Clear Full Forecast

Provincial Budget Options Limited

By 250 News

Friday, December 07, 2007 03:18 PM

After meeting with independant  financial advisors,  the Provincial Minister of Finance, Carole Taylor,  says the economic  growth forecasts have been lowered.

"British Columbia's economy will continue to outperform the Canadian average and grow at a healthy rate," said Taylor. "But, clearly, there are challenges that are lowering the economic growth forecast  for B.C."

The independent Economic Forecast Council has lowered their 2007 to 2012 average economic growth forecasts for British Columbia. The council projects B.C.'s real gross domestic product at 3.1 per cent this year, down from their previous forecast of 3.4 per cent. For 2008, economic growth is expected to average 2.9 per cent, down from 3.3 per cent in their previous survey. Over the medium term, growth is forecast at 2.9 per cent for 2009, and 2.8 per cent for years 2010-2012.

The province  is feeling the  pressure of the  decline in exports,  the rising dollar, and  declining  prices for lumber and natural gas.

"The economic outlook has consequences for our budget decisions," said Taylor. "Most importantly, it confirms why it is so important to be prudent. Because we have been cautious with our forecasts, we will be able to sustain the programs and services British Columbians rely on. But a lower economic forecast will impact our revenue growth, which may limit our budget choices."

Given the significant uncertainty with respect to the U.S. economy and Canadian dollar, the Economic Forecast Council members will have an opportunity to update their forecasts in early January.

The provincial budget will be delivered on February 19th.


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Comments

What? The Olympics aren't enough to overcome the "real" economy? Amazing.
It actually IS amazing ain't it?...considering all the retoric we have heard!
And as Taylor says,"it confirms why it is so important to be prudent"...
In other words,..You AIN'T getting any money for ANYTHING so DON'T ASK!!!
ALL exports to the USA are more expensive with a rising C$. Lumber is not the only one.

ALL tourists from the USA will have to spend more money when they come to Canada, thus will not stay as long or will not come in the first place.

ALL filming will suffer in the same way.

By the same token, what we buy will change. We will buy more in the USA, we will spend more time in the USA, thus goods and services for sale here will gt a double whammy.

It all has to do with how poorly the USA is doing an that the world has finally said enough is enough already.

And we were not ready for it.
The Canadian dollar today is at 99.43 cents US and has been low for quite a few days.

The 2010 Winter Olympics is an obligation that B.C. applied for and now we must go through with it, to the best of our ability, together, all of us!

No amount of sarcasm and constant finger pointing, bellyaching and bleating is going to change that fact!

Enough of the complaining already!

Its about time someone said something positive diplomat. You're right! People have to quit whining and step up and try to do something to get some benefit from the olympics. It seems everyone has a beef but can't see any good or any possibilities that can be had.
Looks like it's time to vote in the NDP to turn the economy around.
"Looks like it's time to vote in the NDP to turn the economy around." Heehee, good one!

It's sure is funny how the delta has all the MLA's, but when northern BC sneezes they all get a cold. The money supply dries up real fast. Look who really runs the place now!

How do other countries cope with high currency relative to the US, compared to us? Maybe we should trade with Zimbabwe. Their currency must be coming out of the ground by now in China as it has gone that low.
It appears YDPC does not quite understand what effect a rising dollar has on the entire economy of the country.
BTW .... it is not only this country. Any country that trades with the USA has that problem other than those whose currencies are more or less tied to it.

That would include China as well as Japan. The Yen has gone down considerably against the C$ and Euro, although it has risen somewhat against the US$.

The recent edition of the German equivalent of Time magazine has a cover story of the impact of the fall of the US$ on the European economy. Canada is not in this alone but affects us more since the USA is our major trading partner .....

reminds me of something about all our eggs in one basket ......
owl .."It appears YDPC does not quite understand what effect a rising dollar has on the entire economy of the country."

Paint me a picture, oh humble one.
Diplomat sez "The 2010 Winter Olympics is an obligation that B.C. applied for and now we must go through with it, to the best of our ability, together, all of us!

No amount of sarcasm and constant finger pointing, bellyaching and bleating is going to change that fact!

Enough of the complaining already!"

Just make sure you don't get sick and have to wait in a long line at PGRH for medical because those Olympics have sucked up much needed health care dollars.
And don't complain when Gordo has enough private dams built so that BC Hydro can become as worthless as the gutted BCR, and he sells that off to his buddies too...
I will complain every time Carole Taylor or whoever takes her job, cuts services to the sick, the elderly, the school kids, the families with lower incomes... You know the ones.
I haven't begun to complain yet. wait till the bill comes in for this one! Clarks Fast Ferries will be small fish compared to the one that Gordo's going to land.
Perhaps Owl could explain to us why, in the grand old days of Empire, India was said to be the "jewel in the Crown". Yet Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Malaya, and Britain's other worldwide imperial possessions provided far more in 'resources' to her than India ever did.

