So in this time of recession, Mr Bell who has had his Bell rung by Campbell goes off on a holiday to China while more and more mill workers are being layed off. Don't give me that crap that we will be getting rich with Chinas trade, I've heard that before form the Lieables.

Sure hope he enjoyed his trip while others are having trouble buying groceries and paying taxes.

The government deserves criticism at times, but not for this. Give it a rest. Like it or not, China is a big trading partner.

You go acrider. Lets all just sit on our buts and try to find union jobs! Why would anyone actually try to sell the product? Thats not linked to jobs is it?

It's an announcement, nothing more, although on the surface it does have a good news ring to it....

Heard lots in the past about Chinese being a huge market for lumber, just never seen anything come of it....

Show me the money.... then I will believe, but let's hope so as the US doesn't seem to be getting any better....

Why would they want our lumber when they can just buy our logs and mill it there for a fraction of the cost?

"Why would they want our lumber when they can just buy our logs and mill it there for a fraction of the cost"

If I were a betting man, I'd suggest that it's nothing more than a strategic "inroads" move on their part. I'd also bet that over the next decade or so, they will become even more proactive in working with our large forestry companies on "joint venture" type projects that could see mills built in China, technology sharing, etc. Heck, this may be the only way that some of these companies can make money if the US economy continues going like it is. As their expertise and know how develops, watch as they negotiate access to large volumes of raw timber and then watch them stomp the BC forestry industry into obscurity. It will take decades, but I can see it occuring.

Our biggest problem is that we think we are the only area in the world that has logs and we also think we are the only people in the world who can make 2x4's. If a country like China can tap into the ridiculous stands of wood spread over northern Asia and northeastern Europe, our current industry is done.

If I were Pat Bell, I'd be more concerned about what we are doing to change our industry so that we aren't as susceptible to such future risks . . .

Pat Bell wasn't talking only about selling lumber. The article concludes with this line:


The mission isn’t entirely about lumber sales. Minister Bell has meetings planned in Beijing to talk about other opportunities, such as the Worthington MacKenzie mill and the Eurocan Mill in Kitimat.

Bell is talking about "opportunities" ... and I'm not comfortable with more foreign ownership of vital B.C. industries.


China will have to work overtime to beat the current premier in destroying the sacred BC forests. Gordo described his latest "vision" in his keynote speech to the Independent Power Producers: he thinks it's a good idea if these corporations cut down what's left of BC forests, and use them for firewood to produce electricity which he will force BC Hydro to buy.

Gordo calls this "GREEN ENERGY".

NMG is absolutely correct in thinking that we should be changing our own industries in ways that leave us less susceptible to these future risks.

Lets just take a little time here and catch our breath. We should remember that this is an announcement made by a politician, and therefore should be suspect. Lets look at some facts:

Fact; Canadian Forest Products and other Canadian lumber mills have been exporting lumber to China for years.

Fact; Canadian Forest Products has a sales office in Shanghai, and has had for years.

Fact; Canada's biggest customer for lumber products is the USA who take approx 80% of what we produce. Up until this year our second biggest customer was Japan. China has surpassed Japan in volume this year. However most of what China buys is subprime or cull lumber, while Japan and the USA buy prime. (Huge price difference)

Although Mr Bell makes reference to the cost of shipping lumber to China as opposed to the cost of shipping it to Chicago, he fails (Im sure on purpose) to make any reference to the Price paid for lumber in the USA as opposed to the price paid for lumber in China.

The Chinese are noted for buying huge quantities of bulk products in a low market and storing them, and then riding it out when the price rises. No doubt they would do the same for lumber. This is an old ploy of theirs when it comes to Pulp and Paper.

Of all the lumber produced in Canada, USA, Europe, Russia, China, etc; why would we think that we would get the lions share from the Prince George Area???

The same news release we got to-day was reported in Kelowna in July, and it was also reported at that time that Bell was going to go to China in Nov. on a trade mission. So in essence this is old news.

BC/Canadian Lumber 2x4's are presently selling for $207.00 a thousand board feet. This is a rotten price and mills cannot make any money. In order to get the 15% export tax on lumber to the US removed the Price has to rise over $300.00 American, this is not likely to happen soon. The US/Japanese market is our bread and butter, and unless the market and prices rise we are in serious trouble.

