I'd like to reiterate a comment I posted under the 'Chinese Plywood in PG Market' article.

"As a region / province / country if we don't find a way to attract investors who want to manufacture value added wood products we're doomed, might as well start learning another language".

IMO we'll see more production curtailments due to poor market conditions in the coming months, in spite of our glut of bug kill pine.

Frankly it's too bad that there doesn't seem to be a way to communicate to the lower mainland just how desperate our provinces plight is. Hpoefully Prof. Cohen (or someone) can make some of the people who need to be paying attention start to heed the situation, and focus on utilizing our resources for more than just the framing of houses.

"the only way the Canadian manufacturers have been able to compete is to build the high end furniture here and import the low end stuff from Asia."

High end furniture produced in Canada. Now that is news to me. How much of that high end furniture do we export to Italy, Scandinavia, etc .... you know, those people who are known to manufacture high end furniture for export.

GNP??? or is that GDP?

Here is the list of GDP by industry for BC up to 2005 ...

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/bus_stat/bcea/BCEAchnd.asp

The three categories which directly involve forestry total $10 billion of the $131 billion total. That is about $3 billion less than the combination of tourism and high tech ...

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/bus_stat/bcea/satacct.asp

Information and cultural industries - close to $6 billion

And then there is almost $30 billion for finance and insurance.

Employment is found where the money is. Primary industries simply are not worker intensive anymore. Servicing the population is where much of the money is spent and thus the employment is found. Keeping us educated, healthy, fed, entertained, sheltered, and moving, etc.

The growth in the 3 direct forest related categories was 19%. The growth in all industries was 25.5%

Notables
- finance and insurance 26.5%
- oils and gas 33.5%
- information and cultuiral industries 61%
- computer and electronics manuf 104%

The MPB is a few blips on the screen to those in the lower mainland ... it is barely a single blip to those in the rest of Canada ....

The sooner we face the reality of that, the sooner we can start to take care of ourselves since no one else will, just as we don't give a tinker's damn if Oshawa is suffering ... which reminds me, does anyone even know what Oshawa is?

Yes, I know where it is-and who says they are suffering???
I have a hunch all the hype about Prince George becoming a bustling viable city with a promise of population growth is some kind of myth, and those who have hefty mortgages brought on by the fantastic predictions will be struggling to maintain a rosy lifestyle.
Alcohol related businesses will remain stable, the gaming centre will be busy, and of course food suppliers will survive. Pawn shops will fill up, and be hard pressed to find purchasers for the goods they take in. Prostitutes will have to survive on cut rates. Bankruptcies will become the norm. Crime will increase.
Is it possible we will see a mass exodus from
this city once again?
Is any or all of this possible????
Can it all be avoided????
Where and when will peace be on the horizon?
Are we ever destined to know the true meaning of that word? Peace on earth would surely bring about good will towards our fellow man!
Let it be.

Owl, the answer to your question is the new Camero factory.

Owl, the answer to your question is the new Camero factory.

did a smily face that didn't work...

I think you forget that it is the trade balance that underlines the value of our dollar and trade usually involves goods. One primary dollar (trade dollar) can be spent, who knows, but at least 7 times over again in the community before it leaves the community? That would make the $10 Billion in forestry primary dollars creating $70 Billion dollars of spin off activity in the other sectors for a total of $80 billion of the $130 or so Billion in provincial GDP? Hypothetically speaking of course if all $10 Billion in forestry revenue went to wages and investments that stayed in BC? How much import dollars do the other sectors bring in, and how is that distributed in the economy?

So the question for BC should be how does BC make up for the primary trade dollars BC will lose from the forestry sector, and also to make each trade dollar most effective, how do we get dollars that will multiply more by staying in the community longer before importing away?

In this context would certian mines and hydro dam proposals with near no employees and huge off-shore shareholder profits, or would shipping jobs and manufacturing type trade dollars be more effective in the multiplier effect. Maybe even tourism.

Being a resource province the sadest thing is when our resources are exported for off-shore foreign shareholder profits. BC and its citizens gain very little for the cost.

