Panel data provided by Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter.

Thoughts on the next Federal Election

By Jack deWit

by Jack deWit

If our Prime Minister keeps his word we should be into a federal election campaign by February of next year. Mr. Martin insists he will call an election within 30 days of the release of the Gomery Inquiry Report. 

Will the Gomery Report findings have a huge impact on swaying the public vote? It was suggested the report’s findings would have a significant influence how Canadians will vote. However, one important change on the global scene may change our reasons for voting as we would have done 6-8 months ago. Yes;the price of oil will have a direct effect on the outcome of the next election.

A report called “The Fairness in Confederation Fiscal Imbalance: Driving Ontario to ‘Have Not’ Status”, was recently released by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce. So why should this report have an effect on how Canadians will vote?
 
The report states that because of the world price of crude oil Ontario’s economic status in Confederation is slipping rapidly. Once the hub of economic activity, Ontario will be one of the poorest provinces within five years if the rate of decline continues. Ontario has a debt of $132.8 billion and the gap in tax contributions and transfer payments has increased substantially ($23 billion). 

This growing gap will cause the Ontario government to pressure the feds for a much higher return in those equalization payments. If the Liberals wish to achieve the normal share of the popular vote in Ontario they will have to respond by handing that province more cash. 

The burden will, of course, fall on the west and mainly on Albertan taxpayers who are enjoying the benefits of profits generated in the fossil fuel industry. This added tax burden would alienate the western provinces even more. As reported in the Western Standard, a commissioned survey concluded that 35.6 % of citizens in the three western provinces now believe pulling out of confederation as a viable option. The highest percentage is in Alberta at 42% in considering independence. 

So what are the possible results of the next federal election? 

I offer a few of my opinions. 

1. Because the election will be held in February, it leaves little time to organize a worthy independence movement. Thus, immediate separation will have to wait. 

2. Ontario gets it’s equalization payments increased and the voters in that province will continue to support the Liberals. The result being that the rest of the nation will pay the price to buy Ontario and a federal Liberal government. 

3. Mr. Martin can lower the taxes on fuels and hope Canadians across the nation will support him. 

4. The feds could place an export tax on our energy resources to help reduce our cost of oil. This would also assist the softwood lumber producers in their fight with the USA. 

5. The Conservative Party makes a miraculous recovery and will form a minority government. This still will not please western voters or Quebec. 

6. The NDP or Green Party could make enough inroads as to substantially influence the decrease of the number of votes going to the major two parties. Perhaps resulting in a NDP or Green Party minority government? 

7. Our Prime Minister does nothing and the dismal economic outlook could convince voters to stay home. After all, who wants to go out vote on a cold February day to cast a ballot? In this scenario, anything would be possible.


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