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October 28, 2017 12:26 am

Never Mind the Groundhog

Tuesday, February 2, 2016 @ 3:58 AM

Prince George, B.C. – No matter what  any one of the numerous weather predicting groundhogs may have to say today,  Environment Canada  is  predicting the balance of the winter  will be mild.

Environment Canada Meteorologist Matt MacDonald says while the  mild weather brought on  by a Pineapple Express last week  is  over.  The  warm air that was coming our way courtesy the Pineapple express  has shifted.

“The air mass that is  coming our way  is coming in from the west, or even a little bit of north westerly,  the further the circulation tweaks up  towards the northwest, well then we are getting a little bit more Siberian air  as  opposed to  Hawaiian air.”

Although there were some very warm temps last week,  hitting 7.1 degrees on Thursday,  that  was shy of  the  8.9 record  for  January 28th  which was  set in 1976.

As for predictions on the next three months for Prince George,  MacDonald  says El Nino remains strong, and that should mean warmer than normal temperatures  “The fact it is the strongest El Nino on record with records going back to 1950,  I think November and December  people were wondering where is El Nino?  But that was actually fairly typical, the effects of  El Nino  usually only  show their face come mid January  and that’s exactly what we saw this year, it was right on time.”

He says despite  the slight  dip in temperatures over this week,  which will see P.G. back below seasonal  normal temps,  warmer than normal  conditions are  expected to return.

“What  we can say with the most confidence is that there is a high probability of warmer than normal  conditions, so a  mild rest of winter” but MacDonald  isn’t so confident on predicting what the  future holds in the way of precipitation.  “I think any meteorologist worth their weight  will be the first to  admit  that forecasting precipitation over a week  is  damn near impossible”.  But previous strong El Nino  conditions have  produced  wetter than normal  conditions.  He says  with a strong El Nino  its likely that precipitation will come in the  form of rain.

Comments

god bless el nino

Given the track record for long range forecasting by meteorologists, I am thinking the little rodent has some credibility! At least if the grounghog is wrong and we get annoyed by it’s mistaken forecast…. we could eat it. Not much we can do about bad meteorologists.

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