Stephane Dion finds himself in a hell of a fix.

To start with he has the problems that all compromise leaders have, namely that the votes that put him over the top were enemies going in. That means that a lot of Liberals both in and out of Caucus have a death wish for him.

Then he finds himself Mr. Nice Guy up against a politician who is rapidly proving to be one of the best we’ve seen for a long time. I don’t mean that, necessarily, as a compliment. I strongly oppose many of his deeds including preparing to stack the courts with right-wingers. The fact is that Stephen Harper knows what he’s doing although there may be a bit of Mair’s Axiom II here, namely, that you don’t have to be a ten in politics … you can be a three if everyone else is a two.

Now Mr. Dion finds himself faced with a discipline problem only part of which he has solved by turfing Joe Comuzzi out of Caucus. You will recall that while Comuzzi voted for the Harper budget, 11 others stayed away which isn’t much better. Some of them, like Stephen Owen, are highly thought of in the party and though Owen won’t be leading any revolts – he’s quitting and he’s not the type anyway – his abstention was a blow to Dion. Dion is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. He must be master of the ship yet to be that he may have to put a terminal hole in its hull.

I interviewed Dion on Channel 10 recently and some may remember that I predicted he would win the leadership. I was surprised to see how inept he was with an obvious question. Four dots … Indo-Canadian MP brings key Indo-Canadian votes to Dion … said MP has a father-in-law very much wanted for the Air India review … father-in-law doesn’t want to be subpoenaed … Dion to the surprise of many votes to let lapse that part of the Anti Terrorism bill that would have allowed such a subpoena to issue (remember this was a Liberal Bill when Dion was in Cabinet). I suggested that one might be tempted to connect those dots and Dion went ballistic. It wasn’t the outrage that startled me – that would have been the appropriate defense if the suggestion was true or not. No, it was the unpreparedness … the suggestion that somehow I had asked a dirty question and all this after a columnist for the National Post had written about it and the Prime Minister had asked Dion in the House about it.

I honestly thought that Dion, by his obvious decency and what I perceived as political acumen, might lead the Liberals out of the wilderness in time for the next election. Now I must say that I think one of my close Liberal friends is right to say that it will be 8 years and at least one more leader before that can happen.

I don’t think many of us thought that the “natural governing party” would come apart at the seams but it looks at this time and from this vantage point that this is precisely what is happening.