Wow..the hits just keep coming :-(

This is a shame. But again, timber supply forecasts are made in advance and industry and government have known for years that the supply would be diminished by the pine beetle outbreak. What I would really like to know is where is the Northern Trust – the fund established with proceeds from the BC Rail sale that were supposed to finance new industry and commerce in the north? We’ve known this has been coming for years. What about the OMineca Action Plan? Another example of an organization created to supposedly ease the demise of the forest industry. Where are these organizations? These people Their proposals????

Northern Trust put a shit load of money into getting the plant running again, and the fiber shortage for Houston is a big ?? . When lumber was at 360-380 we were hauling would from Alberta sales. Just up the road from Houston in Terrace logs are being shipped out to China by the boat load. This is what happens when two employers like Canfor and West Fraser become the only players they careless about communities or workers and 2001 the Present Government changed the forest act and gave all the power and ability to sell, trade, split their timber licences at will with no accountability

I recall seeing on the news that it is a coastal band that holds the harvesting license and owns the logging company that are exporting logs. The spokesman made no apologies saying that it keeps the band members employed with good paying jobs. But go ahead and demonize West Fraser and Canfor they are big boys and can handle it.

You are on the same track I am. We knew about this close to a decade ago. OBAC has been around for most of that time. There is a link at the bottom which lists the people who give it direction. With all the local politicians involved who have the connections, what went wrong?

Their Key Objectives from their site:

Our region exists on a foundation of abundant productive land and natural resources, but we need to create the right set of circumstances if our citizens and the rest of the province are to continue enjoying the potential benefits.

(There was the first mistake. The land was no longer going to be abundant in the forestry sector during our lifetime and that of the next 2 to 3 generations)

Achievement of the following long-term goals will provide strength and resilience across all sectors and communities in the region.

1.By 2025, we will have the most highly educated and skilled citizenry of any rural region in Canada.
(so that they will be able to move somewhere to take up a job if none exist locally)

2.By 2020, community members throughout the region will be connected to each other and to the global community in a manner that allows the exchange of information and ideas as effectively as anywhere in Canada.
(too long, needed to teach the right people the right way and the right purposes for connecting)

3.By 2025 we will be known as a model region for delivery of quality, equitable, coordinated, relevant and cost-effective services to small and rural communities.
(services to small communities does not create a market. We need to provide services AS WELL AS GOODS to the rest of the world.)

4.By 2020 the region will be served by an integrated infrastructure network that enables businesses and citizens to be competitive locally and in the broader marketplace.
(We are just starting with improving the cell network and the electrical capacity and the highways and the rail capacity and the airline capacity)

(we have done NOTHING to understand what brings people and companies to this area and what we need to enhance this part of the world to make this a good living experience. That should have been the starting point. To understand that PEOPLE ARE THE NATURAL RESOURCE IN TODAY’S WORLD)

By building a strong framework through EDUCATED AND SKILLED CITIZENS, CONNECTED COMMUNITIES, ACCESSIBLE HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICES, and EFFICIENT INFRASTRUCTURE we will become one of the most desirable rural regions in the country in which to live, visit and invest.

http://www.ominecacoalition.ca/about.html

They tried, they did not hook up with communities, they had not understanding, no tools and no help pother than a pot load of money to have UNPRODUCTIVE meetings and séances.

Happy Halloween!!!

Then we have C-CBAC

CCBAC Mission Statement

To develop a coalition that will be effective with government regarding the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic and the future of our communities. To ensure that our communities are economically stable, that there are jobs in all sectors, and support the entrepreneurial spirit that is fundamental to the Cariboo-Chilcotin lifestyle.

CCBAC believes it is essential to bring together natural resource managers and economic development expertise to minimize the potential economic impacts of the beetle epidemic, and to make the best of the ensuing opportunities.”

CCBAC Mandate

CCBAC will continue to focus on forest dependent communities within the Cariboo-Chilcotin region that are impacted by the MPB epidemic. These communities include First Nations, municipalities, and unincorporated communities within the Cariboo Regional District.

http://c-cbac.com

Perhaps they would have been more productive if funded by the forest companies the same as the function of regenerating forests is.

