Visit Tahsis, BC...that will be PG on a different scale, but the impact will be the same.

Sure Prince George is tied to the forest industry, sure that industry is in bad trouble but it will not mean the end of forestry, just a change in the way it has been operating. Workers will be displaced but they will secure opertunities elswhere, probably right in P.G. We are not burnt folks, just slightly over done. We will recover from this forest downturn. I say forest downturn because the rest of the cities economy seems to be doing O.K. I hate negative thinkers and it will serve no purpose cultivating these thoughts. Lift your head up, look around, there is lots going to happen in P.G. The lumber industry isn't dead it is just in a reorganizing mode, be it smaller or not. I predict that in five years we will look back and see that it was only a storm, not a huricane. Keep your spirits up and look for opportunities, there will be many.

And the problem at Tahsis was a 'monopoly' had developed. With ONE firm having exclusive rights to the timber tenure, several of its other, over-built mills elsewhere that were wood hungry, and no requirement to mill logs from the Tahsis area in the Tahsis area.

There were other factors there as well, for sure, but the overall trend to increased concentration of control over access to the resource itself played the largest role in the demise of Tahsis as a lumber manufacturing centre.

When people talk about finding a 'solution' to this problem, it often is mentioned that there would have to be some kind of 'subsidy' offered to keep logging and sawmilling local and able to operate sustainably.

Generally, we think of a 'producer' subsidy, of some nature, and there have been some, (Tackama at Fort Nelson, recently). And it's always (correctly) noted that there is a great danger in this, since the product could then be subject to tariffs, or other trade remediations being imposed on it by the government of the country it's destined for.

But do we ever consider what might happen if there were instead a 'consumer' subsidy, or rather, a 'rebate' paid back to us, all of us, on ALL retail prices?
In our own market, for ALL the products we manufacture in this country?

Such a move would not be difficult to implement, though it would require some 're-thinking' of current concepts we have about 'money', (which are largely erroneous in any case), and it would be completely immune from any existing trade barriers involving 'producers' subsidies.

I was thinking Tumbler Ridge ten years ago.

I always figured if PG ever grew to 125,000 then it would quickly climb to 200,000+ because then it would have the mass density needed to become its own service centre for distribution warehousing among other diversification that would take place.

IMO PG got stuck at (80,000) residents as a ceiling because of a few main reasons.

#1) Our cities sole focus has been on a downtown that is located at the inconveniently located and air-polluted edge of the city and not the centre. Not to mention this is mostly below the 200-year flood plane.

#2) Our tax dollar priorities have been for buying the dream (Art Gallery ect.); and not for enabling the economy with the required infrastructure to attract and retain the economic building blocks required by any city wishing to attract investment (eg an industrial site outside the city air-shed connected with a ring road(solves 1,3,&4)).

#3) Our cities economic development plans all consist of corporate welfare to buy low paying service jobs (with our home tax dollars), and not creating the conditions to grow the economy.

#4) Our city allowed others to consult us (ice jam prime example) into not taking our own initiative as a region to find out how we remove tax barriers (thus economically enabling) for the utilization of the millions of tons of waste fibre piling up in slash burn piles and beehive burners all around us. Why we allow others in the 2010 zone to dictate the taxation priorities and economic development initiatives when it comes to enabling the fibre resource industry makes no sense at all and we have the predicted zero-zilch result as a city that claims to be the capital of the region... IMO. A city doesn't grow in a leadership vacuum filled with wanna-be politicians that are all preoccupied with their corporate big money monopoly friends.

#5) PG has no urban centre for the urban residents, or the special needs residents, that choose to live in places that do have an urban centre. I think our focus on the downtown as the solution killed any momentum PG could have once generated because the challenges were bigger then any of the city planners ever wanted to admit. PG was held ransom as a hostage to the 'downtown-only' crowd and the cities potential was retarded as a result.

Time Will Tell

Socred you have to get off this kick that just because you are not being subsidized then there is a problem.

I agree the corporations are being subsidized.

I disagree that you need to be subsidized with tax dollars, and think rather you shouldn't be taxed on your wage income instead, and then you need to earn your own income.

I also disagree that enabling an emerging industry like the fibre resource industries (co-gen, ethanol, pellet flame) with less taxes is a subsidization when taking the foot off the neck of industrial potential allows the creation of jobs and spin off supply chain economics utilizing previous waste that has environmental benefits. I ask who is subsidizing who... is the environment subsidizing you, are you subsidizing he corporations, or are they all subsiding each other?

