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The Written Word - September 7th

By Rafe Mair

Sunday, September 07, 2008 03:16 AM

By the time you read this we may already be in a federal election, an election that Prime Minister Harper can’t lose.
The reason is simple and I’m astonished that the media hasn’t picked up on it.
Mr. Harper wins if he heads another minority government for three reasons.
 
-         the public would heavily punish a party that went to the polls without giving the minority government a chance.
-         The opposition would be, as now, as opposed to each other as much as they are opposed to the Tories
-         Most importantly, no party could finance another election for at least two years.
 
When assessing when to go to the people the Prime Minister knows that there rarely is a good time. Looking back I can only think of two slam dunks – Diefenbaker in 1958 and Trudeau ten years later. Even when a party was favoured the result would invariably be supported by the central region with the rest hating its guts.
 
I’m no Tory.
I voted Green last time and will do it again on the proposition that a vote for the Greens gives them a bonus of $1.65 which is a better deal than I could get from any other party.
Seriously, though, I draw your attention to Mair’s Axiom II which says, altogether now, “you don’t have to be a 10 in politics – you can be a 3 if everyone else is a 2.
Prime Minister Harper is a 3 in a sea of 2s.
 
There will, then, be a federal election this Fall and Prime Minister Harper will remain PM the only question being two or four years

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Comments

What makes Harper a 3? I do agree with you that the rest are at best two's. The best thing the Liberals ever did was nominate Dion as their leader.
If you live in Prince George and read the news, its hard to give Harper even a 3. The softwood lumber deal with the States is a prime example of his arrogance, overweaning pride and ultimately stupidity. In his eagerness to show how quickly he could resolve a trade dispute that had gone on for years under the Liberals, he made a quick call to George Bush and strong-armed the major forest companies. He single-handedly dispatched a looming victory in the courts to a defeat. As a result, our forest industry which has for years struggled to be globally competitive, has been hobbled by an export tax that has crippled our local mills. This at a time when the mills should be booming with an overabundance of beetle wood. To boot, Harper negotiated away 2 Billion dollars of Canadian money to the US forest interest for the privilege of completing this awful deal.
This is not the only sector Harper has crippled. If you recall the Income Trust debacle, where overnight the Conservatives wiped out Billions of equity value in the of shareholders. Furthermore a prime means of financing junior oil and gas companies has been wiped out. The oil and gas industry has been severely impacted, with exploration declining since 2005.
Want another example? Listeriosis. A union member of federal meat inspectors w tried whistle blowing this spring on the Conservatives plan to let companies self inspect. For his troubles he was fired and faces prosecution. 13 (and counting) dead Canadians later, Harper announces an inquiry after the election.
In the meantime, Harper has been putting together a coaltion of separatists in Quebec, and stands a good chance of getting his majority with the help of ex BQ supporters.
I just hope Canadians wake up in time to vote strategically in ridings to avoid this. Think carefully before you cast that Green vote- is it Harper you really want in power?

If you live in Prince George and read the news, its hard to give Harper even a 3. The softwood lumber deal with the States is a prime example of his arrogance, overweaning pride and ultimately stupidity. In his eagerness to show how quickly he could resolve a trade dispute that had gone on for years under the Liberals, he made a quick call to George Bush and strong-armed the major forest companies. He single-handedly dispatched a looming victory in the courts to a defeat. As a result, our forest industry which has for years struggled to be globally competitive, has been hobbled by an export tax that has crippled our local mills. This at a time when the mills should be booming with an overabundance of beetle wood. To boot, Harper negotiated away 2 Billion dollars of Canadian money to the US forest interest for the privilege of completing this awful deal.
This is not the only sector Harper has crippled. If you recall the Income Trust debacle, where overnight the Conservatives wiped out Billions of equity value in the of shareholders. Furthermore a prime means of financing junior oil and gas companies has been wiped out. The oil and gas industry has been severely impacted, with exploration declining since 2005.
Want another example? Listeriosis. A union member of federal meat inspectors w tried whistle blowing this spring on the Conservatives plan to let companies self inspect. For his troubles he was fired and faces prosecution. 13 (and counting) dead Canadians later, Harper announces an inquiry after the election.
In the meantime, Harper has been putting together a coaltion of separatists in Quebec, and stands a good chance of getting his majority with the help of ex BQ supporters.
I just hope Canadians wake up in time to vote strategically in ridings to avoid this. Think carefully before you cast that Green vote- is it Harper you really want in power?

sorry, hit the refresh button by mistake!
Herbster, right on! Well, I guess we have to wait for someone with the bawlls of Trudeau or Chretien to stand up for Canada - and it won't be a Conservative when someone finally does!
Herbster your comments show you have no idea what's going on in the forest industry. I guess you haven't noticed but there's a housing crisis affecting our largest customer. Instead you want to blame our problems on an export tax. I don't know if you've forgotten but under the liberals we also paid an export tax.

As for the income trust, I guess you'd be happier if Canada lost out on all that tax revenue to pay for services? I can't believe you are actually claiming that Harper crippled the oil and gas industry.

Are you really blaming Harper for the Listeriosis outbreak? If you haven't noticed, Harper hasn't changed anything yet, this happened under the old system that the Liberals want to protect.

It would be nice for once if people would argue on actual facts instead of things they make up.
diplomat you have to be joking if you think Chretien stood up for Canada. He was one of the most arrogant power hungry freaks this country has ever seen. Good riddance.
If Harper was in office in 2001 we would be losing troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, right now! Give Chretien his due, he kept us out of Iraq.
As far as the forest industry goes, I work in it and evidently know far more than you. Our local mills used to make money at anywhere between $235 and $250 mbf. With the export tax thrown in that is raised to between $270 and $287. You do the math.
With the income trust debacle, Harper broke his word again (anybody see a pattern here?) and decreed willy nilly that all had to go. Finding some sensible middle ground is not his style.
While Harper did not physically contaminate Maple Leafs machines, decimating federal inspectors and assigning the survivors to paperwork, and worst of all going after the whistle blower who tried to tell the public,is just as bad (in my opinion) as crapping in the coldcuts. How do you like them apples?
Geeze Herbster, it's funny how forest companies were making money until the bottom dropped out of the U.S. housing market. But of course it must be Harpers fault for signing that darned agreement. OH bad Harper. He is probably responsible for the mortgage crisis in the U.S. as well. Now Herbster, tell me what the Liberals did for the forest industry?
While Harper may not be responsible for the mortgage crisis, he follows the same ideology as those that are responsible. Harper would prefer a U.S. style economy. Remember his comment "You won't recognize Canada when I'm done with it". That's because he would like us to be the U.S. If he gets a majority, prepare yourself for an EXTREME economic makeover. Tax cuts for the rich, wholesale sell-off of Canada's assets, and bibles and bullets.
Remember Mulroney??????