You know, this notion of FREE TO GROW, not only pertains to the trees, but also the forest and the communities.

We are not working in an integrated fashion, each with responsibilities that have to be taken seriously.

When attacked by a windstorm, by floods, by earthquakes, by war, the people of the affected communities and the people of the world have learned how to cope.

We are located in modern day backcountry communities having most of the amenities to protect ourselves, yet we are so affected by a little beetle.

WHY????

Talk about global warming deniers. That is nothing. We have been living in a province and a country of beetle deniers and we are seeing the effects.

ewitt … a bunch of trees leaving the country is nothing.

I hit the feds and the province and the community governments as well as those who have major timber licenses for sitting around doing nothing other than saving their own skins.

As people say, follow the money.

When will people understand that when it comes to the so-called natural resources, the money is not where they are. The money is where the people are.

The only time when resources match the location of the money a bit more closely is when the people are the resource, and they gather around the money – any super city in the world will do to see that so-called phenomenon.

“But go ahead and demonize West Fraser and Canfor they are big boys and can handle it.”

I seem to recall that it is those companies that created bigger and bigger sawmills with fewer and fewer workers, and longer and longer feedstock supply chains to increase their so-called productivity.

I recall that in the 1960s and even earlier the projections that airplanes of the future would be larger and could fly farther than airplanes of today.

Yet, today it is smaller and more efficient commuter planes are the main demand.

I think at least one of the licensees somewhere should have tackled the problem they have created for themselves before it became a problem.

All those good things that OBAC and CCBAC and the southern version of the same mindset thought they were doing should have been the way the licensees were working. They had the smarts, but they did not think that they needed to apply them.

In fact, I would not be surprised if they had done something differently, they would not have run into the hassles from the US with respect to tariffs.

Gus. Will you stop blaming all these problems on the Pine Beetle. There are other forces at play.

Did you not read Steph 99. Hauling wood from Alberta, and the reference to all the export logs going through Prince Rupert BC.

There are probably some administration and management problems attached to this shut down. If they cant make it when the price of lumber is high like it is to-day. Then they cant make it ever.

Let get all the details before we blame the beetle.

We need to get those people who cannot do an effective job for the citizens of our communities off the tax supported payrolls.

That might be easier than creating a system which will replace that in which the taxpayer has more control over who get hired and who gets let go.

Representative government needs to have a shake-up. The world is changing. This is not longer 1913 or 1813. Almost every other business works differently today. The business of government remains the same.

WHY???

“Hauling wood from Alberta, and the reference to all the export logs going through Prince Rupert BC.”

Yes, I read all those. And the volume is what compared to the total picture? 1% ? 3% ?

If there was local wood, why would we need to haul wood from Alberta?

Palopu is yet another another beetle denier. :-)

There already is a smaller scale sawmill or two around. One man bandsaw mills that cut custom sized timbers for use for such things as bridge timbers. But because it is such a small market the bigger players have no interest.
Your airplane analogy does not fly;-) a direct comparison would be Boeing or Airbus factories downsizing which would not necessarily happen to produce smaller planes.

Palopu-ever looked out the window of a plane while flying around the province?

Mills start up, mills shut down. It is the circle of life.

ewitt. I have seen all the beetle killed timber. My question is, how much of it has already been logged off in the last 15 years, and how much will be logged off in the next 5 years. How much will actually be wasted.

If we need to harvest this beetle kill in a set number of years, then why are we shutting down mills. We should be increasing production to ensure that all the wood that is marketable is marketed.

The plan was to log those areas first hit, and then go up the ladder until you finally harvest the last of the beetle kill timber. How are we doing with this plan.

I don’t have the figures at hand, however I suggest that we have been cutting the same amount of timber for a number of years, and we will continue to do so for some time to come. What we are seeing now are that the mills are closing while production remains the same through additional shifts, and better milling process’s.

As I said before, without all the information on TFL’s long term planning by lumber companies, etc; we do not have enough information to actually see what is taking place.

