approx. $35 K for school.

p.s. current university system means 90 - 95% of students can live at home.
This University was a bust from the get go. It was built by Politicians to secure votes, and little or no long term studies were done to see how it could be sustained over the years. With a limited population in North Central British Columbia, which has not grown in the past 10 years, and a 38% drop out rate in the High Schools in the area, along with a decrease in enrollments for the School Districts, plus the availability of more jobs for the next 5 years than the past 5 years, where do you expect to get your UNBC Students from.

Aboriginals can only make up for a small percentage of the students required to make this University viable. No one from Kamloops/Kelowna will come this way if they can get the same education at home. Nor will they come from the Greater Vancouver area except when they cannot pass the entrance exams at Uvic, Simon Fraser, or UNBC, No doubt they would then try Kamloops, and Kelowna, and Prince George would be the last on their list.

As usual we have a double standard for Students. On the one hand we say that it is great that they can stay at home and attend University here, and reduce the cost of their education, and on the other hand we expect other Students to leave home and come to Prince George to get their education.

If we cant attract students to this University then in the very near future we will run out of students in the immediate area, and we will be looking at declining enrollments at UNBC. Not a good thing.
Palopu... "This University was a bust from the get go."

Can we hear more pearls of wisdom from one so wise. LOL


You figure it out QuasiMe. $56 Million per year to employ 700 people to educate 3500 Full Time Equivilent Students, with a decline in Enrollments. You do the Math.
Who pays for the tuition, books, and costs for Indians to attend university?
Do they pay all costs themselves, or is it another freebie paid by the government?
If it is free, then add that to the cost of operating the university.
Just asking?
Don't know where they would get the money from to pay for attending a university for years.
I know the whites pay-but do not know if the Indians do also.
No, you're the one with the issue... you do the math.

What is the price per employment or student that is acceptable? Personally, if I were you and not wanting to look too dim, I'd calculate the cost of operations at other universities... group them into large centres, medium and small. The tuition recovery vs. government funding per credit earned and then placing an economic value of the education... individual value and value to the community. Included in that component would be the lost value of those who would not attend if the facilities were not located in the local community. (You may want to reflect on the studies of 14 years ago that identified that 70% of northern students attending UBC, SFU and UVic dropped out in the first 2 years, largely due to difficulty adapting to culture change along with the added costs of living away from home).

Once you've completed that analysis and perhaps determine we're not graduating sufficient students to meet market demands, calculate the social impact, including the cost of immigration needed to accommodate the shortfall. When that's completed and you actually have some numbers to begin the discussion as to why you still believe the university is a bust, maybe you'd carry more weight in your supposition other than coming across as yet another bar stool polisher with inebriated issues to espouse.

As long as we’re on the subject, what’s the acceptable taxpayer cost of funding grade school and high school… probably even less return on “investment”, eh?

In the end, once we’re fully convinced tax dollars are being wasted on education, we should likely just return to the original system… those who can foot the whole bill themselves can be educated and the subservient hordes that can’t, can provide domestic service to the others… I always thought the feudal system got a bad rap. LOL
As usual Quasi rather than answer the specific questions, as to where you plan on getting the students to attend this University you go off on a tangent to try and impress me with your intelligence. As you are no doubt aware BC Stats forcasts at best a 2% increase in populaiton growth in the North Central Interior in the next 20 years. So we can safely assume that at best we can maintain the status quo.

The question is can you operate a viable University with 3500 Full Time Equivalent students or less.

The Prince George College was hyped much the same as the University years ago and it now sits empty in the middle of a shopping centre. How did that happen????

My experience with a lot of people in Prince George, especially the pseudo intelligentsia is that they are bereft of common sense, and practical thinking, and usually incapable of ever admitting they are wrong, or that they could have, or may have been mistaken.

The University of Kelowna has already surpassed UNBC with 3900 students and forcasts of 7500 in the very near future.

The proof is in the pudding Quasi, get your numbers up or admit that this University is a bust.
Palopu... sorry, not trying to impress anyone with my intelligence... I guess it's just a relative perspective you're observing.