Could it possibly have something to do with, perhaps, India being a massive captive 'dumping ground' for British manufactures that COULDN'T be 'SOLD' anywhere else in the quantities they were being 'mass produced'in for enough "money" to cover the ongoing costs of their manufacture?

That if British manufacturers tried to sell all they were producing 'at home' the domestic market would be so satiated so quickly that 'production' would have to stop?

And if 'production' stopped the distribution of 'incomes' from that production would also stop, and most things, no matter how 'cheaply' they could be made for 'financially', COULDN'T be sold? But how then, did India PAY for what she was continually receiving? Or did she?

Perhaps he might elaborate why it's often 'cheaper' to buy BC lumber ~ the best of BC lumber ~ at some foreign builing supply than it can be had for right here in BC where it's produced? (And it's far from the 'best' that generally can be had here at any of our building supplies.)

Or why, when Britain was making Land Rovers you could get a whole range of options and body stlyles if you lived abroad and the vehicle was "for export" to your country. But if you lived in Britain where they were made none of those could be had there. You got the 'basic' model, no options, and that was it.

Could it be that every industrial country has to "import" some other country's 'credit' to live?

Even the United States, back when it was virtually completely 'self-sufficient' within its own borders and territories, (even in 'oil', HAD to 'export' to gain enough external 'credit', (not 'goods', it didn't need them)to live. Why should this be so?

Well let me see here, did the Provincial Liberal governemnt not say they turned the economy around in B.C. and it was all their doing? Hmmmm.... Who are they going to blame the fall out on? The NDP?
votemike, I am talking about the endless griping about the Winter Olympics! Vote in Carol James and there are two things she will not do IF elected: a) undo the BCR deal - she already said so b) cancel the Winter Olympics - she can't, as much as she would like to!

All to the contrary IF elected she would stand in the international spotlight and with a great big smile take credit for the whole thing, flanked by a grinning bevy of NDP MLAs!!!

Learn to live with both of these realities, get with it, positively! Or keep bleating like a sheep, if you wish!

On every occasion I waited longer for emergency room assistance during the ten years of the NDP rule then I did on two occasions now! As you perhaps remember the NDP years were the pits, depressing and a continuous downward spiral from number one to dead last province!

votemike:"Clarks Fast Ferries will be small fish compared to the one that Gordo's going to land."

Be careful what you hope and wish for and what you are predicting...

By the way:

The expression *Gordo* is a stupid one because it means *the fat one*! It is ill placed and non-sense in this case.


I for one will never agree with the Olympics, and what "Gordo' and his gang of carpetbaggers have done in this province.
Everything is about money,except all that money goes to projects on the lower mainland.(and 28% wage increases for) politicians)
And far too many of those projects are Olympic related.
They are big on building monuments to themselves.
What we get here in the north is merely a pitance.
And when things start to tank,what do they do?
They don't even get their over paid asses up here and talk to people and that includes Campbell.
The last damn thing Campbell wants to see is a provincial economy that is going down in a ball of flames at a time when he and his boys are dumping millions and millions into the Olympics in cost overruns.
"Gordo" and his boys are not going to look very good.
The Convention Center fiasco itself should cost Campbell his job,just like the fast ferries did in Clark.
And he can take Taylor with him.
The extra dough they are pounding into the Convention Center ($450 million so far in overruns)should have been going to our schools and our health system.
And even now, I don't think we are getting the true figures on what these Olympic projects are actually costing us.
Wait til its over.
I don't believe for one second that these Olympics will break even.
All one has to do is check the fugures on other past Olympic projects in other countries to see that.
But, my tax dollars will get to go toward the bail-out even though I never even got to vote on the damn Olympics.
Only the Vancouver did,because they knew damn well that north would not support it.
But then,I guess none of it will really matters because at the rate we are going here in the north,very few of us will be going to the Olympics anyway.
(the people of B.C. are not the target
audience any way)
I voted for Gordon Campbell once and I will not support him again.
I am not sure WHO I will vote for,that IS a problem,but it won't be for the Liberals as long as he is the party leader!
They have NOT turned the economy around in B.C.
They just came up with a better line of bulls**t!
Wonderful post, Andy, you're telling it as it is.
I stated many times here that I wasn't in favour of the Winter Olympics either, because the province was just getting back on its feet again after a ten year slide into oblivion.

