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October 28, 2017 3:13 am

Study Questions Victoria’s Promise of 100,000 LNG Jobs

Tuesday, July 28, 2015 @ 12:36 PM

Prince George, B.C. – A new study released today by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives questions the BC government’s promise of 100,000 liquefied natural gas (LNG) jobs.

“The 100,000 number is a manufactured statistic that the government contracted out in the lead up to the 2013 election,” says senior economist and study author Marc Lee. “It exaggerates every possible point to make a large a number as possible.”

He adds the promise includes a “whole bunch of assumptions that are not fully justified and that magnify the numbers.”

In his study, Lee says he looked at the companies own estimates (which had to be filed for the BC environmental assessment process).

“Petronas, which has been in the news for its big deal with the BC government, they argue at the peak of their construction, a three year construction period, they will have about 3,500 construction jobs and once the facility is built, between 200 and 300 long-term permanent jobs.”

He notes “to be fair,” that could lead to some gains “upstream” through fracking in the northeast of the province resulting in “a couple thousand more jobs but beyond that to get to 100,000 jobs you have to use a lot of smoke, and a lot of mirrors.”

Lee also says the 100,000 jobs was based on 5 LNG plants being built, something he highly doubts will ever happen.

“If you talk to industry analysts, the number generally ranges between zero and two. In the current economic climate we’ll be lucky to get one of these off the ground.”

You can access Lee’s study by clicking here.


Does that surprise anybody?

Of course the 100,000 was a lie.. they arent building new york city… most of the construction will be done elsewhere with skids being delivered that need to be stuck together…Maybe there will be 28 plants being built at the same time.. thats how Clark got her numbers…LOL

I guessed at 150 full time and was a bit off… but its no where near the numbers Clark said we would see… Then take into account the lack of tradesmen needed and just watch the waves of TFW show up to take the jobs… ( who wants to venture a guess part of the agreement is for Petronas to supply a lot of the workers?)

I was always under the impression that those estimated 100k LNG jobs are all the jobs (temporary construction ones mostly) over a ten year period. A better estimate would have been total (temporary and permanent) man years! It is the usual political spin which all parties are addicted to!

Just look at the Cariboo Connector! The pre-election hype was that the whole distance between here and CC would be four laned! Nobody mentioned that it was a project spread over the next fifty years! Spreading it out over 50 years probably will take longer than if it had been done as part of the regular annual highway improvement program!

Everything emanating from any politician from any of the ideologies must be taken with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism when promises are made simply to get elected!

PrinceGeorge, re your statement:

“Everything emanating from any politician from any of the ideologies must be taken with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism when promises are made simply to get elected!”

Truer words have never been posted on this site!

Congratulations, you win this months “best post” award!

Everything emanating from any politician from any of the ideologies must be taken with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism when promises are made simply to get elected

thats the entire liberal way of lies..

PrinceGeorge; your statement:

“Everything emanating from any politician from any of the ideologies must be taken with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism when promises are made simply to get elected!”

Does nothing to make our politicians accountable! If they are going to blatantly LIE to us, make them accountable and call them out on their promises and lies! I am willing to bet high school Christy lied about LNG revenue wiping out our provincial debt as well.

The construction and manufacturing may be, 50,000 person years. for about 6-8 billion dollars. In reality, it will depend on what gets made in BC. or it all shows up in containers out of China.

Well, no one claimed they would be built in this century. I think when you extrapolate the numbers to 2321 you do get 100,000 jobs.

A bit off the subject but isn’t it wonderful the libs are just dying to give the gas away to Petronas.
Ask the taxpayers west of PG who are supplied by the PNG natural gas line what is is like to be gouged. The all in cost for NG, transportation, carbon tax, etc, is near $20.00 a gigajoule. You can just bet Petronas isn’t paying 1/10 of $20.00 per gigajoule but then again Christy’s slogan is gouge the families of BC first.

Resident, they do it, how.,… Volume

Marc Lee… the “American Sniper”?

the jobs may be there but they will not be BC workers jobs….

SS:”If they are going to blatantly LIE to us, make them accountable and call them out on their promises and lies!”

What exactly do you mean by saying “make them accountable and call them out on their promises and lies”?

Jail terms, fines, public shaming and some public lashes for good measure? You know as well as I do that they know that they are practically untouchable until the next election! All they need is two consecutive terms and they are set for life with indexed life time pensions at retirement age and offers of lucrative jobs as consultants and directors of corporations and such! Many and up in the Senate or as ambassadors or other inside government jobs!