As usual, you still haven't made any relevant statement of support to your ignorant supposition, "This University was a bust from the get go."
So far you not the Kelowna is bigger... so what? McGill is too... what's your point.

No, I'm not aware of Stats Can prediction of 2% population growth for the region over the next 20 years... though I can readily argue the erroneous make up of such a prediction, if not question the authenticity of your making such a statement... the latter being more likely in my opinion. I'll leave it up to you to prove me wrong... alternatively, I'm assuming you just lied.

As for people who make statements such as, "My experience with a lot of people in Prince George, especially the pseudo intelligentsia is that they are bereft of common sense, and practical thinking, and usually incapable of ever admitting they are wrong, or that they could have, or may have been mistaken.", I typically can't understand why those people choose to espouse their issues in such a public forum i.e. save it for your therapist.
Airport expansion… then distribution companies such as UPS? Distribution companies need a lot of part time employees, UNBC and CNC could be a source for employees. UNBC & CNC can use good employment situation to attract students? The world goes around.
Ain’t it great.
Quasi. Type BC Stats in Canada Yahoo, and do some reading. All the information you need on population expansion and decline in BC is readily available. In addition this information was in a local paper last week. (Guess you missed it)

The mention of Kelowna was simply to show that even though this University was started afer UNBC it has now surpassed UNBC for students and will continue to do so. Dont forget that at one time UNBC was counting on students from Kamloops, Kelowna, area to come to Prince George. In fact I know some students who did just that. I doubt if it will continue.

Insofar as the University being a bust, you have to think in terms of the cost to run the facility relative to the benefits derived. Is the intent of the University to provide teaching positions, and union jobs, or is it to educate students. At what point is it not viable.

With 700 employees (Faculty and Union) and 3500 Full Time Equivalent Students the ratio is 5 Students for every Employee. At what point would you say it was no longer viable.

700 to 3000
700 to 2500
700 to 2000

The University must increase its student population in order to survive, some rumours are it will absorb CNC., however without an increase in Student population it is not viable.


Why do I not get a response to my posting?
Who pays for the aboriginals, (maybe that is what went wrong-I said Indians), to attend university?
I am aware, or I assume I am, the white people have to pay their own expenses, for tuition, books, accommodations etc.
Do the attending aboriginals add to the cost of the operation of the university?
Canada is a multi-cultural, multi-racial society which means that all taxpayers (not only white people) are paying when a certain racial group (because of government policy) gets a free education.

It means as well that working/taxpaying First Nations people contribute the same.

I prefer them to get special education assistance so they can all become self-supporting rather than being dependent on hand-outs.

After all the Natives agreed to "co-exist with the newcomers and share all the natural resources and technology" according to the Grand Chief on a CBC television interview.

I have no problem with that.

If we can afford to fight an expensive foreign war against people who have never attacked us I think we can be generous enough to give one of our minorities a much deserved hand to get ahead.





I totally agree with you Diplomat, however I question the Governments, and the Universitys interest in increasing the Native participation. It seems to me it took on a lot more importance when they realized that they had an enrollment problem, and that the Natives could help the situation.

We are getting the same situation with the President of the Chamber of Commerce suggesting because of the labour shortage in the area, that we should start looking at, and training Natives for some of these jobs. I think it is a great idea, however again it only gets mentioned when there are no alternatives.

Somehow this looks a lot like Political and Business expedience rather than a real concern for the betterment of Natives, or Mankind, however I could be wrong.
Pal:"Somehow this looks a lot like Political and Business expedience..."

You are probably right. Still, the Natives would be wise to take advantage whenever an opportunity arises, no matter what the real motive is.

Of course, one shouldn't become a carpenter or electrician, for instance, just because there is an opening for training.

One has to feel an honest desire and possess some talent/aptitude for a trade, calling or whatever.

Nothing is worse then getting stuck doing something that one doesn't have a genuine liking for.

In any case, I wish them luck and good fortune.