You say that you didn't get to vote on the Olympics and neither did I. But I didn't get to vote on the Fast Ferries either and they are a totally useless pile of junk. At least the convention center will be a money making venue once it is open for business. Nobody wants to see any overrun if it can be avoided.

But, I say it again: Once the Winter Olympics had been awarded to B.C. - and Canada, by the way (!) - there was and is no way of backing out and thereby reneging on the commitment which is being relied on to be fulfilled by the International Olympics Organization.

Ask C. James in the legislature whether or not she is publicly and seriously recommending an immediate cancellation of all construction and taking responsibility for all the lawsuits that would follow and the international black eye B.C. would suffer!

Before "Gordo' and his gang of carpetbaggers" (your words) we had a *gang of carpetbaggers* of a different and incompetent stripe. Looks like us voters are getting one *gang* after the other and perhaps we are getting exactly what we deserve because we keep electing them over and over.

I remember that we have something called *Recall* but if things are indeed as bad as you are saying - why don't a bunch of ticked off serious people start some recall campaigns?

Democracy in action!
I do hear what you are saying Diplomat!
There was no way we are getting out of the Olympic business, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't hold their feet to the fire for it!
The actual cost of the Olympics themselves is separate from the other money they are spending on everything else to go along with it, and we need to remember that.
And all on the lower mainland.
Funny how they never include the other things when they tell us they are on budget!
And yes,there is such as thing as "recall",but it is set up in such a way that it is useless.
And our political leaders, past and present,know that,they designed it!
When we all start sitting back and letting them run amuck with our tax dollars as they have done,( and that includes the NDP) we will all pay the price,and we will after 2010!
That money should have gone to schools,hospitals,seniors,roads,bridges,(not just the Sea to Sky) and not into politicians pockets in the form of fat raises and pensions at a time when they are spending MILLIONS and MILLIONS of our tax dollars.
We could have had a Cancer Clinic already built and operating in Prince George with only a small portion of what they have pissed away!!!
The Convention Center fiasco itself is an amazing example of spin and retoric done to keep the spotlight off of a major boner!
It WILL blow up in their faces and soon!
Let Campbell tell the guy who just lost his sawmill job after 20 years, that the Olympics are a great thing for B.C.(sorry you can't afford to go)
Let him tell that to the guy who stands on the street corner in a small B.C.town and watches load after load of logs leaving the community on out of town trucks,because the local sawmills are shut down and the local logging trucks sit idle.
He had better duck when he does!
His government may not be able to fix things over night,but they sure as hell aren't doing anything to help either.
This is BAD government and B.C.deserves better!

Andyfreeze :"This is BAD government and B.C.deserves better!"

Well, can't argue much with what you are saying!

Bad government seems to be a chronic disease, just look at Ottawa, Washington (!) and even here at P.G.!

It's enough to give any *normal human being* a mental hernia or two!

Too boot it's not getting any better! Now, if we try the *other gang* again (the only other option) we pretty well know already what we are going to get...

Recall was touted as a real democratic exercise, but then it was intentionally designed to be a toothless wonder, just another scam.

Perhaps we can shame the Feds to spend the billions that are being poured into the sinkhole of Afghanistan (a fifty year project!) instead over here in Canada, on health care, failing infrastructure, crime prevention, on the Canadian homeless and the hundreds of Canadian soup kitchens and Canadian food banks!

And on those Canadians who are about to lose their jobs and need retraining and even relocation in a hurry!

Politicians seem to be strangely out of touch with the realities of the daily effort and plight of the ordinary Canadian working stiff once they get close enough to the political trough that feeds them far too lavishly.

Cheers!
My guess is that many of the residents of Vancouver who voted yes in the referendum about whether or not to bring the 2010 Olympics to Vancouver are probably now wishing they had voted no in this referendum.

The following is from an article in yesterday's Vancouver Province.

"Vancouver residents should brace for a hefty tax hike -- or a hefty cut in services.

And they have the 2010 Games to blame."

Anyone wishing to read the entire article can do so by clicking on the following link.

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html?id=d283761c-db41-4c9c-a692-4b26405919b1

It is also my guess that when these Olympics are finally held in 2010, Vancouver will be participating in the housing price meltdown which started in the United States two years ago. (I recently read an article which said the price of an average home in Vancouver was 729K.) At this point I think most of the residents of Vancouver will be feeling really dumb about supporting the bringing of such an extravagent event to Vanouver.

