Kinda like a car dealership putting a positive spin on future sales? Time will tell. I'll wait.

A 1% increase in enrolments would be 36 students. A 2% increase would be 73. This is not a very big increase projection, and they dont sound all that positive about it.

I think Don is low balling on the conservative side, cleaning things up, so that the university is well positioned to take advantage of its strengths once the new Sports Center is on-line next year.

Harbinger no comparison there. The car dealership was committing fraud with no reserve fund. The university is budget planning with plenty in reserve. $300,ooo by April 2008 is a future projection on a budget over 200 times that amount.

A car dealership, not "The" dealership. Shoulda used another commercially related analogy.

A 1% increase in a

250 student elementary school is 2.5 students ...

city of 75,000 is 750 ...

a province of 4 million is 40,000

a country of 30 million is 300,000 ....

strange how that works .... the secrets of math ...

And the point is? You want a 5% increase? Tell me, waht was the increase since 1988 when it was founded? Surely people knew that percentage increases such as the early years could not be sustained. Surely at least some were smart enough to realize that eventually it would reach a point where it would peak, then possibly drop, adjust, and either stay pretty well in a steady state, drop, or increase because it found additional opportunities with a new push at improving facilities and services.

Now, let us compare that and the general change to post secondary education seats in the province to the net increase in forestry jobs since 1970 in the province.

Which one has been the growth industry - forestry or post secondary education?

;-)

Oh ... now for the tirck question ..... which one has peaked and may not grow further unless some very fundamental changes are made?

Of course they had it all figured out when the population would peak, and level out, etc, Owl thats why all of a sudden they are reducing faculty and staff by 50 people, This indicates good long term planning. Right?

The reason that they used the 1 or 2 percent figure for increased enrolment for September of this year is because they know that most people in the town havent got a clue as to how many full or part time students attend this University, and by using a percentage number it leaves it open to interpretation. By stating catagorically that the increase will be between 36 and 73 students, the cat is out of the bag, and everyone knows that there is no real growth here. The percentage game has been played, (especially in this town) for years, especially by real estate, and others who shy away from actual numbers.


An example would be that housing starts were up by 4% in February over last year.(Hypothetically) If you had 25 in Feb the previous year the 4 % increase would amount to one house. Not as impressive sounding as 4%.

??????? ...

I can say 100, I can say 1% of 10,000.... all the same to me ....

I realize that the number of PhD's in math in this community are likely less than the fingers tow hands, but not needed for that calculation. 1% is 1%.

Impressive??????

Maybe not to you, but those who know what the base number is and can calculate the percentage they can figure out themselves whether it is impressive.

Sort of like saying I made $50,000 on my investments last year.

Sounds great for those who earn less than that ever year. They want to know where they can stick their $20,000 RRSP to get similar returns on their investment.

Then you tell them your rate of return was 5% on a $1 million dollar investment fund. They’ll get $1,000. So they tell you they got $1,500 on a guaranteed fund and you re-arrange your portfolio that you get $75,000 next year.

Those numbers are meaningless. So is a percentage. You need both in order to deal with interpreting change. However, if only one number is given, I would go with the percent. When someone tells me they get 15% return on investment on average for the past 10 years, I can compare it to mine. Actual dollars are meaningless unless I know what the investment is. Even then I need to convert that to percentage in order to compare it to my rate of return.

It seems to me you do not deal with numbers very much to compare various things.

A convenient sidestep of the question I posted.

Palopu ... do you have any idea of the amount of space that is required in a post secondary institution per student? How that space need changes from a college to university and from an undergrad university to a research university and from a non-med to a medical university?

The construction that has occurred since the original buildings were built is catch-up more than preparation for any anticipated increase. Also, small universities with specialized space will require more space per student than larger universities where space can be utilized at a higher rate.

The same goes with programs. One cannot predict with a great deal of accuracy which programs will excel and become popular and which will not. The smaller the University, the more difficult that becomes. And the profile will change with time - the profile of faculty expertise in 1990 will be different than the profile of faculty expertise required for 2010 and again for 2030. Even contracts under which Faculty work change over time.

As I said, is the forest industry any different? Do you hit sawmills for lousy planning because they have been downsizing? Do you hit them because they did not plan for the MPB? The downturn in housing in the USA? The problems with NAFTA and the softwood lumber agreement? The distance to haul? The increase in slopes which have to be logged in the interior plateau? They planned for some of those, I know. Do you know which ones? Do you know what the planning thresholds were for those?

I suggest you do not have the faintest clue. You are just spouting off and shooting from the hip and think everyone on here is gullible.

So, a new question for you. How does the space at UNBC compare to similar sized Universities in Canada? Is UNBC frivolous? Is UNBC an operation which is not applying best practices fiduciary due diligence?

"Of course they had it all figured out when the population would peak, and level out, etc, Owl thats why all of a sudden they are reducing faculty and staff by 50 people, This indicates good long term planning. Right?"