So, what would your accountability and call out effort look like?

Another observation: Yes, most of the plant equipment will arrive ready for installation from Asia, together with managers and crews to operate it. After all, as the owners they call the shots!

The Canadian Center for Policy alternatives is a completely biased left wing think tank. But it fits the left posters here. These are the same people who complain at the top of their lungs about the Fraser Institute’s annual school rankings as crap from a right wing think tank. Hypocrites.

So Busty Clark said to her masses, follow my trail of bull to the promise land , and they did.

Agree with you on that one dow7501. A very rare occasion indeed!!

Going back to the quote: “Everything emanating from any politician from any of the ideologies must be taken with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism when promises are made simply to get elected!”

Good quote, but has not gone far enough. It can be applied to many other organizations. In this case it needs to be applied to think tanks.

CCPA is known as a “left leaning” think tank. We also have four other think tanks in Canada: Fraser Institute, Montreal Economic Institute, C.D. Howe Institute, and Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Most have likely heard of the Fraser Institute. It is known as a “right leaning” think tank.

The simplest approach I find is to find a country similar to Canada as far as social system, practices, economy, environmental concern, etc. that is a step ahead of us and has built LNG plants and all the infrastructure and services that go with such projects separating the construction from the ongoing service and maintenance jobs required.

Australia has 5 plants under construction, the USA has 4, Malaysia has 2, Indonesia, Russia and Columbia each have one. The one under construction in Iran has been suspended.
Canada is listed as having 4 planned of 24 total world-wide. Two of those have been cancelled and three have been suspended.
Then there is a category called Proposed/under study. There are 28 of which 7 are Canadian.
To date there is only one Canadian LNG plant listed as being on-stream, Canaport LNG terminal.
There are 4 in Australia – Darwin, Northwest Shelf, Pluto, Queensland Curtis.
Data source is globallnginfo.com


Australia has four operating LNG developments and six more under construction. Other projects are also being considered.

Existing projects
•The North West Shelf Venture began shipping cargoes in 1989. The project has since grown to include five production units (or trains). It now produces up to 16.3 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG.
•Darwin LNG began production in 2006. This one-train project produces up to 3.5mtpa.
•Pluto started production in April 2012. It has one 4.3mtpa production train.
•Queensland Curtis LNG began production in December 2014. It has one producing LNG train and a second train due to start production in 2015. Each train has a capacity of 4.25mtpa.

In total, Australia has more than $180 billion worth of LNG projects under construction.

In 2013-14, Australia shipped 24 million tonnes of LNG cargoes, earning $16.4 billion in export revenue.

Australia is currently the world’s fourth-largest LNG exporter. The Australian petroleum industry is aiming to make this country the world’s largest LNG exporter by 2020.

We can always get the USA to build pipeline from the gas fields so that they can build the plants, ports and other infrastructure and ship it to the rest of the world. That is what we do with oil.

The origin of the 100,000 jobs attributed to LNG projects was first reported in July 2013 by CBC.

It was the “B.C. Natural Gas Workforce Strategy Committee” which estimated 60,000 workers will be needed to build LNG plants and pipelines starting in 2016, and 75,000 workers will be needed to keep them running after that.

The tyee wrote a piece in January of this year which quotes different sources, including KPMG and Grant Thornton who looked at construction, operating, direct and induced jobs as is the norm for planning large projects.

The conclusion reached by the Tyee was that the 100,000 (combined development and operating + induced) was a talking point during the election. More reasonable projections are 70% of that. All of that is based on 3 plants being in place by 2020 and an additional 2 by 2022.

The CCPA report comes half a year after the Tyee’s article.

Still significant numbers.

From Oregon LNG, this plant is scheduled to begin construction this year.

“The $6 billion project will include an LNG export terminal located in Warrenton Oregon, at the mouth of the Columbia River and a connector pipeline to bring largely Canadian natural gas from an existing pipeline in Washington State”

Looks like it’s in the works gopg2015.

Anyone who works in construction knew crusty numbers where bull$hit.. But as you can see above there are still ,it’s who drink her koolaid even though the facts show completely different numbers.. Drink up minions.

Well gopg2015.. As there will not be 3 plants built and running by 2020 those numbers mean nothing..

