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October 30, 2017 4:53 pm

Economist Says Refine Our Tar Sands Oil In Canada

Wednesday, October 10, 2012 @ 3:59 AM
Robyn Allan appeared before the Environmental review into the Enbridge pipeline as an expert witness in insurance and as an economist. This is the fourth and final instalment of her position with regard to the pipeline.  To read previous installments, click here for Part OneHere for Part Two and here for part three.
Economist Robyn Allan says that despite what we are being told, Canada has a number of options regarding our energy strategy which would provide a win, win for Canadians and the people of Alberta.
She says the key is to get western crude to eastern Canada and remove our dependency on higher priced Brent oil which is imported from volatile and uncertain markets like the Middle East.
Allan would like to see Alberta expand upgrading capacity to not only reduce its reliance on condensate import pipelines, but to where condensate can become an exportable Canadian product.
She says  if Canadian industry continues to claim up graders are not economic, then let’s store the unprocessed bitumen in the ground for free until refineries are viable.
If dilbit exports were restricted from Alberta, as Prime Minister Harper promised they would be in his election in 2008, sufficient and profitable upgrading capacity would be built and the growing dependency on foreign condensate imports would be avoided.
Allan says the pipeline is designed to carry 850,000 barrels a day of dilbit and 274,000 barrels a day of condensate. That additional capacity which could be accomplished by increasing the pumping stations and pumping power. Enbridge would not have to go full comprehensive hearing to be able to make this happen.
Allan lined out three risks that she says comes from the Enbridge line.
One; when dilbit hits the water it is not like conventional oil. The condensate evaporates and the bitumen sinks.
Risk two is to ship crude oil down a pipeline in a remote area and then transfer it to large oil tankers.
The third risk she says is Enbridge, who have never operated a marine terminal and has an international reputation for significant corporate systemic risk and organizational deficiencies that led to its culture of deviance from prudent safety standards. "Kalamazoo is an example of how they handle oil spills" Allan says.

Comments

“If dilbit exports were restricted from Alberta, as Prime Minister Harper promised they would be in his election in 2008 ….. “

He promised that? In that case I guess he is just another politician who speaks with forked tongue …..

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1216180–canada-s-energy-strategy-is-not-made-in-canada

“Requiring bitumen be upgraded before it’s exported would have significant environmental and economic advantages for Canada — that’s why Stephen Harper promised during his re-election campaign in 2008 that raw bitumen would not be exported to Asia. His government continued to publicly extol this policy until Enbridge filed its application for Northern Gateway in June 2010 and made it clear to Harper what his policy actually needed to be.”

So cancelling the pipeline automatically gets environmentalists to support a massive refinery in BC or Alberta? To have it fast-tracked through the approvals process? Built in less than 10 years?

BS…No matter what happens, they want no economic activity in the “Tar-sands” PERIOD! This pipeline nonsense is just that.

What makes you think that?

Why do you bring the word “envionmenalists” into this as if is some sort of curse.

There are traditionally three legs to the sustainability stool – social, economic, environmental.

To provide our logs, to provide our bitumen, to provide our jobs to people outside of this country before we turn over the dollar a few times is against national security and against economic/energy sustainability.

Even with a refinery the finished products have to be transported to a port for export. People are going to try and stop that. Look at the refinery in Richmond and how they are complaining about that, yet that refinery has been there for years. Most people didn’t even know about the pipeline to that refinery until just recently.

You have various components within the opposition to the pipeline.

a) Natives who can be pacified with truck loads of cash.
b) Unionists who can be pacified with truck loads of cash.
c) Urban latte sipping progressives who can be told what to think. More use of truck loads of cash.
d) Leftists bloggers who stand for nothing but a hatred of all Conservatives and Conservative decisions.

Just like with fracking in the Horn river basin and the subsequent shipping of the gas to Alberta…the left in BC likes to pocket the royalties from oil and gas exploitation within their borders, and couldn’t care less if the product is shipped through Alberta.

I wonder if the NDP will introduce a moratorium on fracking? Or will they choose to be environmentalists of convenience like most on here.

Styxxx: “Just like with fracking in the Horn river basin and the subsequent shipping of the gas to Alberta…the left in BC likes to pocket the royalties from oil and gas exploitation within their borders, and couldn’t care less if the product is shipped through Alberta.”

An inconvenient truth to be sure. Shutting down industry activity in BC would not be a good thing. Too bad many NDP supporters do not realize this.

Economist Robyn Allan, curious who signs her pay check?