The job of politicians and leaders IMO is to apply common sense and craft a policy that enables... preferably through tax freedom... rather than tax reallocation. I think with enough tax freedom anything is once again possible at an economic profit, the problem is we also have important government functions… and so someone has to pay the taxes, and therefore what are the priorities.

I say tax the foreigners, and tax the resources to foreigners (energy post NAFTA), and tax the consumer, but do not tax the people earning a wage or generating wealth through savings and equity investments.

The cup is half full.
Cheers

There is no doubt we are tied to the forest industry.

There is no doubt that we had/have a MPB epidemic which has hit our supply region hard.

There is no doubt that there was an upsurge in harvesting due to the MPB.

There is no doubt that there was an upsurge in lumber manufacturing due to the "flood the market" approach to fight against the countervailing duties.

There is no doubt that the forest industry has done nothing over the years to broaden their market base significantly away from the USA.

There is no doubt that the bubble we just passed gave too many in the community, who surprisingly understood little about this or were not willing to confront reality, the opportunity to tell the rest of the province and country as well as locals that PG is an economic powerhouse.

There is no doubt that the positive thinkers were too complacent.

There is no doubt that few predicted such a rapid climb of the C$ and other major currencies against the US$.

There is no doubt that few predicted the impact of the US housing bubble bursting on the lumber sector in Canada. Yes!!! Canada!!!! BC is not the only one hit.

There is no doubt that there will be a new plateau of forest activity which will be reached by about 2010.

There is no doubt that the determination of that new plateau will include the following factors:

1. Russian forests and the growth of their forestry manufacturing infrastructure.

2. Use of forest fibre for biomass generated solid, liquid and gaseous fuels.

3. Diversification of products from forest fibre.

4. Development of agro-forestry – tree plantations, to overcome short term fibre shortages resulting from the MPB.

5. Development and promotion of local forest expertise as consulting services to the rest of the world.

6. And way out on a limb, but one never knows, such things as development and promotion of local parts and equipment design and manufacturing for forest equipment. (this will be the toughest of all, but we now have better access to reasonable transportation to assembly plants in other parts of the world)

Finally, coupled with this the realization that Forestry and an industry base relying on the forests is not dying, but it is taking on a new level of activity and a new type of activity and other opportunities have to be introduced and nurtured in this community if it is to “move forward” as they say. Whether forestry or other activity, a head in the sand attitude, a complacent attitude, a negative attitude .. all will be to this community’s detriment.

We need more R & D when it comes to working on our forests. Unless some one finds the site of a copper mine or oil well or uranium mine or a tin mine or gold mine somewhere around Beaverely.

Over the last few years Canfor and the other major forest product companies in BC have bought up sawmills in the United States. These companies whose ROOTS are in our communities, have been closing mills at an alarming rate here in BC and across Canada. These companies pay hefty tariffs on finished lumber products shipped to the US. Remember the SOFTWOOD LUMBER AGREEMENT? These forest companies pay NOTHING in tariffs for raw logs that they ship to the US and abroad. These companies are shipping these raw logs to company owned mills in the US. Our governments are allowing these companies to export OUR jobs by allowing the export of OUR raw logs. Recently there was a sale of a pulpmill in BC to a Chinese company. This mill has been disassembled and shipped to China. Wait a minute, there is no timber in China that this mill could use. However, along with the sale of the mill was the sale of the timber, OUR timber, OUR jobs. You see what these government backed companies are doing to families and communities in our country? These companies have no interest in you, our families or our communities. If you think they do then you need to just say no to drugs. All the companies are interested in is $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
You can all sit around and argue who is subsidizing who, who needs to pay more tax than who, what should be done to revitalize the downtown, why we should or should not have the Olympics, who's fault it is the Cameron street bridge is a wreck, how big the potholes are, etc, etc, etc. The bottom line is, and mark my words. If the people of this province, (NOT the government, but THE PEOPLE) do not stop the export of OUR raw logs and OUR jobs to the United States and other countries then we are toast. Look at Mackenzie BC, 70% unemployment. I wonder how much that family home that was worth $200,000.00 will fetch now. This scenerio will effect all of us everywhere if we don't put a stop to this corporate greed.

