The Written Word - September 7th
By Rafe Mair
Sunday, September 07, 2008 03:16 AM
By the time you read this we may already be in a federal election, an election that Prime Minister Harper can’t lose. 

The reason is simple and I’m astonished that the media hasn’t picked up on it.
Mr. Harper wins if he heads another minority government for three reasons.
- the public would heavily punish a party that went to the polls without giving the minority government a chance.
- The opposition would be, as now, as opposed to each other as much as they are opposed to the Tories
- Most importantly, no party could finance another election for at least two years.
When assessing when to go to the people the Prime Minister knows that there rarely is a good time. Looking back I can only think of two slam dunks – Diefenbaker in 1958 and Trudeau ten years later. Even when a party was favoured the result would invariably be supported by the central region with the rest hating its guts.
I’m no Tory.
I voted Green last time and will do it again on the proposition that a vote for the Greens gives them a bonus of $1.65 which is a better deal than I could get from any other party.
Seriously, though, I draw your attention to Mair’s Axiom II which says, altogether now, “you don’t have to be a 10 in politics – you can be a 3 if everyone else is a 2.
Prime Minister Harper is a 3 in a sea of 2s.
There will, then, be a federal election this Fall and Prime Minister Harper will remain PM the only question being two or four years
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