Trusted thats a little over the top. The part about PG not knowing peace. lol

Its the people working for Private Industry and Private for Profit Companies that pay taxes that pay for all Government Jobs, Politicians, School Teachers, Universitys, etc; Any entity that is paid for by the Government is paid out of tax dollars, so in essence these functions are a cost to taxpayers. If we continue to lose tax paying jobs in the Interior, and BC as a whole, at some point we will have to look at reducing the cost of Government, and associated functions. These same working taxpayers are the ones who support business by spending their money.

The only way you can stop or slow down the loss of jobs and business in Canada from being taken over by the China, Brazil, etc is to not buy their product, however unless you can produce a product in Canada that can compete with the cheap Chinese product, people are not going to do this, and therefore over time will actually destroy their own nests.

Take Wal-Mart for example. This is an American owned company that imports 90% of the product it sells from China, and sells it in Canadian Stores. We as Canadians (Myself excluded) go to Wal-Mart and buy the product because it is cheap, and therefore at some point kill off any Canadian Company that could produce this product. To make it even more interesting Wal-Mart is building huge stores in China to sell its product. To make it even more interesting we are going to establish a **Super Port** in Prince Rupert so that these commodities can get to the US consumer faster, and therefore accelerate the demise of Canadian and American companies.

It all comes down to Cheap Labour and Cheap Transportation and Distribution, and North American Companies can no longer compete because of similiar Transportation & Distribution costs, and high wages.

Another example is a Company in Vancouver a few years ago produced fine paper (Computer, copy, paper etc;) and shpped it to markets in California. This had been going on for years. Guess What? They relocated their plants in China,and now, either buy their pulp products there or import them from other areas,to make fine paper, and then ship the product back to their customers in California. The end result is the closing of the Industry in BC, and the loss of all associated jobs. Production, Shipping, and Distribution.

This moving of major companies to Chinese and other areas of Southeast Asia has been going on for sometime and is not a good thing for us in the long term, however because the same Companies that operate here, and in the USA are the ones setting up shop in these other Countries, they in the long term could care less, as they think in terms of being *Multi National Companies*. and Universal Markets.

What happens in Towns and Citys like Prince George, is of little or no consequence to them. It is a big world out their and we are a miniscule part of it.

We need to find other ways to create employment and to become more self sufficient. Buying locally produced products when ever possible would be a start.

You have to be a Proffessor to relize the woods industry is going for the dumper?

Cheers

Palopu and Chadermando

Here are some stats on exports by major categories for each province.
http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/Provoutlook_e.pdf

First thing to note is that energy is over 1/4 of Canada's export, with both Alberta and Newfoundland leading the field in that it makes up about 70% of each province's exports. It makes up 60% of New Brunwick's exports and 48% of Saskatchewan's.

The automotive industry makes up over 40% of Ontario's exports with about the same percentage in BC being provided by the forestry industry. In Quebec, the highest single industry is the industrial goods producing industry at 30%.

What most of these provinces have in common, other than Quebec, is that they are dominated by one sector so they are vulnerable to the global whims of that particular sector. Thus the up and down cycles.

Diversification is certainly not only the need in communities such as Prince George, it is also the need in BC as a whole when one looks at the reality of these figures.

When you divide the export income by the provincial population you find that the export income per person in BC is about $8,000. The Canadian average is $12,600. Albeta leads the pack at $24,600 with Newfoundland runner up at $15,600. Next comes Ontario at $14,300 and New Brunswick at $14,200.

If you take energy out of the equation, Ontario leads the pack at the same $14,300. Next is Quebec at $8,800, Manitoba at $7,200, Alberta at $6,700 and BC at $6,200. The Canadian average is $10,000.

Whichever way you slice it, BC is not pulling its weight in the goods producing export market. So why is this province's standard of living higher than the goods exporting figures indicate? (a rhetorical question) :-)

So, any surprises? Anyone want to hang onto forestry for a few decades longer and watch even more jobs per unit of goods exported or produced disappear? Or do we want to take part in the world economy and produce stuff the other parts of the world want. You know, like Japan, Korea, VietNam, China ... and many European countries before them.