As best as they could, right!!!! They hired too many staff on purpose is the alternate to that obviously.

Remember, they have different population changes they need to put into the mix.

1. The population change based on demographics is the simplest and most accurate of all I suspect. It is also the one completely out of their control.

2. The population change due to total population in a region is the other. Put your thinking cap on here. Think long and hard. This is a really tough question. What would they have used as the source for this information? If you said BC and possibly even Canada Census you go to the head of the class. And what happened to those? One was up, based on seeing which direction the wind was blowing, the other was down by using actual counts to the best ability without implanting a chip into everyone’s neck.

Was it the fault of UNBC that they used base data that was faulty? Maybe they even used the mayor’s palm reading method. In that case, they deserve a slap on the wrist. 

3. Change in the image of the community UNBC finds itself in. Nothing much the University has real control over, although they can lobby for change.

Then comes the change they start having some control over.

4. Additional students through fine tuning programs they emphasize – that means dropping some and adding others – loosing students in the short term for gaining students in the long term based on environmental scans of trends.

5. Change in registration through reputation of programs and getting the word out about that.

6. Change in registration due to improved facilities at the university.

And there might be a few I missed.

You put all that in the bag and make some best guess estimates and put programs and projects in place in an effort to cause those you have some control over to happen. In doing that, you do worst case, best case and medium projections and decide very carefully which to highlight to the public since, by putting the worst case scenario out there, it become self defeating.

Still interested in talking about how chitty the UNBC is at planning? You want the job?

Owl If I had the job all these students would be going to UBC, Simon Fraser, Uvic, and maybe Kelowna.

All your arguments, assumptions, etc; are based on the premise that this is a viable University, and that it should have been built, and is great for the City etc; etc; etc; When in fact it is over staffed, extremely expensive, to run and at best graduates 500 per year, which using **simple mathematics would be approx 125 students per year to attend the Universitys mentioned above, with the rest who are only taking part time courses going to the College. People in outlying Campuses could continue their education through UBC.

You seem to think that its ok for people to come to this University from Vancouver, Southern BC, Northern BC etc; however for some reason you think that people in Prince George shouldnt have to go to Vancouver for their University education. I disagree, if they want it bad enough they will go.

Everybody in this town with a University Degree up until this University was built got there degrees somewhere else. Mostly from the Lower Mainland. Guess what? It worked out just fine.

I say again it would be interesting to know how many people from North Central BC actually attend the Universities in the lower mainland because of the real or perceived prestige of getting a degree from say UBC as opposed to UNBC. I suspect quite a few.

So all this mumbo jumbo in regards to registration, programs, courses, etc; is meaningless. If we closed the University to-morrow, all those interested students would be registered somewhere else this fall, and they would be more than welcome.

Looking at the demographics of the North Central Interior, the populaton forcasts for the next 10/20 years. The decrease in graduations from High School, and the continuing high drop out rates, the continuing depressed business opportunities, and the booming conditions in other areas of the Province, and Alberta, I cannot see how this University can survive., and we all know that it is in trouble.

All the mumbo jumbo in the world cant help it, unless somehow they can get their enrolment numbers up and I cant see this happening. Even the part timers will run out pretty soon. Some of the student apartments are already vacant.

There is no doubt in my mind that we will continue to pour money into this *black hole* on the hill, and continue to put out the hype on how great it is etc;, however at the end of the day its nothing more than an over expensive University that was built for political reasons, rather than for actual need, and unless something exceptional happens in the very near future it has peaked, and is now in a decline.

I just wonder at what point in the decline will someone admit that this is a failed project, or will we ride it out to the bitter end. If we were in Russia, or some other Communist country we could force people to attend, however this being Canada we cant.

Palopu your post makes no sense. I disagree with the entire post.

Since owl has decided to be the teacher and learn idiots like me what 1 percent is and other smarts stuff.
Kin ya all tell me what "fingers tow hands" is ???
Is dat like when my pals chevy brakes down, and i gots ta tow him with my ford?
Or my ole lady wants to stay home, so i gots ta tow her kickin and screemin to dat der wet t shirt contest to shake her stuff and make me sum beer money?


Hope my point got across?
Its hard to read, that basically the rest of us are idiots, and you are hear to teach us....to then butcher the English language.
Thanks for your time.
Sincerely, A Stupid Redneck

Chandermando> It makes sense to those who were opposed to building the University in the first place. For those who were in favour of course it would be confusing.

Im basically finished with this subject now, and will wait to see if enrolment increases or decreases in the next 5 years. If it increases significantly and operating costs are reduced etc; etc; then you and Owl win. If enrolments decrease to say 3000 students of less then I win because 3000 students are an insufficient number for a University and at that time I suspect that there will be some kind of merger with the College.

Have a nice day.