Information from corporations is much like information we receive from politicians just before an election.

Correct me if I am wrong, but does the article above not say this is a “finger-joint” plant that’s shutting down, not a sawmill? And it’s closing because of “…lack of money to service debt” and “…the high cost of trucking wood from Houston to Moricetown.” It’s not profitable, in other words. It can’t make a price for its product that’ll fully cover its costs.

Does this “finger joint” plant cut logs? Or does it utilise low grade lumber and longer trim ends from elsewhere, by cutting out the defects and then finger jointing and end gluing the upgraded shorter pieces back together again into a stud or some other useable product?

If the latter is the case, what has that got to do with the MPB, or export of logs?

Finger-jointing is one of the few forms of ‘value-added’ manufacturing that CAN be carried on on a larger scale. This is because the raw material, the otherwise reject lumber or trimmings, has very little ‘value’ in it to start with, and is typically low cost. But obviously not low enough cost to offset the other costs, including Kyahwood’s continuance in ‘servicing debt’ and ‘trucking’ the wood from where it originates, a sawmill in Houston, to Moricetown.

Palopu:- “If we need to harvest this beetle kill in a set number of years, then why are we shutting down mills. We should be increasing production to ensure that all the wood that is marketable is marketed.”
——————————————-

The short and simple answer to that is because we are governed by a financial system that requires all costs to be recovered in prices. Then it starts to get long and complicated. So let it be sufficient to say a glut of wood will simply lower prices below cost, and there is currently no way by which the producers could stave off financial ruination when that happens.

There is no financial mechanism that would allow for this lumber to be cut now, while the trees are still utilisable, and held off the market as lumber in storage, to be metered out, (like is done in the diamond trade, for instance) over a prolonged period of time “to keep the price up.”

It is doubtful, given the nature of the product and the lumber business itself, that there ever could be.

Previous attempts at restricting the flow of lumber onto the market, (and there’ve been several over the last 75 years, or so, both here and in the States), have always broken down.

So we waste what could be utilised, because, as we should all know, the present rules governing finance are deemed to be unchangeable, as if written in stone by the hand of God.

Hopefully a buyer will come to save this mill and the town of Moricetown. This will have a far bigger impact on Moricetown then the mill closure in Houston have on the town of Houston.

Whatever happened to biofuels/pellet plants saving the economic day?

Look for the Quesnel TSA and read the rationale for the determination of the AAC for the area.

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hts/tsa/tsa26/index.htm

Educate yourself a bit on the information that is pout there and the realities of how much merchantable timber there is.

Learn about the REDUCTION in AAC two years ago after about a decade of increasing the AAC to cut down the dead pine.

You might also want to learn that the recent MPB epidemic was not the first to go through the area. During the 1981 to 1996 years the AAC was adjusted to account for the MPB that hit the area at that time.

The Quesnel TSA on the western plateau is scrub …. if you have not driven through there and driven up some of the forest access roads to where thinning projects are happening you will see the patches of nothing left after planting.

There is a 60 year fall down happening. and the AAC reductions of 2011+ are just the start.

Social Credit or any kind of credit is not going to have one iota of an impact. This is not man-made, this is mother nature made.

Face the facts and figure it out.

For those of you who do not like to read reports, here is a summary of some key information the AAC determination contains.

The AAC for the Quesnel TSA was first established in 1981 at 2 300 000 cubic metres.

In 1996, the AAC was determined at 2,340,000 cubic metres, of which 1,965,000 cubic metres were attributable to conventional sawlogs,

In 2001, during the initial outbreak of the current MPB epidemic, the AAC for the Quesnel TSA was set at 3,248,000 cubic metres to facilitate the salvage of beetle-killed pine and to diminish the extent of future damage

Effective October 1, 2004, the AAC for the Quesnel TSA was increased to 5,280,000 cubic metres, an increase of about 63 percent from the previous AAC. This increase, in response to the rapidly increasing mortality occurring from the expanding MPB epidemic, was to provide sufficient opportunity to salvage beetle-killed timber.