Step out of the woods for a while so that you can see the forest instead of just the trees.

Please do not misunderstand me. I am not saying abandon forestry. I am saying build on the strengths and venture into new territory as well. The lower mainland is doing that; we are not.

Note that the export figures are again just looking at part of the economic indicators.

We also have to see what we export to other provinces; look at what we import from outside the province and outside the country (at the moment Canada has a considerable trade surplus, thus the dollar is strong, which will put a damper on exports till a new equilibrium is reached); what services we export and import.

Remember, the $1 billion movie industry and the $9 billion tourist industry do not show up on these export stats. They are services, not goods, which are sold to people coming into the country bringing their cash.

Finally, the basic services such as health, education, transportation, construction, agri-food, etc. are all there to service the people who produce products to sell either to themselves or to others. Without those basic services paid either by the taxes from the workers and companies, or directly by the workers and companies, the companies could not procduce the products. Thus, however such basic services are provided, it is a cost of doing business.

And, of course, there are the non basic services such as entertainment, household goods, big people toys, vacation travel, etc. Much of those types of goods and services are paid to buy srvices and goods from outside the country.

If businesses do not need local feedstocks for their production, they will move to where the cost of doing business is the cheapest. Normally that is translated into where the cost of labour is the cheapest. Typically the cheaper the labour, the lower the quality of life, especially when one includes the number of gizmos people can buy with the money they earn into that quality of life equation.

That has been the main structural change over the last couple of decades, reflected best by outsourcing and clustered manufacturing where the clusters are tied to an international communication and transportation network.

Who is closest to that "new socio-econmic" reality? Vancouver or PG or Atlin?

Which community has the best quality of life? I think each one of us will have a different response to that.

As always, things are changing.

BTW, Dollars turned over 7 times? BS, but it will take an even longer post than this to explain.

Without going into a lot of detail I think that in addition to some of what Owl said, we also have to get in tune with some up to date 21st Century thinking.

(1) The total number of export dollars converted into a total number of dollars per Canadian mean absolutely nothing, other that it gives the impression of having some semblence of meaning.

(2) There is a huge increase in the exporting of products to other parts of the world, however this has taken place while the cost of producing these products, transportation, and associated costs have declined. (Contrary to what a lot of business people would tell you)

(3) Using lumber as an example you are now exporting probably 3 times the amount of lumber than you did 25/30 years ago, however you are doing it with less people, and with less production costs. Trees that get fallen by Machines, Rail cars that hold 3 times the lumber they did in the 50/60's and trains that are 3 times longer but are manned by 50% less personel. Planers that through computers can utilize more of the tree. Trucks that can haul more logs, etc;

(4) Oil/Gas is exported through pipelines that have increased capacity through looping etc; However there is little or no long term employment in a pipeline, however the dollar value of exported oil is huge. An example is the LNG pipeline that may be built in Prince Rupert to run Natural Gas to the USA. Once this plant is built it will at best employ 30 people, however the export dollars will be gigantic.

(5) Coal, Sulphur, Potash, Wheat Products. These are all produced by Huge Mining or Farming Corportations, and do not employ that many people but the export dollars attached to these Commodities are huge.

(6) Other than some busines from the film industry, I am not aware of much going on in Vancouver in terms of exports, or manufacturing. Other than forest products, or forest related products. Some produce (Greenhouse Tomatoes)

(7) The biggest single employer in British Columbia is the Government or Government controlled entities such as ICBC, WCB, Universities, Schools, Hospitals, BC Hydro, and of course the Government themselves. Federal, Provincial, Municipal, and Regional.

(8) Private Enterprise, and especially American entreprenuers are always ready to get into a situation where they can make some money. The fact that other than in the Mining, Forestry, Agriculture, Automobile, industries they are conspicous by their asbence in Canada should give you some indication that this Country has some problems when it comes to establishing new industry.