I hope we realize that EVERYONE can be bought ….. left, right or centre …. even the Roman Catholic Church …..

oh, no … wait …. they do the buying …;-)

So, let’s deal with the fundamental issues instead of the money and who it goes to …..

http://www.robynallan.com/about

Government corporations mainly in the past ….

You did not think she was a turnoat, or did you?

“So, let’s deal with the fundamental issues instead of the money and who it goes to …..”

Why, so its okay to ask to see the money behind Enbridge but not okay to see the money behind the NGO’s. Okay I understand now.

Admittedly I do not claim to be an authority on pipelines or the best financial security of Canada. But common sence tells me that Canadian Dill Bit and our own refineries and canadian transmission lines are a required proponent to Canadian security and soverenty. In days gone by Canadians were self reliant and successful in fighting a war. I am confident we will succede in our endeavors.

Enbridge spokesman speaking today at the Chamber of commerce, she said and I quote..

“Enbridge has no responsibility for the oil once it leaves the pipeline, we will not be held responsible or accepy any liability for tanker spills”

Well well well..

Liberian registered tankers with a maximum of $300 million in insurance..

Nuff said, they separated the company, a limited partnership with no assets..

This game is over for Enbridge and Gateway pipeline.

http://www.cknw.com/news/audiovault/index.aspx

Go to cknw audio vault, cue up 3:00pm…

Fast forward to 33 minute mark..Enbridge washed their hands of any super-tanker spills

Why would Enbridge be liable for any tanker spills? It is up to the Government of Canada to regulate the ship traffic and ensure their cargo is secured in a safe manner.

I am missing the relevance of the question.

The very maximum supertankers can be insured for is $1 billion dollars…Exxon valdez spill, the cost of clean up was $4 billion, and still it wasn`t cleaned, how do you sue or collect from Liberian registered supertankers?

http://www.frankejames.com/pdf/WhoPaysfactsheet.pdf

You likely will never collect from a tanker spill. That has to be insured by Canada and likely in the end by BC… a spill of dilbit would be nothing like Exxon Valdez as we could never clean up a dilbit spill with all the money in the world. The collateral damage would be to everyone else who uses our coast and they have no insurance what so ever.

Enbridge however they limit their liability on the risky pipeline with the front company Northern Gateway Pipelines because they say their investors need to protect their investments. Once again that means BC takes all the risk and they take all the profits.

Northern Gateway as a front company claims they will increase the value of a Canadian barrel of oil by $20 at todays prices… their spokeswomen today said not only for Enbridge oil, but for every barrel of oil in Canada. If you look at Vancouver paying $1.50 a liter for gas than that would likely mean after taxes $1.84 in today’s prices. It would bankrupt the economy.

The greater part of the $270 billion hypothetical benefit to Canada put forward by Enbridge is the inflation in value of a barrel of oil that Canadians will pay for every barrel of oil over the life of the project… even if Enbridge only sells 10,000 barrels a day at the new ‘market prices’ its mission accomplished for the oil industry as it sets the new market price… money in the bank… so much so that this new reality of a 20% premium on their existing revenue stream that they can leverage this new free cash flow to finance the entire Northern Gateway project with no real out of pocket money of their own… limit the liability and its a no loose proposal by the oil industry. Canadian national oil affordability and security is the big looser.

Canadians pay more for our oil and oil based products, and this added premium pays for the financing of the project. Canadians in the end get to pay for all the collateral costs if the project springs a leak.

Face it the oil industry and Stephen Harper think we are all here to subsidize the oil industry and their risk free shareholder profits.

Correct, my estimates it would cost BC drivers $700 million dollars per year in higher fuel prices..

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Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline Will Cost BC Drivers $700 million Every Single Year

Here is the latest weather forecast for Hecate Strait on the Northern West Coast, cut n pasted from Environment Canada.

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Marine Forecast
Winds
Issued 10:30 AM PST 03 January 2012
Today Tonight and Wednesday Hurricane force wind warning in effect.
Wind southeast 45 to 55 knots diminishing to 25 to 35 near noon then increasing to 35 to 45 early this evening. Wind increasing to south 55 to 65 late this evening then diminishing to 35 to 45 before Wednesday morning. Wind diminishing to south 25 to 35 early Wednesday morning then veering to southwest 30 to 40 Wednesday afternoon.
Waves
Issued 04:00 AM PST 03 January 2012
Today Tonight and Wednesday Seas 2 to 3 metres building to 3 to 4 early this morning and to 5 to 7 late this morning. Seas building to 7 to 10 after midnight.(That would be 34 foot high waves)
Extended Forecast
Issued 04:00 AM PST 03 January 2012
Thursday Wind southwest 30 to 40 knots diminishing to northwest 25 in the afternoon.
Friday Wind southeast 35 to 45 knots diminishing to southwest 20 late in the day.
Saturday Wind south 25 knots increasing to southeast 45.
Weather & Visibility
Issued 10:30 AM PST 03 January 2012
Today Tonight and Wednesday Rain at times heavy.

