Don’t Write off Alberta PC Government Quite Yet Says UNBC Prof
Prince George, B.C. – Despite a series of polls suggesting otherwise (click here), the Chair of the Political Science Department at UNBC isn’t writing off the Progressive Conservative government in Alberta quite yet.
Dr. Boris DeWiel, a native Albertan who earned his undergraduate and graduate degrees at the University of Calgary, says he wouldn’t be surprised if Alberta voters get cold feet and stick to the devil they know in Tuesday’s provincial election.
“I would not be surprised if a lot of people in Alberta, when they get in that polling booth, they sort of revert to their old habits,” he says. “I think it will be hard for a lot of voters to vote NDP at the end of the day and to vote for the new, untested Wildrose Party.”
While giving the NDP under new leader Rachel Notley credit for its impressive showing so far in the campaign, DeWiel says one of the party’s big challenges is building support outside of its Edmonton power base.
“One of the problems with the NDP is that their vote is concentrated mostly in the City of Edmonton and so they can have high poll numbers but if most of your supporters are in one area, it limits the number of seats you can get.”
But is he surprised the opposition parties seem to have the PC government on the ropes?
“Well on one hand it’s a surprise because they’ve been in power for so long but almost correspondingly, it’s not a surprise because they’ve been in power for so long (1971),” says DeWiel. “Governments are expected to come to an end, it’s healthy for governments to come to an end and have a change of government. So maybe people are just deciding it’s time.”
He also says its worth remembering the Wildrose Party led all opinion polls heading into the last provincial election in 2012.
“The polls were wrong, the pollsters said their numbers were right until just a few days before the vote and there was a real shift on the ground and a lot of voters changed their minds.”
So is DeWiel making any predictions this time around?
“I think the safest prediction would be a PC minority with an NDP opposition.”
But if the PC government does go down to defeat, will there be any implications for B.C.?
“I don’t think so. Maybe indirectly it may be that if the BC Liberals have created any lines of communication with the Alberta PCs those might have to be re-made,” he says. “But I think the Liberals in B.C. will find a way to work with whoever is in power in Alberta because they have to.”
Comments
Saw the following on Reddit Alberta:
Calgary Herald anonymous editorial endorses Tories… and the comment section goes wild
http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-our-choice-prentice-deserves-another-mandate
Alberta, throw PC bums out
http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/05/01/alberta-throw-pc-bums-out?token=a504a5f476ee8f2725946abd2f20998c
My take is that the Alberta landowners are the bell weather of Alberta politics and they have always been PC with a split last election between the PC and Wildrose. A big turning point was the defection of the wild rose leader for purely personal gain and then the susiquent inept handling of landowner issues by the government in recent months, which helped to turn the tide against th PC’s nearly everywhere outside of Calgary.
Not many trust the Wildrose after their betrayal… And this is an opening the NDP has stepped into. I think on the strength of Edmonton and the voice of the land owners rights, the NDP will be given a chance to govern and likely with a majority at this point.
I admire your optimism eagle . Alberta the quintessential useful idiot . The corpretocracy will bring the electorate to heal with fear .
heel, duh.
I cannot imagine why anyone would vote PC in Alberta…they have royally screwed up that province.
When has the NDP anywhere ever been for “land owner’s rights”?
Alberta voters should write off the PC’s much as the PC’s have written off as much as $13 Billion in royalties since 2009.
http***thetyee.ca*News*2015*05*02*Royalty-Miscalculation-Cost-Alberta-Billions*
Considering that the PC’s have Governed Alberta for the past 50 years does anyone seriously believe that they would elect and NDP Government.???
NDP is a dirty word in Alberta, always has been, always will be.
I don’t expect any changes in Alberta. Anyone with half a brain and a butt would know that the best man for the job is Prentice.
That is how the NDP usually gets in , when there is a downturn in the economy they are like a preying mantis, or the snake that lures in Mowgli
don’t expect any changes in Alberta. Anyone with half a brain and a butt would know that the best man for the job is Prentice.
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I guess you have all the brains Pal. Your love for the PC tells us how much brains you have that’s the other side of the coin..
Cheers
Lets hear your prediction Retired 02. Care to elucidate, or will you wait until after the election to make your prediction.
That’s a good question, but a moot point at this time Socred.
One just has to consider the foreign capitalist friendly conservative record in Alberta the last four decades in regards to land owner rights that puts them in this predicament.
Its the conservative record that counts at this time, and not what the ndp has to offer, so long as they run on a centrist mandate. Albertans are righteous about being manipulated and their vote abused for so long… things like flood relief contingent on their vote, and negative campaigning only reinforce the need for change.
Consider this one point… Alberta is knee deep into a recession that could border on a depression. If Iran gets the P-5 deal, and lets face it 4 of the P-5 are already a green light for their own self interests, so how does the Alberta high cost product compete on the world stage with $20 a barrel oil. So expect Alberta oil companies to be going bankrupt, as has already happened.
Thanks to the conservatives, the land owner rights have been stripped by a conservative appointed surface rights board, and the landowners now sit at the back of the pack when it comes to bankruptcy of companies with oil assets on their property. So now these landowners assume the responsibility for clean up, and decommissioning if it comes to that, for these discarded liabilities of global capitalists. Prentice says that could change after the election if land owners vote conservative, but considering past actions, who could really believe that. With a $6 billion dollar deficit, who believes the government would fund these liabilities.
So its interesting you have everyone not sure about a month old leadership of the wildrose, and then an inept conservative government that fiscally fell on its face, and the natives have aligned with the land owners behind the ndp and Edmonton voters… and it will even be a full moon to boot when they vote. Who knows what can happen?
Alberta is still conservative country, but I doubt that’s what they vote for this time around. Sometimes principals matter more than partisanship.
When Ezra Levant comes out and states that he would prefer the NDP to the PC’s – well that is the end times for Jim Prentices’ political hopes.
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