(9) To assume that we can produce products for other parts of the world at competitive costs to those produced in China, Southeast Asia, South America, Mexico, is just not true. We cant do it, unless we are going to work for a hell of a lot less than we are now.

(10) The time is fast approaching when we will have to start to look inward and produce and consume for our own needs first so that we can generate some jobs. At this point in time, with a few exceptions the best we can do is sell some home made crafts at a craft fair, and some farm products at a farmers market. If its not wood related we just dont do it.

"Trees that get fallen by Machines"

The machines are made where? ... Japan, Korea ..

"Rail cars that hold 3 times the lumber they did in the 50/60's"

The rail cars are made where? Possibly Quebec

"Planers that through computers can utilize more of the tree."

These optimizers are made where? .. Sweden ....

"Trucks that can haul more logs, etc;"

With any luck, some of these are actually made as close as Kelowna. We could not nab a company that made boxes .. they went to Salmon Arm instead.

In other words, the cost of production these days is less for manpower and more for machinery and technology, little of which is made in PG or BC, or even Canada ..... Thus, those parts of the province, country, world that supply the forest industry more and more actually perpetuate jobs in their own community by buying forest products from here. We are not the dominant beneficiaries anymore. Even the money paid to investors goes all over the world as does the interest on any money borrowed to finance operations.

So, by looking at gross income, as one does when looking at export figures, one really does not get the full picture of income distribution for purchasing of goods and services required to operate the industry.

"We cant do it, unless we are going to work for a hell of a lot less than we are now."

Strange that Switzerland, Luxemburg, Sweden, Norway, Germany, Austria, Italy, etc. can do it.

Work smarter, not harder.

Think of Bombardier in Quebec .... think of MDA in Vancouver .... http://www.mda.ca

Owl, if you are refering to Western Star trucks coming from Kelowna. Western Star no longer operates in Kelown. Freight Liner bought the company and closed the plant.

We have a big problem. Unless we start to restrict the out flow of profit from our country we will remaine, "Hewers of wood and carriers of water."

Cheers

Owl I agree that those European Countries you named can do it at this point in time, and we have been doing it ourselves for some time, however this is changing. It started years ago. Nortel was the first big Canadian Co., who closed down its plants in Quebec, and moved them lock, stock, and barrel to China. We have had a refinery in Kamloops (Ioco) I beleive, and one in Taylor that were completely dismanteled and taken to Korea, and South East Asia and put back to-gether.

A small City in China has approx 5 Million people.

Bombardier is probably the most Government subsidized company in Canada, and probably couldnt operate without taxpayers money.

Western Star Trucks in Kelowna actually imported the parts for these trucks from the USA Southern States. Georgia, North and South Carolina, Arkansas, etc; ((Cheap labour States)) and assembled them in Kelowna. This operation was highly subsidized by all level of Governments, and when the subsidies dried up, they moved the
assembly line to Oregon (Cheap labour State)

The larger Cities in Canada can survive longer under the present system, mainly because of a much larger and cheaper labour force, however towns in the interior like Prince George, Prince Rupert, Terrace, Kitimat, Smithers, Houston, Vanderhoof, etc; are dependent on Lumber,Mining,Cattle, etc and these industries are not expanding at this time.

The Interior of British Columbia is not condusive to attracting anything other than the most base industries, and for good reason. ((Look out the window)) -16 below, snow piled 15ft high on the street corners. Ice all over the place, and pitch dark. Industrie tends to locate in areas where there are large populations,and cheap labour, and a reasonable climate. That leaves us out.

Speculation about attracting industrie etc; is an interesting head game but the fact of the matter is it has never happened to any large degree in the history of this area.

Proof positive as to how it happens stares us in the face every day.

(1) Look at the population increase in the United States over the last 100 years compared to Canada.

(2) Look at the population increase in California over the last 100 years compared to British Columbia

(3) Look at the population increase in Southern British Columbia, Vancouver, Island, over the last 100 years compared to North Central British Columbia.

Its pretty obvious where the action is, and where the action will continue to be.