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The above weather forecast was cut n pasted from Weather Canada

Hurricane force winds again, every month there are hurricane force winds on our northern coast, with 1 to 2 oil tankers per day, they will pile up, big ships 4 times the length of a football field, these vessels under pressure would indeed travel in this weather, they would also wreck on our coast and destroy it for centuries, not if a spill happens but when, Enbridge can`t guarantee anything, their own records prove out that fact!!!!!!….The fact that Enbridge has had 804 major pipeline spills in the last 10 years, they average nearly 100 major pipeline ruptures per year..FACT, FACT, FACT…..
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Spills and violations
Using data from Enbridge’s own reports, the Polaris Institute calculated that 804 spills occurred on Enbridge pipelines between 1999 and 2010. These spills released approximately 168,645 barrels (26,812.4 m3) of hydrocarbons into the environment.[8]
On July 4, 2002 an Enbridge pipeline ruptured in a marsh near the town of Cohasset, Minnesota in Itasca County, spilling 6,000 barrels (950 m3) of crude oil. In an attempt to keep the oil from contaminating the Mississippi River, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources set a controlled burn that lasted for 1 day and created a smoke plume about 1-mile (1.6 km) high and 5 miles (8.0 km) long.[9]
In 2006, there were 67 reportable spills totaling 5,663 barrels (900.3 m3) on Enbridge’s energy and transportation and distribution system; in 2007, there were 65 reportable spills totaling 13,777 barrels (2,190.4 m3) [10]
On March 18, 2006, approximately 613 barrels (97.5 m3) of crude oil were released when a pump failed at Enbridge’s Willmar terminal in Saskatchewan.[11] According to Enbridge, roughly half the oil was recovered, the remainder contributing to ‘off-site’ impacts.
On January 1, 2007 an Enbridge pipeline that runs from Superior, Wisconsin to near Whitewater, Wisconsin cracked open and spilled ~50,000 US gallons (190 m3) of crude oil onto farmland and into a drainage ditch.[12] The same pipeline was struck by construction crews on February 2, 2007, in Rusk County, Wisconsin, spilling ~126,000 US gallons (480 m3) of crude. Some of the oil filled a hole more than 20 feet (6.1 m) deep and was reported to have contaminated the local water table.[13]
In April 2007, roughly 6,227 barrels (990.0 m3) of crude oil spilled into a field downstream of an Enbridge pumping station near Glenavon, Saskatchewan. Long-term site remediation is being attempted to bring the site to “as close as possible to its original condition”.[11]
In 2009, Enbridge Energy Partners, a US affiliate of Enbridge Inc., agreed to pay $1.1 million to settle a lawsuit brought against the company by the state of Wisconsin for 545 environmental violations.[14][15] The violations were incurred while building portions of the company’s Southern Access pipeline, a ~$2.1 billion project to transport crude from the oil sands region in Alberta to Chicago. In a news release from Wisconsin’s Department of Justice, Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen said “…the incidents of violation were numerous and widespread, and resulted in impacts to the streams and wetlands throughout the various watersheds.”
In January 2009 an Enbridge pipeline leaked about 4,000 barrels (640 m3) of oil southeast of Fort McMurray at the company’s Cheecham Terminal tank farm. It was reported in the Edmonton Journal3), sprayed into the air and coated nearby snow and trees.[16] that most of the spilled oil was contained within berms, but that about 1% of the oil, about 40 barrels (6.4 m
April 2010 an Enbridge pipeline ruptured spilling more than 1500 litres of oil in Virden, Manitoba, which leaked into the Boghill Creek which eventually connects to the Assiniboine River.[17]
July 2010, a leaking pipeline spilled an estimated 843,444 US gallons (3,192.78 m3) of crude oil into Talmadge Creek leading to the Kalamazoo River in southwest Michigan on Monday, July 26.[18][19]
On September 9, 2010, a rupture on Enbridge’s Line 6A pipeline near Romeoville, Illinois released an estimate 6,100 barrels (970 m3) of oil into the surrounding area.[

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Well guess what, a shocking revelation has come to light,a couple of weeks ago a report from the University of Alberta was released, a report that made a very honest representation of the financial numbers, the University of Alberta report stated,…That the Alberta oil producers would be the big winner with an Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline, to the tune of $billions per pear, the report also stated that the Province of British Columbia would receive the least benefit ($131 million dollars in royalties over the life of the project)…Ontario would receive roughly $400 million dollars while Alberta would receive almost all the money, $10`s of billions per year….British Columbia would take ALL of the risk, the pipeline would have to cross 1200 rivers and streams in BC land, plus the inevitable oil tanker wreck on the BC Hurricane force wind-filled northern coast, BC would take all that risk for for $14 million dollars per year, the BP gulf of Mexico spill has cost over $40 billion to partially clean up..

