Mixed Forecast for Housing Starts In P.G.
Thursday, August 15, 2013 @ 12:34 PM
Prince George, B.C.- Although Canada Mortgage and Housing is predicting 1.9% economic growth in B.C. next year, and increased demand for new single detached homes in rural B.C. in 2014, the scenario being painted for Prince George is mixed.
According to CMHC’s latest Housing Market Outlook, CMHC is forecasting a total of 190 new housing starts in Prince George by the end of this year. That would represent a 10% drop in the number of starts ( single detached and multiple dwellings) when compared to 2012.
That prediction is despite the fact the year to date starts in Prince George are up 1.9% over the 2012 numbers, largely due to the increase in multiple family dwelling construction which has so far seen 57 starts, compared to 40 during the same period in 2012.
Single family housing starts are down compared to 2012.
Last year, there had been 63 single family homes starting construction while the year to date figure for 2013 is 48.
However, the prediction for 2014 is more positive, with 160 single, and 70 multiple family construction starts expected, and that would be a 21.1% increase over the current year.
CMHC is predicting increased MLS sales of existing homes throughout B.C. in 2014, but says prices should hold steady.
Comments
“the prediction for 2014 is more positive, with 160 single, and 70 multiple family construction starts expected, and that would be a 21.1% increase over the current year.”
What were the predictions for this year at this time last year? For that matter what were those predictions for the past five years compared to actuals.
I want to know how good these predictions are. Predictions that are close to the mark, say a 5% variance can be useful. Anything with a major up and down spiking from the predicted curve has no usefulness.
PGs numbers never really see a drastic change. The market chugs along at a slow pace which is great for home buyers looking to get in and drives out speculation which in the long run makes living affordable..
If the mortgage rates go up next year that should have downward pressure on starts and in home buying in general. That you don’t need to predict.
I am not too sure about that assessment.
Most housing in Canada and the US is built on speculation not custom. Anything to drive out competition should raise house prices not lower them.
If builders who build on speculation will cut back, that means there will be fewer new houses on the market. In that case, I would think that house prices would start to rise.
We also have to remember that a one percent lift in mortgage rates looks different to a person in Prince George buying a new house for between $300 and $400 thousand and a buyer in the GVRD who has to pay at least twice as much for a similar sized house.
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