With all the options available to the Chinese and with the over supply of lumber on the world market, it is highly unlikely that China will pay anymore for lumber than the Americans, and Japanese are presently paying.

So its not enough that the Chinese buy our lumber, they have to buy it at a price that makes it worthwhile for us to produce it. If not then we may as well leave the trees standing in the bush.

Canfor and other Canadian mills have huge contracts with their customers in North America and have to protect the supply to these customers. They made a bundle when the prices were over $400.00 per thousand, and they will now have to take a beating on the lower price. One of Canfors major customers in North America is **Home Depot** and they have to look after them.

So the lumber problem is not one of supply and demand, it is a problem of over supply and no demand. Selling lumber to China may help to offset some costs, however at the present depressed prices I suspect that not a lot will happen.

Pat Bell is doing very strategic work that has the potential to pay big divedends for B.C. as a whole and Northern B.C. in particular in the very near future.

To be either cynical or negative about expanding lumber markets with the Chinese at this point means that you fail to understand the current global marketplace and you do not percieve the necessary critical connections that a B.C.Forest Minister should be making. The chinese want to relate to key goverment officials, for that is the way their society works.

I beleive Pat Bell is one of the best things to happen to the B.C. Forest Ministry Portfolio for some time.
In B.C.it can no longer be the lumber and pulp business as usual. Pat bell understands that, for we desperately need new markets around the globe.

Northern Boy. Look at the mills the Canfor and West Fraser own in BC and Alberta. Plus the mills they own in Eastern Canada, and the Southern USA.

These companies can and do market and sell their lumber all over the world and have been doing so since the late 1940's.

Pat Bell has absolutely no influence in how, where, when, or why these companies sell their lumber. These companies have a major customer base all over the world and top rated sales,marketing, and distribution, systems to move their product. They certainly dont need Pat Bell to sell their lumber for them.

These companies are quite capable of looking after themselves.

China has been trading with Countries all over the world for years. To suggest that somehow they need to communicate with Pat Bell to buy some lumber is ludicrous.

China has been buying our Wheat, Coal, Potash, Sulphur, Copper Concentrates, Logs, etc; for years. How did they manage this without Pat Bell????

As former Min. of Agriculture - Pat had alot of trouble selling hamburgers to China - now in another portfolio - he can sell lumber - get real everyone - he is only adding to his air miles so future unpaid trips to "sunny locations!".

He speaks like a true politician, tells you what you want to hear. Ya it all looks good on paper, but until we hear about some people going back to work, it is all about just someone patting himself on the back. Believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see.

$800,000 to build a model house - good thing they are not building a real house. That would really show the Chinese how cheap wood is to use!

China is the wrong trading partner. Every board that is sent over there leaves someone without a job. No one here wants chinese item any more because it's all crap. It amazes me how the Chinese are allowed to ship us clones of everything under the sun and we, ourselves are not allowed to manufacture it because of patent laws. It stinks! We should really be making our country work for US and not them. If we suffer economically for a while, it would be woth it to 'SAY NO TO CHINA'

Well done Pat Bell!

The Chinese have incrdible respect for visits by high ranking government officials. many of the previous trips by loac delegations have simply been "door openers', but this latest trip should "seal the deal"!

The business metality of the Chinese is quite different to the western culture. In Canada, you become a business partner with someone first, and then out of the partnership, there is a potential friendship, In China it is the opposite. In China you develop the friendship first, and then in turn this friendship creates the business opportunities.

Many of these earlier delegations by City Hall and by IPG were designed to develop the initial friendships, that are now creating the business opportunities for the Minister of Forests.

Like it or not ..... Chinese markets represent the future propertity of what is left of our forestry industry.

it's official! I just checked my dictionary. Supertech = rubbish!

I like my chinese stuff! Princess rules! So, all you folks out there griping and belittling...you are saying that a wood based building code in shanghai is worth nothing to the forest industry?

This trip is all about selling off BC forests through our corporations to Chinese Communist State owned investment funds. Evil funds that prevert the markets through government trickery like currency manipulations... and Pat Bell wants to reward this type of market killing trade practices with a gift of our pulp mills in Mackenzie and Kitimat.

