Planning for Climate Change
Tuesday, March 19, 2013 @ 4:20 AM
Projections for precipitation and temperature changes from 2041- 2070 -maps courtesy City of Prince George
Prince George, B.C. – When it comes to climate change, research shows Prince George is less cold now than it has been in the past. In fact, research presented to City Council shows the minimum temperature has already shown a slight increase over the past 100 years and will increase by 1.6 to 2.5 degrees in the next 30 years. The data also suggests an increased likelihood of wetter winters.
So with milder temperatures in the winter, there are some issues that need to be considered, for example, an increase in icy road incidents. So should the City switch over to using more salt in it’s road safety programs? There is also an effort to see how those wetter winters will impact the spring freshet on the Fraser, and possible ice jam flooding on the Nechako.
Climate change is expected to have an impact on the city’s infrastructure, particularly when you look at the freeze thaw cycles that have had a negative impact on the roads. Manager of Utilities, Dave Dyer, says the data would indicate there have been fewer freeze that cycles between 2000 and 2008, compared to those in the 1940’s and 50’s.
The benefit of the research is to incorporate what they know with what the City should plan in its infrastructure planning to address those climate issues., for instance increasing the size of storm water run off pipes to handle increased run off.
Ian Picketts, a PHD candidate at UNBC, says while the report looked at possible negative impacts of climate change, such as the impact on forests, flooding or infrastructure, there was no attention paid to possible positive impacts that a warmer climate would bring such as increased agricultural growth and increased population as people move here to enjoy the weather. Picketts says Prince George will won’t be as negatively impacted as many other communities “If this were Kelowna I would be speaking with a great deal more urgency because of water supply. Prince George has a very good water supply.”
Comments
Bring on global warming.
“increased population as people move here to enjoy the weather”
LOL …. unless the weather in PG gets sunnier and in the Okanagan gets less sunny .. we are stuck with what we have. I did not see any records of the amount of sun being presented to Council.
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“…. particularly when you look at the freeze thaw cycles that have had a negative impact on the roads. Manager of Utilities, Dave Dyer, says the data would indicate there have been fewer freeze that (sic) cycles between 2000 and 2008, compared to those in the 1940âs and 50âs.”
Fewer???? I could have sworn that City Hall has been telling us there have been more and that is the reason why our roads are in such bad shape.
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We must remember that futurecasting is no different for climate than it is for population migration, the economy, meteorology, forest growth, how many children our grandchildren will have and how many their grandchildren will have and what our primary energy source will be 50 years from now.
The experts predicted a population of over 200,000 for PG by now. I think they were off the mark slightly. The children of those experts are no predicting that we will have trouble hitting the 100,000 mark within the next 25 or 35 years.
As always, we will have to continue to live with uncertainty and be prepared for change. That has been and continues to be the human condition.
Which, of course, reminds me that the OCP is a living document in this community.
We seem to have trouble keeping the plans we make for something that we do actually have some control over ….. ;-)
The neat thing about projecting for a time frame such as 2041-2070, is that those who made the projections will no longer be on this earth or in this community, or in the position of “authority” to be held accountable for their projections and the consequences which may arise from them in the future by actions taken to prepare for projections which may have been in error.
Nice, safe job to have.
Eventually, if you have the time, come to my grave and ask me if I care. Looking at the whole world, I can safely say, “This wasn’t my fault”.
You mean that after you are gone you will still take up space on this earth?
Nope! I’m gonna be cremated. I can appreciate the value of real estate. Also I don’t believe in life after death…but I’m taking a change of underwear just in case. Use my ashes on the steps of PG city hall. (if needed).
Harbinger..
“Use my ashes on the steps of PG city hall. (if needed).”
-Gives a new meaning to your “carbon footprint”!
Climate change theroy is a bunch of bull$shit.. But that doesnt mean we should willfully destroy the only planet we have.
Cheers,
Sounds like a space project that the City could handle.
Cheers
Is this late snow gonna be a “blemish” on the new hockey stick?
Oh My another climate change story. Notice how the term “climate change” has morphed into meaning mann caused climate warming. What term would then be used if the climate cools.
“In fact, research presented to City Council shows the minimum temperature has already shown a slight increase over the past 100 years and will increase by 1.6 to 2.5 degrees in the next 30 years” Sorry Mr. Picketts you have given the council wrong outdated information, you must keep up. Even the UN IPCC have backed off greatly on their projections of temperature rise. The Met office in England advised the English government to expect milder winters and that children will not know snow. Due to this mistaken advice England was ill prepared for the rude last few winters.
It has already been said these are computer projections and the projections so far made on mann caused global warming have not matched real world observations. There has been no global warming for at least 18 years which is against all past dire predictions, in fact since 2008 there has been a slight cooling. How come climate scientists did not see that coming in their predictions.
Sea level rise, well that has also not worked out to projections either, in fact there has actually been a slight decrease in its long term natural rise. The UN had predicted there would be 50 million climate refuges from sea level rise flooding their pacific islands by 2012. Well they quietly removed that projection from their website. Oh those so called flooding islands, well real estate prices are increasing and they are building resorts like crazy.
So notice this article is short on facts backing projections, but keep the funding coming.
For those interested here is an over view on what is really happening, it is longish but a good read
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/18/a-climate-of-scepticism/
Considering how the eastern pacific ocean affects our regional climate and the ocean is showing a long term cooling trend I predict the knitting of toques should be on the councils agenda. Time will tell.
While I agree that one winter’s weather does not a long term trend make (and Seamut has covered all I would have liked to say )I still want to complain. Seems funny for some academic to be telling us how warm it’s gonna get when it has been a damn cold march. I am with the rest of PG’ers who go outside: bring on the global warming! Can we sue if it doesn’t actually warm up here?
For those concerned about the man caused production of C02 here is some information about electric cars. The Nisson Leaf is mentioned here the same car our green uni and city hall are all a goo goo about. Hey its about the toys and funding from taxpayers, not science. read on the dirty little secret about electric cars.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324128504578346913994914472.html
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/19/bad-karma-obama-promotes-electric-cars-but-they-still-fall-short/
Funny predictions, I,m happy if the weather forecast is right three days down the road, nevermind years. Europe has had colder winters than most have ever seen there, snow in Portugal in some places , first time in 18 years ?
“While I agree that one winter’s weather does not a long term trend make”
I hope you ar talking about March this winter, because the data the presenters were using starts in 1956 and goes to the most recent data in 2009/10 or so.
It is available on the City Council web page.
That part is real. It happened. People can jump up and down all they like, it will not chamnge what happened over the last 50+ years.
This years there is some “normal” snow fall, Nowhere near records though. By the time we get to Quesnel, there is virtually no snow. In other years, it has been the opposite, tons of snow there and little here.
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