In the base case (for the 2011 AAC determination) the initial harvest of 5.28 million cubic metres per year was maintained for 10 years (to 2014) before declining over four years to a mid-term harvest level of 720,000 cubic metres per year.

In decade six, the harvest level increases to a long-term level of 2.52 million cubic metres per year.
=========================================
Interpretation of the above is that by 2018 the actual harvest level will decline to 720,000 cubic metres per year.

That will hold for about 50 to 60 years when the AAC will climb back to where the TSA started with, 2.52 million cubic metres per year.

THAT is the effect of an epidemic going through a forest of predominately pine. One can spin it any way they want to, but that is the reality that people who live in the middle of prime forestry land somehow do not understand!!

The look at the effect of the average age of trees over the 60 or so year time period is of interest as well.

While primarily dead pine stands are being harvested, the average age stands which are forecast to be harvested is between 120 and 140 years.

Once all of the dead pine stands have either been harvested or have deteriorated to the point where they fall over, the average harvest age increases to 175 years as the harvest is now limited to the remaining older non-pine stands.

During the subsequent 50 years as the harvest transitions from older, non-pine natural stands to younger, managed stands, the average harvest age decreases to less than 70 years.
=====================================

For those who think that the MPB has not affected and will not continue to affect what products will be produced over the next 50 to 60 years, starting right now, and the volume which will be able to be harvested and put through a primary manufacturing process. You simply do not understand forestry.

And, in this part of the country, that is a major problem.

“Whatever happened to biofuels/pellet plants saving the economic day?”

In my opinion pellet plants have a role to play in providing part of the diversity of products. Pellet plants are not expensive to build. I suspect if they run for 10 years, they will have paid back the cost of the capital investment in the plant.

Again, goods are market driven. If there is a market for panels using chips, sawdust, veneer, etc. and those goods manufacturers pay more for the residue they use for feedstock, then pellet plants will slowly close down.

The less wood, the less waste, the fewer pellet plants and board plants.

I think the economics of harvesting dead pine stands that can no longer be used for saw logs will make the products which can still use those logs to expensive. I think some sort of “incentive” will have to be provided by the owner of the dead stands in order to get them removed from the land so that the forest can be regenerated.

I suspect a significant number will ne allowed to do the natural thing – rot on the ground and provide improved soils.

BUT, who in government actually believes that the general public in the areas affected is owned an explanation of what the more detailed plan actually is, if they have one.

Each TSA may be unique and each will have different opportunities for those who can and will continue working in the forest industry.

We deserve better information filtered for jargon and made understandable by average people.

Socredible … you have to get away from economics every now and then. You look terrible with economic blinders on. :-)

In this case look at biological facts for a change and see what effect that has on the generation of feedstock over which we have virtually no control other than softening the impact on our social systems as best as we can.

Gus, I’m not at all disputing what you are saying. But in regards to the discussion here, Palopu asked a question, perhaps one that is now moot, but nevertheless one which I’ve tried to answer. You can go back and read what he asked, if you want. I’ve appended it before my reply. Or don’t. It makes no difference to me whatsoever.

Gus..

An area based sale was introduced to encourage secondary manufacturing like pellet plants to harvest and use the fiber of dead pine stands. Problem is hauling and processing costs are a huge issue for pellet plants and its only feasible to source pellet plants off the stump if the sale is within around 80-100km from the plant. This is why they primarily source from existing sawmills. As well the wood the pellet plants get from the bush is usually dirty and creates problems in the pellet mill.

From working in both the pellet industry and sawmill industry i can tell you that the pine beetle was a blessing in disguise as the cheap stumpage on this wood kept both sawmills and pellet mills going through the crash. Now the quality of the wood changed but that was offset by running more volume, selling more chips and opening up lower a quality lumber to china. If the beetle wasn’t here and the sub prime crash didn’t happen the same amount of timber possibly more would have been harvested which still throws us in the fiber supply issue we are facing today.

I think peoples memories are short because this has happened before with the Bowron spruce epidemic..