The bottom line is they is not a trade mission, but rather a treason mission to sell out the Canadian economic sovereignty to the whims of communist central planning. Mr Bell sells the mission as an opening to new markets and rubs all buy it up....

Some people are never happy with anything!

If Pat Bell wouldn't actively be seeking engagement with large foreign developing markets such as China they would slam him for *just sitting on his duff in his office and not doing anything.*

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

“Moving a thousand board feet of lumber from an average Canfor mill to Shanghai about $60-$65 dollars, that’s the same amount it costs to ship that thousand board feet to Chicago. If you want to move the lumber further down south into the U.S. you’re into 90 plus dollars, so even though we think of the Chinese market as a long distance away, its really a very short distance and its because the sea borne transport is very affordable.” WHO CARES
It is the delivered cost and mill net bthat matters and it is at a huge discount in China.

Are you cutting the deal leoleo?

What is the huge discount?

What is the volume?

What is the product?

What are the pending agreements?

What are the conditions to be met by both parties for further contracts?

Does anyone remember when?

- when the USA put a tariff on our lumber in order to reduce the imports into the USA

- when many Canadian sawmills consolidated operations and ran full shifts in selected mills and kept costs down by increasing production?

- sold lumber at low margins

And then these days when the price is so low that operations cannot continue as they are for much longer even though many mills are closed.

Aren't we talking discounts to the USA, just different words?

At least with China we do not have NAFTA and the USA interpretation of what it means to contend with.

-------------------------

oooooooooooooooooohh... that scary communist boogeyman .... beating us at our own game ....

over a billion served .... learn to live with it .....

Ah, but Eagle, all that doesn't matter as long as it creates "jobs". Our politicians, of all colours in the political spectrum, would sell their souls and the country itself to the Devil if it leads to "employment". Doesn't matter a whit whether people can live on the income they're paid, (which, increasingly, they can't), as long as we're all "working" our way into bankruptcy, that's all that matters.

FYI, don't look to China to save the BC forest industry through a massive switch to wood houses. The Chinese regard a wood framed house in just about the same way we'd regard a "little old sod shanty on the plains". Better than no shelter at all, but not by much. Something 'poor folks' HAVE TO live in, with the attendent loss of status, or "face", in their community. Something that's a little more important in Oriental culture than it is here.

We'll have just about as much luck boosting our sales of lumber for housing built the North American way there as we did in our efforts to convince the British to adopt our construction techniques years ago. They're still using bricks and mortar.

As much as I do not trust anything government says "they do for us" I think this is positive and good news. Yes it might turn out to bite us in the butt in the end and yes China can be scary to deal with but anything at this point is a blessing. The USA have been nothing but ignorant when it comes ot our wood and even though many are suffering right now due to their housing dive I think it is a blessing in the long run. The USA never plays fair and always turn out to be the bully in every deal we do with them. Right now China looks better to me than the US ever did. On the other hand I hope this is not like one poster said above that our government is selling us off. Alberta just sold over 50% of the tar sand stocks to China and that scares me. China is the worst polluter on this planet and now they are going to look after the tar sands. Do you think China cares about the land that the tar sands lay on? Not one bit! I do not believe that another country should have control over Canadians resources and wish that the people who we put in charge felt the same. I guess at this point is is "wait and see" because the rest of us "have no say". :}

What book or pamphlet do I need to read to become the Authority on Everything, as many here seem to be? Or can I just self-proclaim it?

It is an opinion site for God sakes MrPG. I for one like seeing everyones point of views on different subjects. No one said we had to proove what we say to joine.
Geeesus! Get over yourself!

Yes Gus I am moving product there.
A coworker of mine has been on all the trips.
A very small % of our product will go to China as it is at a discount to what we can sell into North America and Japan.
Freight is approx. $50 M via Vancouver.

Thanks for the morning laugh, bleeding heart.

Better to be a bleeding heart than a person who looks for any small mistake (even spelling) to criticise and bully. :}

Good one. Now who needs to get over themselves?

"The Chinese regard a wood framed house in just about the same way we'd regard a "little old sod shanty on the plains". Better than no shelter at all, but not by much. "

After the last massive earthquake reduced thousands of brick houses to piles of rubble they (the Chinese) stood around and looked at wood frame houses which were still standing...

