Hartley Miller’s Slap Shots – May 25th, 2012
Friday, May 25, 2012 @ 3:45 AM
Sometimes numbers back up theories. It seems there have been more close games in the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs than previous years and as it turns out this perception is not an illusion.
With several games remaining, there have already been more one-goal games this year than there were in all of the 2008, 2009 and 2010 playoffs. The 2011 playoffs had 48 games decided by one goal. There were 51 one-goal games in 2007 which is the most in the past 10 years. In fact, 46 of the first 79 post-season games have been decided by a single goal, and in nine other games, the two-goal margin of victory included an empty-netter.
Conversely, blowout games (difference of three or more goals) have been rare; just 14 in comparison to 20 last year and 33 in 2010. There is just one year (2003) in the past 10 that saw fewer than 20 and that total was 17.
The L.A. Kings dominance in the Western Conference is reflected in the stats. The Kings are 4-0 in one-goal games, 6-2 when the margin is two goals and 2-0 in blowouts. They have outscored their opponent 41-22.
The New York Rangers have 12 of their 19 games decided by one goal (They are 6-6). The totals for the other Conference finalists include: Phoenix 6-4 and New Jersey 5-2 in one-goal games.
With these tight games, the importance of the first goal is magnified as the team that has scored first is 54-25 (68 %).
Home ice has not been a factor as road teams are 44-35. The visitors have also won 14 of the 22 overtime games.
In the 13 completed series, four have gone the full seven games, two went six games, six were completed in five and there was one sweep (LA over St. Louis).
By the way, the Rangers are trying to make history. Since the Stanley Cup went to a best of 7 format in 1987 for all four rounds, no team has won Lord Stanley’s Mug after having to go the full seven games in each of the first two rounds. No team has won the Cup after playing more than 18 games in the first three rounds. The Rangers are already at 19 and counting.
The stats also confirm that LA’s Jonathan Quick and Henrik Lundqvist of the Rangers (not necessarily in that order) have been the best goalies.
Here are some conclusions:
- Pre-playoff seedings mean nothing: #8 LA is proof of that.
- It doesn’t matter where the game is played: Even in crucial game 7’s, the home team is just 2-2
- Because most games are low-scoring and decided by a goal, the first goal is paramount:
- Goaltending is everything: The Rangers are just another team without Henrik Lundqvist.
- Power-play stats, while important, are overrated: The Kings are operating at 8.1 per cent, the 2nd lowest of 16 playoff teams. Florida was at 33.3 % and Pittsburgh at 31 % and both were eliminated in the first round. Philadelphia at 35.7 % leads the league but were bounced handily in round two. The Kings on the other hand have been superb on the penalty kill at 91.2 %.
- Face off win percentage has little relevance: New Jersey, LA and the Rangers are the three lowest teams among all playoff teams at 48.6 % or less.
- Suspense ends after two periods: The Kings, Rangers and Devils are all 1000 % when leading after 40 minutes of play. Six other eliminated teams also had not lost when up after two.
While the aforementioned information may be interesting, it really isn’t surprising. Most of that data can be applied to every year. We know in advance the first goal is crucial, home ice is not, having the lead after two periods is a virtual lock and nothing is more important than goaltending.
In other words, we have learned nothing. So why then are we shocked year in and year out when a team like L.A. comes out of the woodwork to make an impressive run? After all, they meet the criteria as much as anyone. It all comes down to numbers never seem to lie and that well known cliché that the more things change, the more they stay the same.
From the Quote Rack:
A jersey worn by Babe Ruth sold for $4.4 million. Apparently it still has a mark on it from when the Babe was hit by a pitch from Jamie Moyer.
“I’ll Have Another” won the Preakness, putting himself in position to win horse racing’s first Triple Crown in 34 years. Or as Maple Leafs fans say “Only Yesterday.”
Contributor Janice Hough of Palo Alto, Californiawww.leftcoastsportsbabe.com
A man has outlined detailed plans to build the USS Enterprise and have it explore space. The plan would require a trillion dollars and take generations to accomplish. The author of the report says the only comparable building projects are the pyramids and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Who do you think is most unfamiliar with the saying “I’m all ears”? Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke or Prince Charles?
Contributor Derek Wilken of Calgaryhttp://smacksport.blogspot.com
New York Rangers coach John Tortorella is being criticized for his abrupt, one-word answers during his post-game news conferences. And yet it’s the Devils coach who is the (DA) bore.
Comedy writer Marc Ragovin of New York
Reuters reports an elephant in the Washington, DC, zoo has taken up playing the harmonica. Zookeepers nicknamed her CFL because she plays for peanuts.
Comedy writer RJ Currie www.Sportsdeke.com
A&E has cancelled ‘Dog the Bounty Hunter’. But Duane did file an appeal to Roger Goodell.
An annular eclipse occurs when
a)the moon blots out the sun
b)the moon blots out a Barry Zito fastball
a)the moon blots out the sun
b)the moon blots out a Barry Zito fastball
Contributor Bill Littlejohn of South Lake Tahoe, California
A Tennessee man, Desmond Hatchett, has fathered 30 children with 11 different women. Wow, and I don’t even remember a Desmond Hatchett playing in the NBA.
Comedy writer Jerry Perisho http://monologuewriter.blogspot.com/
The Olympic flame arrived in Britain from Greece. It was sent C.O.D.
Vancouver comedy writer Torben Rolfsen, on the financial issues in Greece.
And in case you missed it:
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg married his long time girl friend Priscilla Chan. They have already left for their honeymoon in Farmville.
Comedy writer TC Chong of Vancouver (http://alwaysfunny.com/)
Hartley Miller is the sports director for radio stations 94X and the Wolf@97fm. He also writes for the PG Free Press. Send along a quote, note, or anecdote to hmiller@94xfm.com.
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