STOP RAW LOG EXPORTS
STOP RAW LOG EXPORTS
STOP RAW LOG EXPORTS

The average millworker makes an average wage of $45,000 a year multilpy that by 2000+ laid of workers and that amounts to $90 million plus that isnt being factored into the northern economy. Now factor in all the supporting businesses that keep mills running with a steady fiber suply and thats an astonishing amout of $$ that isnt being pumped into our economy.

Check out the Global News "insight" at 6:00 running all week and they are doing a story on the downturn of the forest industry in the north. Cheers!

Does anyone out there believe forestry isnt key to PG? I would be surprised to hear it. The question in my mind is whether people are going off the deep end regarding the state of the industry. I realise that the media and financial sectors have incredibly short attention spans (witness the headlines regarding the stock market on a day to day basis). I also realise that the many closures and layoffs are distressing. However, i wonder whether we are being a little too doom and gloom and thus doing more harm than good.
BEing concerned about the state of forestry is a good thing. Acting like the sky is fallinf is another . Commodities are an up and down investment.

"Commodities are an up and down investment".

RAW LOGS are just going down, down across the border.

Does anyone out there believe forestry isnt key to PG? I would be surprised to hear it. The question in my mind is whether people are going off the deep end regarding the state of the industry. I realise that the media and financial sectors have incredibly short attention spans (witness the headlines regarding the stock market on a day to day basis). I also realise that the many closures and layoffs are distressing. However, i wonder whether we are being a little too doom and gloom and thus doing more harm than good.
BEing concerned about the state of forestry is a good thing. Acting like the sky is fallinf is another . Commodities are an up and down investment.

caranmacil...you must work for Fraser or Canfor??? Are you here in official capacity or off duty?

The Canadian Gov't allows fraser/canfor to do whatever they please while canadian forestry workers (10K in the past year as reported this week) jobs vanish.

All in the quest of pleasing the the twin 400 lb gorilla's as they continue gaining marketshare and being the last mills standing.

Your Gov't allows them to do it vs manage their stumpage or their exports.So in 5 years it will all be one company and a handful of super-mills (aka less workers)

The every day people on both side of the borders are the ones who suffer...so yes, the sky is falling for some of us

get real.

No doubt whatsoever that forestry is a major contributor to the economy of PG. Nobody with a brain would suggest the opposite. On the flip side, you'd also have to be blind, deaf and dumb to not see that the economy of Prince George has indeed changed and expanded in the last 40 years.

The thing I'm really curious about is why people find it so hard to embrace the idea that we can develop other industries and services that can help us diversify the economy in PG. Why do people shun the mere discussion of this topic every time it comes up? Why, when we try to accomplish this, do people give up and start calling the efforts a failure before they even really begin?

Are we that pathetic and insecure as a Region and City to believe that the only thing we are capable of doing is chopping down trees and processing them into paper or boards? I'm beginning to think that we have way too many old loggers in town with nothing better to do than tell stories about how much better things were "in the old days" and tell tales of how "they built this City". Perhaps things were better back then and yes perhaps your efforts did help build the City, but we aren't in those days any longer. The collective attitude of much of the populous in Prince George is stuck in the 70's and 80's and that my friends, is what will hold the future of this City back more than anything else.

I love my hometown of PG and there is nothing I want more than to live here and see the City prosper, but it's getting more difficult everyday to put up with the constant attitude that we are being screwed and that somehow we are helpless to do anything to grow the City. As someone who can pack up and move and work pretty much anywhere in Canada, it's sometimes difficult to understand why I continue to subject myself to all of the crap that eminates from good ole PG. Apologies if my rant offended anyone but I had to get it off my chest.

I don't see anyone thinking we can't diversify our local economy, but we can't stand still and let these companies export our raw logs out of the country, put our people out of work and rake in higher profits than they were when they processed the logs here. If we lose this fight then everyone that had good paying jobs and benefits will lose all that and we will all be earning minimum wage and no benefits. Precisely what these greedy corporations are after. Remember these companies DO NOT CARE about the people in the communities that hand them our resources for them to make megaprofits.

And yes NMG, WE ARE BEING SCREWED

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2006/12/13/bc-logs.html

Lots of high sounding talk on this subject, everyone seems to be an Armchair Quarter Back, or a Sidewalk Superintendent, however as usual lot of talk, no solutions.