Good to see things are back on track here on baselessconjecture250.com

What guarantee do we have that the Chinese would buy any lumber from B.C.? Last time I checked, that CN line to Rupert comes from the other end of Canada, passing through a few other provinces that produce lumber. All in all, hamburger Patties' efforts on his China trips are probably better than no trips, no contact, at all.
IMHO.
metalman.

That's quite true, diplomat, but the cultural trend in China is still very much ingrained in traditional bricks and mortar. And if there's a modern day preference for replacing that it'll be re-inforced concrete, not wood.

That's not to say we won't be able to increase our exports of wood products to China, but traditional construction there, which does use some wood, but not a lot, is still likely to be the norm.

One of the reasons for the preference for masonry over wood frame construction there is their concern over how fireproof the wooden structure would be.

Some other concerns are the likely longevity of the structure, since the Chinese build for more than one generation, and also, and related to that, that in many parts of southern China wood construction would have to be treated wood to prevent insect damage.

Still "nothing ventured, nothing gained", and if we want to make an attempt to introducing the Chinese to our construction methods, I've nothing against that whatsoever. But I wouldn't want to place any bets that China will replace the USA as the main market for BC, and especially northern BC, forest products anytime soon.

Mr. PG
your comment is the only one i can agree with i want the phamphlet that makes me know it all too
even good news gets a bad rap here the chinese visited our mill a couple weeks ago if they are interested in our low grades we will sell it to them just like the store we dont ask who or what or when were just happy to be working not everything is a conspiracy
all the big companies sent a representative as well and they did not go for a holiday
last since when are any of the big lumber producers canadian ????????

OK without being an expert even i can see that the arguments boil down to two factions (that is, after all the predictions, smoke, flames , etc.). Some people thing this could be a good thing for BC and the forest industry. Some folk think that this isnt going to work out so why even bother trying.
I would have to ask the second group how exactly new markets are to be developed? The key word is developed. I dont actually know whether shanghai is going to use a lot of our wood, or whether it will help in the long run. Of course neither does anyone else (anyone in this case means anyone in the world, not just 250). I do know that without some effort being made, no markets will open up for us anywhere. New opportunities will arise and be capitalized upon by countries who dont begrudge the resources involved to do the ground work.

Unlike what many people think, BC does not have a monopoly on trees. We are in a global marketplace and we have to market ourselves aggressively.

Personally, I think anything we can do to develop new markets will be good for BC in the short-term. In the medium to long-term though, I still question whether our CURRENT industry can still be sustainable.

With time, I believe that there will be wood substitute products brought to market and I also think that there are countries in the world that, should they choose, will be able to make the exact same products we do at a much cheaper price point.

I'm still waiting to hear what the Province thinks the forestry industry will look like in 10, 15 or 20 years because that's what we should be working on moving towards now IMHO. I can't honestly fathom that in 2020 and beyond, our forestry industry will still be ticking right along banging out dimensional lumber.

I get the sense that our entire plan for the future of our industry is contingent on hoping that the rest of the world decides not to try and take our market share away. That's a pretty dangerous plan IMHO, especially when you have countries like China out there who have already demonstrated that they will be extremely agressive in developing their own economy at any cost (environmental, social, etc.). There are literally millions of people in the world who are just beginning to catch "capitalism fever" and they want to steal the piece of the pie that we have. How we react in the next 5-10 years I think will play a huge role in the future of our industry.

I can't help but draw parallels to the domestic auto industry from decades ago. There was a time when Japanese auto makers were written off as never being able to compete with the domestic industry. We had all the "know how", the hard workers, the expertise, etc. Well you know what happened there. For a more current example, take a look at the Korean auto makers Kia and Hyundai. 10 years ago they weren't a "serious" competitor. Not exactly the case now . . .

I think BC best get serious about the realities of our forestry industry and its' future. Before you know it, it could be all but gone and people will be sitting around asking "what happened". I hope I'm wrong but that's how I see things unfolding.

