Clear Full Forecast

A Virus in Forestry Manufacturing

By Peter Ewart

Friday, June 01, 2007 03:50 AM

      

It is strange what gets priority for government and big media.  On CTV national news the other night, the lead story was about some American citizen with a drug resistant case of tuberculosis who had flown on a plane that touched down in Canada briefly.  Possibly several hundred people were exposed, or so the story alleged.  But later in the newscast it comes out that the likelihood of anyone being infected was low, and there really wasn’t a lot in the story to justify the attention it got.  Nonetheless, it was the lead item in the national news.

On the other hand, there is another virus that has been rapidly spreading over the last five years and that has been much more devastating to individuals and communities.  But it hasn’t got the attention it should from the provincial and federal governments, as well as big media.  And this is the virus that is destroying manufacturing capacity, jobs and communities throughout the country.

Over the last five years, the manufacturing sector in Canada has lost 250,000 jobs in forestry, auto, food processing, and other industries, with 52,000 jobs lost since January.  Foreclosure of homes, cuts in wages, marriage breakups and other social problems, as well as a slash in community services and infrastructure.  There are literally hundreds of thousands of stories of personal tragedy behind these figures.

The forestry sector in Canada has been especially hard hit.  Mills are being knocked down like ten pins in Northern Ontario, Quebec and elsewhere.  And now it is BC’s turn.  Forestry towns in the province like Port Alberni, Terrace and others, are already suffering the effects.  In our region, we are seeing just the beginning with the indefinite closure of Canfor’s Mackenzie operations, the bankruptcy of Gateway Forest Products, and a number of temporary shutdowns.  

There are those in government who say that the current challenges to the forest industry are part of the “cyclical nature” of the industry.  For the last several years, instead of a sense of urgency and bold plans to address the crisis that is decimating our manufacturing workforce, they have put forward some stop-gap measures, and a kind of mindless boosterism that all will be “well” in the end. 

It is true that the a resource-based industry like forestry is given to ups and downs, and sometimes dramatic swings.  But it is a mistake to look at the current crisis simply in that light.  To do so, is to overlook the extent and magnitude of the gathering problem for our region.  Indeed, forest industry analysts, like Craig Campbell of PricewaterhouseCoopers, are predicting a “transformation of historic proportions … just over the horizon” for the provincial forest industry.  He notes that “the outlook is very bleak for the Interior sawmilling industry … dozens of sawmills are going to close”  (Vancouver Sun, May 11).

A number of factors are feeding this crisis, including the pine beetle devastation of millions of hectares of forest and the difficulty in processing the dead trees, the plummeting housing market in the U.S., the rise of the Canadian dollar vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, the nosedive in lumber prices, competition from other parts of the world, the lack of diversification in the BC Forest industry, and the simple fact that there is a glut of product in the market. 

Still another is the rapid increase of concentration and monopolization in the sector, a trend which various politicians and pundits in big media are acting as cheerleaders for.  The results are fewer and bigger mills, and a slashed workforce.  It also means that if one of these big companies gets into trouble, besides taking down an entire community, it could also take down an entire region as did Skeena Cellulose in Terrace / Prince Rupert.

Bioenergy is being touted as a saviour for the forest industry, and it does show some promise.  But we must be realistic.  How many jobs will burning beetle wood or manufacturing pellets for the European market provide?

We are facing the destruction of a substantial part of our region’s economic and social fabric, and the possible extinction of some communities.  But you wouldn’t know it from our government representatives who remain transfixed with projects such as the 2010 Olympics extravaganza and the construction of the Vancouver Convention Centre (the building of which, incidentally, will cost hundreds of millions more than the entire 5 year budget allocated for the pine beetle problem that is ravaging the Interior of the province).

What will it take to turn this situation around?  Seven or eight years ago, the people of Prince George and region came together in a massive rally to demand that the previous provincial government make the health crisis in our region a priority.

Today, we need to shake the ground in an even bigger way if we are to save our forestry manufacturing industry and our communities.  The one thing we do have is people power.  We should use it.