How are you going to grow the economy in this City. The population is predicted to continue to drop for the next 10 years at least.

We really cannot continue to fill our Schools, College, University, City Hall, etc with more and more Government jobs because at the end of the day this costs us tax dollars that could be well spent in other areas, plus it is making us a Government Welfare City, and there is no future in that scenario.

Every business of any significance in Prince George is tied to the forest industry, pellets, co-gen, log homes, lumber, pulp and paper, sawmill and logging machinery, trucking industry, warehousing, mapping, wholesale and retail etc; Without the forest industry most of these business's would either downsize or close.

We have a very small world out there to-day and certain areas are growing in leaps and bounds and other areas are downsizing or dying. We could if we chose locate every industrie in the world and see if there is a **fit** for Prince George, however this is a long shot.

Manufacturing wages in China, Pakistan, India, South East Asia range from $2.00 per day to say 4 or 5 dollars per hour. The minimum wage in PG is 8 dollars per hour and Union, and Government wages run from $18.00 per hour to $27.00 per hour. There is absolutely no way that Prince George can compete for these MFG plants.

You might be able to make some inroads by building a huge slaughterhouse and ship the finished product around the world. This would give you a huge cattle and pig industrie, however these plants are already located around North America. Cattle in Alberta, pigs in Arkansas,etc;

We are at best 3000 miles from any major populated area China or New York and with high wages and high transportation costs we cannot compete.

Prince George over the years has convinced itself that it is the engine of the economy in the Central Interior and that all things will come to pass. In actual fact we are a SMALL City with a population of 74000 people, located in the middle of nowhere, with a 500 mile drive to the nearest Metropolitan City.

If you look at the growth for the past 100 years you will get a pretty good idea as to what the growth will be in the next 100 years. Probably 140,000 people at best.

If your 5ft 10in tall, no amount of wishful thinking will get you to 6ft. So I suggest that you get used to Prince George as it is (or smaller) and get on with your life.

When you ignore the Government and Major University forecasts for the North Central Interior, and hang your hat on predications from Developers, Real Estate Salesmen, Chamber of Commerce, IPG, Tourist Board, Downtown Business Assoc. Rotary,Airport Authy, etc; then you deserve what you get.

Where are the predictions of growth from local industry? What are the banks predicating.

Small can be good. Big can be bad.

I see the Softwood Lumber Arbitration Panel found that " exporters in British Columbia and Alberta did not violate the softwood deal because they did not opt for a quota system."

If anyone wishes to read the CBC News story on this issue, the following is the link to it.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/03/04/softwoodruling.html

"Lots of high sounding talk on this subject, everyone seems to be an Armchair Quarter Back, or a Sidewalk Superintendent, however as usual lot of talk, no solutions."

You said it Palopu. Going to include yourself in that group?

;-)

Here are some ideas:

1) Continue to develop the education and health care sectors in order to service the ENTIRE Province north of Williams Lake. People will always need these services, they'll need them whether forestry is booming or not, we are in a good position to grow them, the Province seems willing to set us up as that service center and people working in these industries make pretty good dough. The Government WILL spend this money whether it's in PG or somewhere else, so why shouldn't we try to get the money invested in OUR community?

2) See how we can capitalize on the airport expansion and transportation hub opportunities. Will it ever replace forestry in sheer job numbers? Probably not. Are new jobs better than none? Yup.

3) Explore options to make PG and area a cluster for various forestry related consulting services and/or forestry related R&D initiatives. We could do it as well as anyone in the country and with IT these days, we could service markets anywhere.

4) Explore eco-tourism and other related opportunities. We live in an area of the world that people simply DROOL over, yet we do NOTHING with it, except harvest it. The possibilities are ridiculous.

Palopu, you suggest that even with predictable growth, the population could be 140,000 people 100 years from now. I realize that you just pulled those numbers out of a hat, but they suggest a growth rate of roughly 6,600 people per decade. Even if we cut that in half, how do you think we'll create those jobs if your outlook for PG is so dismal?