The BC Forest Industry will be very lucky indeed if it ever gets much beyond where it is to-day. The chance of it getting back to where it was 4 years ago in almost NIL, unless you can convince the Chinese to pay over $400.00 US per 1000 board feet.
Thats not likely to happen.

People should remember that when lumber was selling for$400.00 per fbm houses were selling for $300,000.00 to over $1 Million dollars in the USA.

Does anyone here actually beleive that the Chinese who are paying a lot of their Citizens $2.00 per hour are going to build cheap houses, and get their lumber from expensive mills in BC. Not bloody likely.

The USA and to some degree the Japanese have been our saviours when it comes to buying lumber. People had better hope they continue to do so, or we are in big trouble.

It will be one hell of a long time before China will every buy enough lumber from Canada, for our mills to be profitable.

I like that their is a healthy debate here for a change! Normally a story is posted and all the negative thinkers in PG line up to post their point of view. Its good to see a variety of postings from both sides of the coin for once! This site would be much improved if it took place on a regular basis.

"The government deserves criticism at times, but not for this. Give it a rest. Like it or not, China is a big trading partner."

Yes. People really need to get this through their thick skulls.
***
"This trip is all about selling off BC forests through our corporations to Chinese Communist State owned investment funds. Evil funds that prevert the markets through government trickery like currency manipulations... and Pat Bell wants to reward this type of market killing trade practices with a gift of our pulp mills in Mackenzie and Kitimat.

The bottom line is they is not a trade mission, but rather a treason mission to sell out the Canadian economic sovereignty to the whims of communist central planning. Mr Bell sells the mission as an opening to new markets and rubs all buy it up.... "

Did you base your opinion on your crackerjack box education?
***
"it's official! I just checked my dictionary. Supertech = rubbish!"

LOL
***
"To be either cynical or negative about expanding lumber markets with the Chinese at this point means that you fail to understand the current global marketplace and you do not percieve the necessary critical connections that a B.C.Forest Minister should be making. The chinese want to relate to key goverment officials, for that is the way their society works."

Well said northern boy!!

I wonder if anyone really understands how much lumber BC and Canada export to the USA. Its probably somewhere in the area of 25 Billion FBM. If you were to put this in perspective this would be approx 227272 73ft rail cars, or 3142 miles of lumber measuring 8ft wide 10ft high.

This lumber would stretch from Prince George to Montreal without a break.

The 25 Billion is at the lower end of the scale, during 2005,06, it was almost double that number.

So dont count on the Chinese to pick up this kind of volume, as it will never happen.

Approx 50% of the lumber exported to the USA comes from BC. BC'S revenue would be in the area of $2 1/2 Billion dollars.

Why do the people on this forum have to resort to name calling and childish remarks? Could be smoking that whacky tabacky and believe themselves to be very profound is my guess.
There appears to be a portion of this audience who cannot discuss a comment that does not display their own opinion. I was unaware that you attracted so many teenagers to your site Ben!

I don't think anyone is saying we ‘should not market our products’... marketing our industry itself and the tenures that go with them on the other hand is worthy of discussion before that transactions take place IMO.

I see the liberal crowd is out in full force to use their rhetorical skills to discount any message that speaks the truth. Pat Bell himself said he is there in China to talk to the Chinese about the potential of them buying the Worthington and Eurocan mills (the liberal party forestry legacy)... that is his stated mission... selling our wood product is the side show. This has been in the works for weeks if not months if you follow only Pats comments on the issue of a potential buyer for Worthington... no conspiracy about that at all.

IMO if it was a mission about developing markets and selling more wood then it would be a mission to India, and not China. India builds homes where people have traditionally lived and the Chinese move them all to mega cities built of concrete. Its a simple but profound observation and makes much more sense if the issue is to sell more wood.

The issue is not to sell more wood, but rather to sell the equity that makes the wood; and the equity that employs the people; and pays the taxes; and the equity that is responsible for our environment. Cheep fake money from state fraud for real world equity in real world assets that have a real world impact on our society. If we don't have a say in the kind of overlords of industry that will control future generations, then we have abdicated our role in respect to leaving this world in a better place than we found it.