  


Previous Story - Next Story



Return to Home
NetBistro

Comments

Same olde, same olde.

There has been people power for every downturn in industry. Some have been found to be cyclical and there is a momentary recovery. In other cases, entire industries shrink down to a mere vestige of itself or get lost entirely, or morph into something associated. We no longer make metal breast plates for personal protection, but Kevlar jackets are used by some, agriculture is a mere vestige of what it was a hundred years ago and a thousand years ago. Fisheries, automobile industry in Detroit and other parts of the world, leather industry in Argentina, fur industry, etc. etc. Even forestry itself is virtually a vestige of itself as it was 30 to 40 years ago in this area. The numbers employed per cubic metre of fibre has considerably dropped.

So, we have people power. There was a local meeting. Other meetings continue � OBAC, etc. What is happening? Is it working? If so, when will the general public get to see something to reassure them that life will go on?

As the article states, all the drop has happened while there is actually increased activity in the woodlands. The decreased availability to fibre is yet to hit us. And it does not mean that we will have less product demand. Product demand is not dependent on bugs in the woods unless it is bugs in someone else�s woods and the demand is simply global demand for a local product due to us having it available while someone else does not.
The current forestry issues in this province are NOT all part of a cyclic pattern this time around.
This is a new ball game.
The industry is changing, and there have been other issues here in B.C. to compound that.
Like dead trees just for one.
We are also dealing with a provincial government that fails to address many of the issues arising.
And they are the same people we elected to help provide leadership and long term solutions to the difficult times ahead.
Yes,many of the smaller,older,out of the way mills will in fact fade away due to changing times and methods.
They can no longer compete with the technology or the productivity of newer mills.
And oddly enough,the industry has more timber than ever.
Too much at times.
But that does NOT change the fact that our economy in B.C.is based on forestry in general, and to think that it will all sort itself out down the road and we will become something else,is just plain dangerous.
Yes, we SHOULD have seen this coming perhaps,and many in fact did.
The government DID see it coming.
If they did not,then they should NOT be government.
With all the knowledge and research resources available to them,how could they not have seen this coming?
Unfortunately keeping your mouth shut and hoping no one will notice won't get it done.
And gross expenditures like we are seeing by the provincial government on select areas of the lower mainland over the next few years are much like Nero fiddling while Rome burns.
The bread and butter in this province is "beyond Hope", and the governments building of monuments to themselves is short sighted and wrong.
Much of those wasted dollars came from the more northern parts of this province.
So what will they build when those dollars are gone along with the jobs that earned them?
(I wonder if there will still be 29 percent raises plus gold plated pensions?)
I'm currently in vancouver and despite the forcasted problems in the central interior with forestry, no one down here seems to even know or care about it......all they think about is the olympics coming..and how much they can buy and sell real estate for.....

\i wonder what will happen to the vancouver real estate bubble after the olympics are done?

\any forcasters out there?
oh by the way.....I love PG and live there. Just visiting vncr.
I am frequently in Vancouver and am here as I write this. I work out of PG as a consultant for industry in the entire province. The industry happens to
be the forest industry.

Urban centres, large or small, all over the world are living entities which transform themselves. Puerto Vallarta is no longer a little fishing village. Its existence is dependent on people having enough money to travel to �desirable� places for a vacation. In fact, its original desirability has long been transformed and no longer exists. There are other reasons why it remains desirable.

Vancouver is still a port, put waterfront that was a shipbuilding and fishing and transportation waterfront has transformed to a tourism industry waterfront with convention facilities and cruise ship berths. Waterfront has become a premium and desirable place for recreation for the masses as well as living for the rich.

There was virtually no wine industry in BC 40 years ago. In fact, hardly anyone know about it 30 years and even 20 years ago. Now, the industry (and it is an industry) has actually created itself and is in the midst of a transformation from a working area to having a tourist secondary association with everyone trying to outdo themselves with tasting rooms, restaurants and wildlife and archaeological interpretive centers.