Now perhaps you might be wondering what the “latest shocking revelation” is…..Here`s the deal, Alberta Tar Sand whores want the Northern Enbridge pipeline for one main reason…..That reason is….To get a higher price for their oil!!….That higher price is the Brent Crude price, Brent Crude averages 10% to 15% more the WTI North American price…..Here are the quotes from different sources.
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EDMONTON — Oil producers could lose $72 billion over a nine-year-period if a pipeline to carry Alberta bitumen to the West Coast isn’t built, a new report for the Alberta government says as community hearings for the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway project are about to begin this month in British Columbia.

In a 44-page report submitted before Christmas to the federal government panel reviewing the pipeline project, consultants for Alberta Energy peg potential losses for oil producers in the project at $8 billion every year between 2017 and 2025.

The forecast, drawn up by Houston-based consultant Harold York for the firm Wood Mackenzie, is largely based on the expectation that Alberta oil sells at a higher price on an international market than it does in North America.

“If we can get it offshore, there are a lot more markets available to us which are willing to pay a higher price,” Alberta Energy spokesman Tim Markle said.

Read more: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Alta+producers+lose+billions+Northern+Gateway+pipeline+built/5937894/story.html#ixzz1iQt7IUnc

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Enbridge`s “Stanway added that the proposal has a strong economic case to make, starting with an estimated $2.4-billion-per-year increase in revenue to Canada’s oil industry through higher prices producers would be able to generate from selling into wider markets.

“The real driving force behind Northern Gateway is the strategic argument for Canada having access to world markets for its most valuable export product,” Stanway said.

Read more: http://www.canada.com/news/Public+hearings+Enbridge+Northern+Gateway+pipeline+begin/5932933/story.html#ixzz1iQwZGhHh
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So there you have it, we have an Alberta University submitting a report that shows BC receiving a mere $131 million dollars over the life of the project, couple that with increased prices at the pump, we have seen this picture before, the HST, a yearly $2 billion dollar tax shift from corporations on to consumers back, a huge benefit to big corporations, $2 billion dollars out of BC consumers pockets directly into corporate profits, we were promised lower prices and jobs, but what we got was higher prices and thousands of lost jobs, the exact same scenario will happen with the Enbridge northern pipeline, as soon as they start selling Alberta crude on the international market they will be charging the brent crude price, our fuels prices will rise by 10% to 20% almost immediately…..Remember when oil surged to $150 dollars per barrel in 2009, our pump price was $1.50 plus per litre, no breaks for Canadians, we were subject to full pricing, pricing higher than what the Americans paid…

The Northern Enbridge pipeline will see BC drivers paying an additional $600 million dollars plus per year, Canadians as a whole will pay roughly $7 billion dollars more per year….

Think about it, which route would more and more Tar sand oil travel, south for a $100 dollars a barrel or west for $115 dollars a barrel?…Exactly, which oil company would settle for the lower price? Eventually all the Tar Sand bitumen will rise to the Brent crude price….How does $1.70 to $2.00 a litre sound?

Here, let me describe the sound…Kaching, Kaching!

So here`s the deal, the Enbridge Northern pipeline, Enbridge who have had 1000 pipeline spills in the last decade, including a savage spill of 844,000 gallons of crude oil into the Kalamazoo river last year, Enbridge wants their pipeline to cross 1200 rivers and streams in BC on its way to Kitimat where giant Supertankers 4 times longer than a football field will have to travel the roughest, windiest coastline in the world, a coastline where hurricane force winds blow almost weekly!!!…Including this week!….

And for all of this risk, for tempting fate, waiting for the inevitable spill, for a cost of $700 million dollars per year to B.C. drivers, just what is our benefit?

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The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy issued an analysis Thursday concluding that with expanded pipeline access to U.S. and Asian markets, Canada’s gross domestic product would jump $132 billion in 2010 dollars between 2016 and 2030, generating $27 billion in federal, provincial and municipal taxes and 649,000 person-years of employment.