In BC we are governed by secret back room deals and a crowd of political misfits that have no interest other than their own at heart when it comes to whose opinions have merit and what in fact is reality. We have no real objective investigative mainstream media that has local ownership. In BC democracy is a show and something used to blame the other guy for all our evils, meanwhile political hostage negotiators are running the show and everyday we find out the citizens of BC are a sideshow to the corporate agenda. BC could have done very well remaining as a free enterprise based economy, but our future now is to wake up in the morning to find out decisions effecting lives and whole communities were made with very little stakeholder input but massive stakeholder impacts... and we can blame for that… IMO the apologists that live in the world of partisan politics.

Time Will Tell
AIMHO

All the more important to remember that on Remberance Day. If not than why did we fight in the first place?

Firstly, it's pointless to argue about the price of board feet since nothing (at least according to the article) has been accomplished by Pat Bell in China yet, other than getting an MOU signed and having the government spend $800,000 to build a demo home.

An MOU is not a contract. It's not legally binding and is nothing other than a way for people to avoid being contractually obligated to one another but still express an interest in *possibly* doing business together. As a business man I can give you a long list of MOUs that never led to anything. However, in the context of government relations, the MOU is a way of expressing interest publicly. At best the creation of an MOU is ambiguous and may or may not be binding. In this case we're not given enough information to decide anyway.

Now the bottom line is that Pat Bell is in China to drum up interest in lumber. The profitability of the mills isn't in his domain. But since he's also the regional MLA, he's supposed to be protecting your jobs and futures. So this begs the question of the particulars in the MOU, what is the price of board feet agreed to? What is the quantity agreed to? etc, etc. Let's demand the particulars of the MOU, then make a decision.

One of the ways to protect the local economies (and your jobs) from future boom and bust cycles is through diversification. Other than the proposed "green" biomass energy plant, I haven't seen any viable plans to diversify the local economies of the areas.

I've repeatedly sent emails to all of the top officials in the regions to try and drum up interest in a technology based diversification strategy and received zero interest from anyone in politics out there.

So as citizens affected by this economic downturn, you need to demand the particulars of the MOU, then ask the mill presidents if they can be profitable at the prices specified and still pay you your full salaries at the prices Pat is pitching. Then you need to demand from your MLAs the particulars of the diversification strategies they have to protect you from further boom and bust cycles. Where is Pat's strategy to meet the declining demand in world pulp and paper? Where are the strategies to diversify the local economies?

Supertech wrote:
"Why do the people on this forum have to resort to name calling and childish remarks?"

Good comment and am with so far!!
--------------------------------------
"Could be smoking that whacky tabacky and believe themselves to be very profound is my guess."

Starting to stray from the topic into a more childish remark. I bleieve this does not further your argument one bit. Instead, it moves to the methods of others you are protesting about.
---------------------------------------
"There appears to be a portion of this audience who cannot discuss a comment that does not display their own opinion."

Do you find this strange for a site that is called "Opinion 250"? I do not. I kind had the impression that the creators of the site wanted people to post their opinions. It is a key point of their site.
------------------------------
"I was unaware that you attracted so many teenagers to your site Ben!"

Now you lost your original point (opinion)you made well in the first sentence.

Actually, based on that, you might look inside yourself and ask why you have to resort to disparage people. You will then get the answer of why some others so the same as you.

To thedude:

"I've repeatedly sent emails to all of the top officials in the regions to try and drum up interest in a technology based diversification strategy and received zero interest from anyone in politics out there."

This is just a guess, but I'd suspect that the e-mail route is not the best way to communicate with someone who probably receives hundreds of e-mails every day, 90% of it not worth taking the time to read.

thedude:-"I've repeatedly sent emails to all of the top officials in the regions to try and drum up interest in a technology based diversification strategy and received zero interest from anyone in politics out there."
------------------------------------------
Perhaps they can't see how such a "diversification" could ever 'pay'. Personally, while I've nothing against the concept of "diversification" as a better policy than being totally reliant on any one thing, I seriously doubt if there were actually any 'money' to be made from diversifying that we wouldn't be doing just that. I rather suspect that "diversification" is something akin to "value-added". Everyone's all for it, because it sounds good, but when you get down to the actual numbers as presently computed very little of it can ever be made to pay. I think many might want to delve into "why", and that should undoubtedly be delved into, but in my own opinion we're not ever going to find the answers where we've been looking. They exist, but at a higher level of the entire economy as it relates to money itself.

thedude:"I've repeatedly sent emails to all of the top officials in the regions to try and drum up interest in a technology based diversification strategy and received zero interest from anyone in politics out there."