Things change. It is time we come to the realization that we are part of that. We can either be leaders of that change. Visionaries. Or we can keep talking about the good olde days and die off like smaller single industry ghost towns. It is our choice.

Oh, if people think that the Olympics are what made Vancouver, is making Vancouver and will continue to make Vancouver, you really do not understand world industry and economics. Vancouver has been re-inventing itself faster than many other major cities in the world. It is vibrant. It has been weaning itself off forestry. Those who think otherwise do not understand the economics of the lower mainland.

Come down here, get connected, and bring the appropriate business connections to PG and reach out to other communities who need to rethink their reason for continuing as an urban entity in the centre of the province.

PS. While there may be a downturn shortly after the Olympics, the industry in the GVRD will remain at a comparatively high level in relation to pre-Olympics and will continue to grow.

Is that good or bad? That is another matter all together.
Quite correct Imorg.....they really don't have clue down there!
They look around their secure little world of the lower mainland and tend to think that it is all there is, and everyone's life is the same as theirs.
(actually,I think our life up here is much better)
And that is exactly the problem.
Our provincial government also thinks the same way.
I have company from West Vancouver arriving next month specifically because they want to see what is happening for themselves.
He works for a major overseas shipping company and has picked up on the fact that something isn't quite right.
They have no concept of the Pine Beetle issue and have seen it only in a few pictures.
All of us who live north of Hope know that they can't even begin to imagine.
More people from the coast need to see it to understand.
(hey,I wonder if I should start a tour business?)
Are they ever in for a suprise.
And owl,I see your point, and you are correct,but in order to diversify and deal with change,we have to have something to utilize for a product.
While I am sure their are lots of ideas and options,nothing will replace what the forest industry has done for B.C.
It will not disappear altogether, but the change may be enough to bring a lot of hardship to the province in general.
After a recent trip to Vancouver (early this week) I'm starting to wonder how much a massive downturn in the forestry industry will really effect the lower mainland.

I noticed that there are a lot of world wide major corporations, (like Electronic Arts for example) that rely on international money from the world wide market (or on Canadian coin from other provinces) to make their profit rather than money from the relatively small Northern BC population.

Also, there's such a massive population difference between the lower mainland and Northern BC. I have to wonder how much Northern BC dollars actually flows to the lower mainland?
Vancouver has in fact become very much an international city fueled by international money.
No question about that.
However,provincial revenues come from the entire province as a whole,with forestry making up a very large percentage of that same revenue.
The shipping company I worked for up until I retired was based out of Norway.
They were a very progressive company and were very concerned about the overall management of B.C.as a whole.
It made them nervous,mainly because of the lack of what they saw as long term infrastructure.
And infrastructure is the one thing that will make or break us.
Keep in mind,this was a country who had learned from their own mistakes in the past, and they made some big ones.
Of course,in all fairness,a large whack of oil and gas revenue goes a long way to straighten a country out,so maybe they were just being negative!
The point is,Vancouver and the lower mainland cannot carry the rest of the province.
I can't help but think that this is why we need to pay attention to the whole picture and not just one specific area.
(like the lower mainland)
If we wait too long to do that,we just might end up in trouble.


The facts as I see them, is this is a problem that has been greatly enhanced by the BC liberal government policy to separate logging tenure from local milling.

It will devastate small communities across Northern BC and as the professor at UBC says, 'maybe some communities need to disappear for the sake of the market'. I disagree that some communities need to disappear for the sake of the market, but I am at odds with the BC provincial government.

IMO the Americans were right and we need a 100% open log market with restrictions that require local milling of the fibre resource. We need access to fibre for companies that are willing to do business in our communities in a competitive manor that is not subsidized by forest tenures.

The shut down of McBride for the sale of their forest tenure is a real sign of the sickness and corporate welfare policy of our current government at the expense of small communities.

We do not need multinationals that control all the resource tenures with a token 20% on the open market, and their ability to ship raw logs to far off places for processing. This is the BC liberal policy and it is the primary source of our eventual decimation of Northern BC as a viable place to work and live.

