The next federal election will likely be in May or June of next year depending upon what the Bloc Quebecois wants to do. The national windbag, NDP leader Jack Layton, thinks he has the balance of power which, if nothing else, shows he can’t count either.

When the next fight gets under way there will be a lot of bleating that “this time BC will actually count” which is silly because it does have 36 seats and unless there is a sweep one way or another they will count. They will especially count in a close election such as in 2006. The battleground will, however, be in Quebec and Ontario and there (pin this on the fridge for future reference) Dion will mop the floor with Harper.

There is this myth abroad that Quebeckers hate Stephane Dion. That should read “separatists” hate Dion. Everyone else will heavily support the Liberals in large part because they won’t support either the Tories or the NDP. Apart from the usual separatist talk, Quebec has two buttons to push – the environment and Afghanistan. Harper is about as much an environmentalist as Alcan or Union Carbide and supports expanding Canadian involvement in Afghanistan. Dion is a former Environment Minister and seems sincere on the subject. What Mr. Layton says on the subject is irrelevant.

It’s on Afghanistan that Mr. Dion has stick-handled with surprising and typical Liberal finesse. It reminds this old codger of the wartime Liberals stance under Mackenzie King saying “conscription if necessary but not necessarily conscription. Here is what Mr. Dion has written on Afghanistan

“I have always been a strong supporter of Canada’s mission in Afghanistan and Kandahar, and of those who have gone there to fulfill it -- Canada’s Armed Forces. And yet, I had to vote against Stephen Harper’s motion to extend the mission. I had to do it to defend Parliament, an institution that belongs to the Canadian people.

Extending such a dangerous mission by two years is a serious decision, one that must not be taken lightly.

This decision belongs to the executive branch of government. Government must be accountable for it. If Mr. Harper wishes to share this decision-making power and this responsibility with the House of Commons, then he must respect the House. This is a debating body which cannot be asked to render a hasty, ill-informed decision on such a serious matter, when nothing justified such haste…”

Now ain’t that neat-o?

It may not be very forthright but it’s better than what Harper has to say and Quebeckers will buy it for want of anything better.

Now what about Ontario?

Bay Street s angry with Harper over the Income Trust fiasco but Bay Street doesn’t elect governments any more. Still, that doesn’t hurt the Grits. Ontario, inside and outside the 416 exchange, will look and see what Quebec is doing because Ontario sees itself as the linchpin of Confederation with a duty to keep Quebec happy. They will give about 70+ seats to the Liberals who will take enough in other parts of Canada to make Stephane Dion the next Prime Minister of Canada. 

I mean, when have I ever been wrong?

Don’t answer that question ….