But the study also shows that the overwhelming economic benefit of pipeline expansion to B.C. goes to Alberta.

The opening of the Asian market would trigger $10.5 billion in gains and 52,000 person-years of employment in Canada, but almost $10 billion of that wealth and 44,000 person-years go to Alberta.

Ontario would get $286 million and 4,000 person-years, while B.C. would enjoy $131 million and 2,000 person-years.

The study also “suggests” that B.C. would gain an additional $85 million in GDP and another 1,000 person-years due to increased exports to California if pipelines are built to the West Coast.

Read more: http://www.canada.com/business/decision+pipeline+will+signal+world+Alberta+premier+says/5867912/story.html#ixzz1gsTYLF5a
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British Columbia would receive a mere $131 million …..SHOCKING, Enbridge, the ALBERTA Government, the Federal Government wants B.C. to risk everything, our last 89 Orca, our wild salmon, kelp forests, our pristine northern coastline for a staggering $131 million dollars, or if you like, $14.3 million dollars per year, not enough money over 16 years to pay for a quarter of a new BC Place roof!

Alberta Government, Enbridge and Stephen Harper want BC and Canadian drivers to pay $billions of dollars more each and every single year all in the name of funneling more largesse to Big oil Vampires, ..

Do the math people, $700 million per year in higher fuel prices over 15 years comes to…

$10.5 billion dollars in extra costs to BC drivers and…..A staggering $105 Billion dollars more in cost to Canadian drivers as a whole!

Brent crude,current price over $113 dollars per barrel

North American/Current Canadian price..$100 dollars per barrel.

A 10% plus difference in price, do the math people, BCers and Canadians are being led to the gas pump slaughterhouse.

Below are the stats Canada figures for fuel consumption by Province, as you will see, British Columbia drivers bought 5 billion litres of fuel in 2010….At an average cost of even $1 dollar per litre, B.C. drivers spent well over $5 billion dollars on fuel, raise the price of crude oil to the international brent crude price and even if Alberta oil rises by 10% …Even at 10% the cost to BC Drivers per year will be roughly $700 million dollars every single year….

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Sales of fuel used for road motor vehicles, by province and territory
(Alberta, British Columbia, Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
thousand litres
Canada
Net sales of gasoline 38,653,955 39,635,182 39,148,560 39,708,461 40,558,727
Gross sales of gasoline 39,918,335 40,848,495 40,496,036 41,028,454 41,885,365
Net sales of diesel oil 16,611,819 17,133,467 16,555,321 16,188,394 16,701,960
Alta.
Net sales of gasoline 5,139,600 5,298,000 5,317,300 5,350,400 5,410,900
Gross sales of gasoline 5,368,100 5,536,200 5,608,400 5,569,300 5,618,300
Net sales of diesel oil 3,373,400 3,580,000 3,488,800 3,632,700 3,629,600
B.C.
Net sales of gasoline 4,524,469 4,554,406 4,467,255 4,536,112 4,760,666
Gross sales of gasoline 4,719,356 4,749,604 4,619,653 4,646,008 4,915,626
Net sales of diesel oil 1,721,635 1,796,611 1,714,031 1,647,876 1,838,578
Y.T.
Net sales of gasoline 61,536 60,741 62,797 67,053 70,133
Gross sales of gasoline 63,839 62,816 64,950 69,738 71,502
Net sales of diesel oil 43,137 43,789 46,827 50,197 54,828
N.W.T.
Net sales of gasoline 37,250 38,855 37,312 38,149 42,959
Gross sales of gasoline 46,724 47,898 46,939 47,289 49,706
Net sales of diesel oil 113,045 162,327 112,391 86,013 65,588
Nvt.
Net sales of gasoline 12,016 17,179 17,687 22,992 12,291
Gross sales of gasoline 12,016 17,179 17,687 22,991 12,291
Net sales of diesel oil 5,188 6,360 5,966 5,248 7,541
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So there you have it, The Straight Goods on the NOT-Going to Happen Northern Enbridge pipeline, Enbridge`s pipeline will give the B.C. Government $131 million dollars over 15 years, it will risk BC,s pristine coastline, risk rivers and streams, risk wild salmon, for this $131 million dollars all it will cost BC drivers is $10.5 billion dollars and cost Canadian drivers $105 Billion dollars over the life of the project..,,,,……………………………………………………………

The Straight Goods

Cheers Eyes Wide Open

A long winded post, but I appreciate the effort. The proposed pipeline is a bad deal for British Columbia.
metalman.

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