Prince George, B.C. – Even before the change in the weather and the accumulation of fresh snow this week, the B.C. River Forecast Centre is reporting an improvement in the snowpack from January to early February in northern BC.

January weather was dominated by high pressure systems which led to dry conditions for most of the month.  January precipitation was well below average across the province. Particularly dry regions, with January precipitation amounts in the 30-60% of normal range, included the South Coast, Vancouver Island, North Coast, South Interior, and Central Interior. For most of the south half of the province, precipitation has been below normal since October.

Snow basin indices range from a low of 28% of normal on Vancouver Island, to a high of 174% in the Liard.  The Upper Fraser basin registered 144% of normal while the Nechako was at 80% as of the beginning of this month.  As well, several surveys in the Liard and Upper Fraser have record, or near record values for the February 1st survey period.  The snow basin index for the Upper Fraser is similar to the record conditions observed in 2012.

By early February, generally about two-thirds of the annual BC snowpack has accumulated. Conditions in the Upper Fraser and Liard indicate the potential for increased seasonal flood risk.  Seasonal volume runoff forecasts have higher than normal runoff forecasted in the Upper Fraser and Middle Fraser basins.

Seasonal forecasts from Environment Canada indicate most of the province, except for south-west regions, has an increased likelihood of cooler than average conditions for the period February to April 2014. Forecasts for seasonal precipitation do not indicate an increased likelihood for any particular trend.