MrPG:"This is just a guess, but I'd suspect that the e-mail route is not the best way to communicate with someone who probably receives hundreds of e-mails every day, 90% of it not worth taking the time to read."
******
I have to agree with MrPG but will add that if you are serious about gaining interest you need to be proactive. Get out there and meet with them. Show them your proposal(s). Best wishes!

i have sold about 1000 cntrs of lumber to china from north america in the last year.

what i can say is one year ago when lehman brothers failed, the global economy melted.

this was caused by U.S. bankers who packaged off the toxic subprime mortgage loans. the US coalition lumber lobby keeps penalizing us if we ship lots of lumber to the US.

basically when the world melted one year ago, there were a lot of logging plans set and a lot of excess inventory.

the only country buying a lot of volume was China. they are cheap but at least they made the pile go away.

#3 lumber traditionally sells in Vancouver
Texas
Idaho
middle easte
Taiwan
and now China

vancouver remanners bought #3 to pull Stud grade out but the stud grade price is not high enough to offset the resorting costs

Texas market was dead so they were not buying #3

Middle east market was dead because the oil markets collapsed and their construction sector died off and still dead

taiwan wanted #3 /econ lumber to make pallets to ship computer parts but that market was soft so no pallets were needed

China is cheap but at least they put a number on the inventory that was piling up here. China did not create the global crisis, china has very little safety net . most families there FEAR hi medical costs so they save a lot in case of medical emergencies. a lot of people there work 7 days a week, 10 hrs a day and live in dorms to make ends meet.

the lumber companies are not forced to sell #3 /econ over there.

We are not forced to sell to china.
we can sell to canada, us, middle east, and other countries...but those other countries are still soft.

so the point is China is not going to save us now but when we should appreciate that at least they are moving our wood.

pat bell does fail to mention that we are indeed losing money when we sell to china but right now 99% of sawmills in BC are losing money. i do appreciate his optimism tho. It is hard to travel in china and i do not believe he is having a great time.

before all you people slam china, go there yourself before you make senseless judgement calls. Nobody is forcing us to sell there. if they didnt move the low grade, our industry would be running even less than the 50% it is running now.

the real culprit to our mess is the US wall street bankers and alan greenspan who allowed mortgage deregulation to morph into the toxic subprime mess that melted the global economy

put another way...
alan greenspan allowed the greedy wall st bankers to package off subprime loan risk.
this fed a speculative US housing bubble.
NINJA loans even arose (no income, no jobs)

the housing bubble grew in the US and many homeowners took out cheap home equity loans to buy consumer items.

us consumers drive 70% of the US economy.
the US economy is about 20% of the world economy. therefore the US consumer drives about 14% of global gdp.

as the subprimers started to default on their mortgages, over 100 subprime mortgage lenders filed for bankruptcy.
these failures spooked the US 6.5 trillion mortgage backed securities market. many of these subprime debts were packaged off to asian and european investors as investment vehicles and the collapse of the mortgage securities market caused global banks to stop lending! this credit crunch eventually hit the forestry sector.
and the US consumer stopped buying and stopped building houses. the US housing start level fell from 2million homes a year to 400,000 homes a year.

so again. it was mainly the bankers that helped the bubble grow.... and now we are all paying for it ...

Thats why that bankers should start paying taxes on their speculative 'futures trading' stock market manipulations... and thus pay back to the tax payer what they have taken... and contribute to society... and be forced into a responsible long term business model.... But that will never happen as long as they control politics.

Meanwhile we will subject to rationalizations as to why we should accept Chinese ownership of our livelihoods.

Most people have no idea that banks pay no taxes on their speculative trading that is a preversion of the markets by computer modeling that makes pry of regular investors and pensions. Meanwhile mom and pop have to pay a new HST tax to heat their home next winter.... Priorities I guess.

To commoner, MrPG, socredible

Yes I have met with the few I could get time to see. However travelling across the country on my own dime to knock on doors and beg for meetings isn't cheap.