I think this credit crunch which is currently affecting financial markets will finally bring a long needed "adjustment" to our "borrow and spend" economy.
Yes, there'll be an 'adjustment' all right.
But it won't change our 'borrow and spend' economy to a 'save and spend' one instead.
That would take a far different type of 'adjustment' than the current one-shot write-off of a bunch of unrepayable debts.
NOW you are talking my language Diplomat!!
And I couldn't agree more!
You're right...politicians are completely out of touch with reality!
Maybe they have all stayed too long at the fair?
Time for reality check and a tune-up at the polls!
And Charles is also right...when the cost of housing gets to the point where people can't afford to live,buy a home,or work there anymore,the tipping point has been reached!
Next stop...crash and burn!
Skoal!
The Olympics were a bad idea. Why would you spend your money on chocolate when the cupboards are empty ?

It is a big bash that we cannot afford to host. We should have waited until we had the financial ability to foot the bill.

Now, we will all face new "taxes" to boost the revenue. We will all be tapped into somehow, because that is how it has to be now. Nobody can be left out. We will all contribute one way or the other, because that's where the money comes from, and the money has to come.

Every opportunity to gather revenue will be seized. People in smaller communities will suffer from the "cash suction" and people in Vancouver will live it up.

You didn't think they planned to pay for everything themselves, do you ?

Hopefully, the games will not be blacked out up here, so at least you can sit at the TV and watch your money being pissed away.
The Olympics were so sought after because their construction is thought to be 'stimulative' to any economy that hosts them.

They are, like any other 'capital' project, public or private. It distributes 'money' in the PRESENT that can be applied to pay PAST debt charges. Though it increasingly mortgages the FUTURE, ensuring the whole process has to be continuously and ever increasingly repeated to function.

The reason they spent 'money' on the Olympics 'when the cupboards were bare' was because Gordon Campbell, being a former 'land-pimp', thinks anything that 'raises prices' is the equivalent of 'prosperity'. It's the same thinking behind Germany's re-armament under the Nazis, and, you'll remember, before that really got underway Hitler hosted an Olympic Games, too.

It isn't 'prosperity' for long though. It's pure 'inflation'. And that's what eventually defeated WAC Bennett's government, which spent money on a lot of things that were a lot more worthwhile and beneficial and needed than that 'steroid circus' is ever going to be.

It need not be that way, but our current team of politicians, whatever their "Party", have all got blinders on.
Some of the thoughts on here I just don't seem to understand.

1. BC created 26,000/43,000 jobs last month, mostly full time and has a historic low 4.2% unemployment rate(60% of Canada's jobs with 14% of its population);

2. BC's consumer confidence level is at 121.1 when compared to 100.2 across Canada;

3. BC has accumulated budget surpluses approaching $13 billion over the last four years;

The Olympics are an event akin to Expo 86. Calgary held the Olympics in '88 and the Albertan economy was lacklustre back then.

Leading up to Expo 86, the BC economy was continuing to suffer serious recessionary effects (fall '81 - '86), and only moved in an upward direction in late '86.
1. What were the total number of DOLLARS paid out for all the 'new jobs' that were created vs. the total number of dollars that WOULD HAVE BEEN paid out for all the previously 'existing jobs' which have been displaced by automation or technological advancement and 'outsourcing' in the same period? Or does such statistical information even exist?

2. What is the 'consumer confidence level' in Prince George, or Mackenzie, or Chetwynd, or Burns Lake, or Fort St. James?
Or in the Kootenay's? Or in Nanaimo, or Campbell River?

3. What happened to "tax cuts work"? If 13 billion has been collected from us in taxes, and not spent on us, shouldn't we have that money back? So we can spend, or save, or invest, that money ourselves?

If it's been collected through 'royalties' on products for sale here and abroad, shouldn't we have a rebate in lower prices for the portion of those products sold here?

There is no argument that Expo 86 'stimulated' a moribund economy that was made still more moribund by the ill-conceived 'Austerity' program that pre-ceded it. Where already overpaid Civil Service mandarins at the top were rewarded with still higher salaries for every 'front-line' worker in all Ministries they could get rid of. How much in total did that actually 'save'?

On the Coast alone, the withdrawal of government scaling supervision in the forest industry resulted in untold loss to the Crown as some big companies regarded that cut-back as a 'licence to steal'. And did. Remember "sympathetic administration"? The overcutting and outright waste of good timber that engendered had a large part in spawning the 'Environmental Movement' that's cost this industry millions and millions more long term than were ever made by practices that should have never been allowed in the first place.

"What were the total number of dollars paid out for all the "new" that were created"
Excellent question socredible,, and that is exactly what is missed in all the retoric from our fearless leaders in Lotus Land!
Maybe we are not supposed to ask that?