Big difference between 100,000 jobs the government states the LNG projects will bring even if it is a quote for a total of five (5) natural gas plants. Using the research institutes numbers for one natural gas facility we get the following:

3,500 construction jobs x 5 = 17,500 temporary construction jobs. Between 200 and 300 long-term permanent jobs. Average 250 jobs x 5 = 1,250 long term permanent jobs. Does not come close 100,000 jobs to me.

IMO High School Christy is full of it, I am more inclined to believe the Research Facility than these Liebreals.

www. theprovince.com/cabinet+minister+shrugs+research+report+skeptical+jobs+claim/11249475/story.html

PrinceGeorge asks; “So, what would your accountability and call out effort look like?” Answer: Resignations would be the honorable thing for them to do here, but what do they know of honor?

As for the Fraser Institute; any organization that receives funding and support from the Texas USA Big Oil Koch Brothers, should be considered a joke!

“Anyone who works in construction knew crusty numbers where bull$hit.. ”

You obviously know very little about constructing such huge plants. The same happened in PG in the 60s when the paper mills were constructed. Those who worked on the aluminum plant and associated Kemano project could also tell you how many people were needed and how many of them came to Canada primarily from Europe in those days and how many stayed and became citizens, now retired.

There is nothing new about this. This is not building the Four Points Sheraton with house builders over a 3 year period or the Sandman for that matter.

Nor are the investors like the neophytes who have big plans for building a simple Delta hotel downtown.

Consider the source for the 100,000 jobs Ie; The Liberal Government and Christy Clark. I rest my case.

Same BS applies to Site C and the so called **need for power**.

Q. How can you tell when a politician is lying? A. When her lips are moving.
Q. What is the golden rule for politicians? A. He who has the gold makes the rules.

I know these are old but they are timeless as well.


This is the effect on Port Edward, the community which will get the plant for which the deal is supposedly being signed. I have not read any reports yet that it has been.

For Port Edward, which has an annual municipal budget of $2.2million, it means a commitment by the company to provide $150million to the district over 25 years. That works out to $6million/year.

Imagine what PG could do with $450million (3x its annual operating budget) per year over 25 years. No taxes for the population and $300million/year left over.

SS:”Answer: Resignations would be the honorable thing for them to do here, but what do they know of honor?”

I am delighted! So you agree by making the above quoted statement that they are all dishonourable characters! What is wrong with us that in spite of their demonstrated obvious lack of morals, conscience and disrespect for honour we keep helping them to get elected and re-elected as far back as anyone can remember?

In my own case I have not ever voted with any real conviction for any candidate or any party! I go and vote only to replace one scoundrel with another one who is hopefully less of a scoundrel than the first one! Or one dysfunctional party with one who is less dysfunctional!

I suppose many other people do that as well. When they get tired of this useless exercise they simply stay away on election day and watch a base ball game on the telly!

Gopg2015. I surely do know lots about the way plants are constructed in 2015., comparing it to the 60s is hilarious.. Shows your mentality.. These today’s as much work as possible is done on skids..in factories.. Way cheaper .. Then all you need is foundation work etc to spit these skids..then bout them together..

For the new smelter in kitimat it was only 1500 contractors there mainly bolting skids together.. And that’s in this century dude.. Comparing construction now to the 60s is just plain stupid..

I was out at Port Edward a few weeks back, and all that I seen employed (self employed) so far are scrap metal thieves living like hobo’s and salvaging the old Skeena pulp mill. I drove my truck right out onto their old loading pier and its like the ghost town show that follows how nature reclaims the old land. An industrial wasteland shuttered and yet to be cleaned up for sale. When I found the security guy he said the city of Prince Rupert owns the land and they plan to begin clearing it sometime in the next year.

As for the 100,000 it is smoke and mirrors, but also at the same time I have no doubt it is legitimate as well.

3500 construction jobs over the life of the construction phase, plus 250 operating jobs over the life of the project at 25-years is another 6250, plus when one considers the suppliers that will be employed and its easily one supplier employed for every operating job and construction job, so one could say 20,000 job years per plant for a total of a 100,000 job years from 5 plants total… but it would be disingenuous to imply that it would produce anywhere near 100,000 perpetual full time jobs.

With the added employment cash flow through the community its probably more like 1000 perpetual jobs as a result of the circulation of new income in the local economy.

If one has ever been to Rupert when a cruise ship is in dock; and a half dozen large cargo carriers are out in the harbor; and the salmon are in run… then its pretty easy to see how tourism, the nightlife, and accommodations could provide much more long term sustainable jobs than LNG ever will.

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