Email is the communication gold standard in my industry and most of the emails were followed up with phone calls (which were also ignored).

Diversification into technology based areas isn't a pipe dream, we're doing it now in our business. Thousands of other businesses are doing it every day. Saskatoon is a model of diversification. Innovation Place generates billions of dollars of revenue for the province that didn't exist 20 years ago.

Whether or not they agree with the concepts we propose or not isn't the issue, the fact is the efforts were met with silence.

What does the failure of mortgage backed securities have to do with a decline in domestic demand for pulp and paper? The bottom line is that demand in many niches of the paper business is declining domestically. It's being replaced by demand for electronic mediums like this one. And by things like Amazon's Kindle, or other e-readers. A big reason for the economic disaster in areas like Mackenzie is from pulp and paper, not just lumber and started long before the recession.

Sure, WORLD demand for paper may increase, WORLD demand for lumber may increase as countries like China and India use our cash to fund the growth of their economies. But do you think they'll be paying domestic prices for those products? The per capita GDP of those countries doesn't allow them to do that. How is a person living in China that earns the equivalent of $5 a day going to afford to pay a Canadian or US company domestic prices for the lumber used to build their houses? China's per capita purchasing power is a fraction of Canada's and a fraction of the US's. The emerging "affluent" middle class earns the equivalent of $12,500 a year. How much of that do you think they're going to put in our pockets?

China also has a rapidly shifting demographic. By 2050 a quarter of their population will be over 60. How much spending power do you think they'll have?

The bottom line is that if lumber is being sold to China at a lower price, then something has to give and like it or not, it will be our salaries.

basically the collapse of the mortgage backed securities shook the confidence of the world and especially the US consumer. and it crashed housing prices all across the US.
therefore housing starts collapsed and thus the lumber market collapsed and thus our lumber industry is running only at 50%.

i dont much about paper demand but i do know that overall corporations are not spending a lot this year on advertising and that may affect paper demand.

bascially in an spf mill
5 to 7% is japan grade
10% may be home centre grade (north america)

50%-60% maybe #2 and btr (contractor grade)
10-15% maybe #3 (china)
3% maybe #4 , economy (china)

so lumber suitable for china market is only 20% tops.

japan and north american market comprises about 80% of a typical spf mill.

these markets more strongly determine the mill nets (mill return).

joeyrocks: Your assessment of the lumber industry is well understood and appreciated.

However, I guess my point wasn't well conveyed. What I do know is that lumber is part of a multi-issue problem. Mackenzie for example had multiple pulp and paper mills and Pat Bell is also in China shopping around the Worthington Mackenzie pulp mill. The town of Mackenzie is owed (if I remember correctly) $4 million dollars in back taxes and the decline of the pulp and paper industry was what mostly devastated that town.

One attempt to sell the mill to China has already failed. How many more attempts will they make to flog this dead horse and at what cost to the eventual workers at the mill? That's really what I want to know.

It's a mistake to assume that "any jobs" are better than "no jobs". If those jobs destroy your standard of living, how is that better? The people in Mackenzie still owe the banks hundreds of thousands of dollars on their mortgages, they still need to pay for their car loans.

If they can't do that with lower salaries, then the per capita spending power shrinks. So from my standpoint, its not enough to just make jobs in a declining industry at any cost. I mean if that's our standard, we might as well all go work at Walmart and forget about it.

We need to build real economic value through diversification and re-tooling of the workforce.

If a Chinese company buys the mill, will they employ union workers? Will they come back at full salaries? As far as I know, a non-union company has already taken over the maintenance of that mill and is employing non-union workers at presumably lower pay grades than the previous employees that managed that mill.

But all of this is speculation and conjecture. What I want are real numbers. What are the specifics of this MOU? What is the price of lumber Pat is pitching? Lets get some real numbers, real projections and real data then make some rational, informed decisions.

As so many have already pointed out, these deals are done without stakeholder input. But the worst crime is that they're not even INFORMED. The title of the story was "Trade Mission A Breakthrough" but doesn't give us any specifics. Pat doesn't give us any specifics on his website. So it's impossible for anyone to get motivated to action because they have no information. Where is the MOU? Where are the specifics of what he's pitching?