Its a little late so could someone else do the math for me...........2000 mill workers unemployed and its roughly 1:1 ratio for loggers and truckers so thats another 2000. Now how many office jobs, etc are generated from all these jobs? How many suppliers,mechanics,welders, machinists, salesmen, etc directly deal with mills and logging equipment? What about automobile dealers, fuel suppliers, etc that supply and service all these people? Now that you've added all these people up for me could you please multiply it by their income. I guess $45,000 would do but I think thats fairly conservative. Now can you figure out how much that is for the next few years until things pick up again. OK, when you've got that figured out we'll start on figuring out the indirect impact.

There is no doubt that the B.C.forest industry is in big trouble and it will probably only get worse before it ever gets better.
We do need to learn to do things differently and find other ways to make better use of what we have.
We probably should have started that a long time ago, but nobody thinks that far ahead when times are good.
That's human nature.
Part of the problem is that it is hard to see yourself in a completely different situation,perhaps in another place,when you have had the security of a solid,top dollar job,a home,and a good life for so long.
And it is not always as simple as it would seem at first glance.
The trickledown effect is huge, and it covers a lot more than just the forestry workers themselves.
The longer the downturn goes on,the bigger the ripple gets.
And some people really have no place to go.
The solutions ARE in finding ways to diversify, but it can be hard to see that far down the road when you are watching everything you have had and worked for start to turn to crap.
Diversification doesn't happen over the short term,it takes years.
I have friends affected in MacKenzie and those people are devastated.
They do their best to remain positive, but it's a damn scary position to be in when the only light you can see in the tunnel is the train coming at you!

"the population could be 140,000 people 100 years from now"

Nobody in their right mind would predict that far ahead and expect to have anything near an approximation of the actual that will come to be. To see why, just think back 100 years with respect to Canada's population numbers and the numbers for Canadian Cities.

This world will not likely grow in population the way it did over the last 100 years. Population in the world will likely continue to shift in unpredictable directions with respect to geographic locations. Just think of the shift as a result of migration in the past 100 years. Who here is going to try to predict world migration in the next 100 years?

100 years ago people still came here for fur and possibly gold as well as to homestead. There was no transportation system in place to haul anything substantial, like lumber, to anywhere. Any lumber produced was produced for local needs, not needs in BC or the US.

100 years ago there was no commercial aviation anywhere.

Does anyone think that the world will stand still in the next 100 years? ... That we have seen all the major technological changes in the last 100 years which influence migration patterns?

psst ... I have some cheap land for sale, jut for you.

;-)

And then there is the Cariboo Connector which is projected to be finished by then...

;-)

10,000 forestry jobs gone in past year
Sawmills are shutting down across the province -- some sporadically, some for good. The situation isn't likely to improve any time soon


Gordon Hamilton, Vancouver Sun
Published: Saturday, March 01, 2008


http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=8450a367-0e58-4e92-9901-0ee170c62b5a

Owl 100 years or 90 years what is the difference? Look at the past 10 years for North Central BC **No Growth** Forcast for the next 10 years **No Growth**

We have been exporting lumber to the USA since the 1940's by rail. The railway arrived here in the early 1900's so we already have the first 100 years to reveiw if we wished to. Alcan came on line in the fifties (55 years ago) the pulp mills in the early 60's(45 years ago). Nothing much since then except the gold plated, platinum trimmed, diamond studded University.

There has been a lot of shifting of business' around this city but no real growth. How many schools closed in the past 10 years(15?)

People think that if you build a WalMart, Home Depot etc; that you are growing, however they never look at what you lost.

IE: Woodwards, Woolworth, Kresge's McCleods, Stedmans, Fields, Eatons, Safeway, Super Value, Extra Foods, Mcinnis Blding Supplies, Thunderbird Electric, Etc: Etc: When you deduct the lost jobs etc; from the closed business;s from the so called **new business's you would probably end up with ***No Growth***

In my humble opinion we are on a slow boat to nowhere in this area, and things are not going to change much.

If they are going to change then give me some specifics, that actually have a business plan, and that are backed by some real Private Enterprise money.

Forget the CN Intermodal terminal as it will only maintain the status quo.

Forget the Airport Runway Expansion because at best it will be a gassing station for Imperial Oil with very few spin-offs.

Mining will come on stream and will certainly be a help to the outlying area's however for each mine coming on stream there is one due to close.

Possible mine closures in the next 5 years.
(1) Huckleberry Mine Houston BC
(2) Kemess North (Mackenzie)
(3) Gibralter Mines

These closures will offset the opening of new mines and therefore **No Growth**

Have a nice day.