IMO the pine beetle was used as a cynical weapon against Northern BC and our forest industry by the multinational forest companies and the politicians they fund in a way no different than GW Bush used 9/11 as a cynical weapon to fight a war of aggression in Iraq.

The pine beetle does not affect the spruce trees, or the fir trees, or all the other resources that make up our forests. We should not allow the pine beetle to be used to shut down whole towns in Northern BC for the benefit of multinational hedge fund run forest companies with internal profit motives for off-shore investors.

People power is all we have to fight back with and people power should be to put a stop the BC liberal government policies that are going to destroy this region through raw log shipments to far away processing plants.
I work in vanderhoof and we are ramping up production. Start the shift earlier, work later and through breaks. Add a weekend super shift with a third more production?

We are told the key is to lower per unit production costs and spread fixed costs over more and more production. The yard is full of dressed lumber, the markets are down, costs are up (fuel), the dollar is high - more production is the answer.

We have taken five weeks down in 2007 and are expecting a lot more. People are starting to bail.
Sounds like they will load it up and shut it down.
Happening everywhere.
You would have to wonder why with way lumber prices are going and how badly the market is being flooded.
Guess they will have dressed lumber to sell and no wages to pay?
A couple of good articles in the Westcoaster from Port Alberni in regards to the layoffs there.
It's going to get a lot worse too!
www.westcoaster.ca
a buddy of mine drives a cab in town. He picked up the big wig from ottawa who was in town @ a month or so ago.....apparently the guy told him that the lumber industry in pg was headed down the tubes and there was no light at the end of the tunnel, no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. He also apparently said that the beetle wood has a shorter viable use life span than what was originally thought to be, and that the lumber giants will no longer spend the money to harvest it because of that reason....To top that off, he said the beetles were also attacking second growth pine trees and were showing signs that they were adapting to chewing on spruce trees.....
So I guess if the forestry industry has been the economic driver of the prince george economy and it picked up due to the harvesting needs of the pine beetle kill, it is due to collapse because of the above mentioned reasons......
\that is what ottawa and the head honchos of the big lumber giants think...according to the guru who came to \pg.
Guess where the Ottawa dude got that from. All that information has been in the local news and is certainly the talk around the table by those who are part of the forst industry.

BUT...... NO ONE ELSE IS LISTENING!!!!!

BTW .... this is for pine only, which I believe is around 40% of the feedstock. So, it is not completely gone and the beetle killed fibre is useable for some things, such as bionergy products. There will, however, be different economies of scale to contend with. Less sawn lumber means less garbage - sawdust, chips, etc. Thus the users of such garbage will likely see a rised in cost which may result in a feedstock shift.
I agree with those that say the number of forest industry jobs in Prince George is going to decline substantially in the very near future, and that the local economy is going to take a major hit as a result of this.

What puzzle me though, is why is there so much business and residential construction going on in Prince George right now? Absolutely everywhere you go in this town, someone is building something. With the major challenges going on in the forest industry right now, you would think people would be more cautious spending their money.
It does make one wonder charles!
About the only explanation I can find is just as owl says....NO ONE IS LISTENING!
I guess that's why the builders are throwing up their homes as fast as they can: sell em high, make their money, then bail to the okanagan or alta when things go sour again.

Seems the builders know people aren't listening until its too late. But you can't blame them for making a living off supply and demand.

\new home are going fast...however I've seen a glut of older homes in college hts (supposedly the place to be) go on and remain on the market for quite some time....
Saskatchewan real estate booming .. here is the reason ....
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070602/housing_west_070602/20070602?hub=Canada

http://www.colliersmn.com/prod/cclod.nsf/city/6A3B5836DFE2CFC0852572C6005E30D8

So why live in a cold winter place and humid summer place like Regina when one can live in a warmer winter place and drier summer place like Prince George?

It could have something to do with Regina and Saskatoon both having all the amenities of a city, while PG is still struggling with that.