"In this region it is now estimated that only 36% of the economy relies on the forest industry."

ONLY?????

That should be STILL!!!!

I think it needs to be reduced more in order to become sustainable. That percetnage still does not factor in much of the expected loss through the MPB induced shortfall in timber over the next 50 years or so. The government is still not getting off its hind end to do anything about that. At least nothing that they are letting us know about and nothing that is visible. Quite the contrary!!

Here's the thing. We've still got to deal with the fact we have millions of dead trees whose shelf life is coming to a quick end. We may be able to use those trees for pellets or biomass, but what about after that. It takes a long time to regrow the forest.

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=1aef6b67-d7db-4e92-bcf4-89d3069065d7

So Prince George lost 1400 people in 2009. We are soon to go under the 70,000 mark in population if this continues. Our Prince George sites still say 77,000 for population. Why?

We are slated as one of the highest taxed cities in BC not including the Vancouver area. Taxes have been raised every year for the last three by both the Regional District and City. We have one of the highest crime rates. We have the worst air quality. The gas prices are always the highest. There is so much more....

Do we actually think that people are going to stay here once they lose their jobs? Why would they?

I believe things are going to get a lot worse in the economy. The band aids that were put on the stock market and bailouts are going to fall off. Those of you that believe we are going to improve on all levels are going to be like deer caught in headlights. The carbon tax is going to increase, we are getting the new HST and the utilities are all yapping about increases. The gas prices will increase again. Cost of food which increased due to gas prices never reduced after it was all over but will increase again as soon as the gas prices increase. No one is getting raises other than bankers and government employees.

These are just a few things just off of the top of my head and I did not even get to the problems in our education and medical areas.

Things are a huge mess and we still say nothing.... We deserve to give over 55% of our hard earned money away.

Good grief...I'm sure your Grade 8 English teacher is rolling over in his/her grave. Not only is this piece riddled with grammatical errors/omissions...but it has no real focus. It just rambles on, initially taking the stance that "those who think 2010 will be a better year are sorely misled"...but then offers up numerous optimistic perspectives on the future of the pulp & forest industries, and ends with the optimistic opinion that "there's gold to be found in them thar hills". So which is it? Are the people who are thinking positive about 2010 "sorely misled" or are they, like you apparently, looking at some recent positive signs and developments in forestry to continue and make it a much better year than 2009?

I hope this is just an example of too much eggnog over the holidays and the need to shake the cobwebs off, before the resumption of concise, well-formulated and well-written editorials. C- on this one.

The article is a bit dated, but I assume you did not actually read it. It was written when the 2006 census of population data came out in 2007. The story about BC was repeated in both Ontario and Quebec which have a relatively large number (but small population) of small communities outside of the main 1+ million urban areas.

The reason I think you may not have read it is because, other than the figures at the bottom, the main example given was a family of Japanese heritage that lives in Terrace and whose sons went off to the lower mainland to study (can't take law and engineering in Terrace).

Here are the words from one of them.

"People don't go back because there's no jobs there. The pulp mill is suffering, the sawmill is closed," says Jason, now 28. "The vast majority of my graduating class is in PRINCE GEORGE, Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, Toronto."

See the first city that slipped off the tip of his tongue.

THAT is what we have to continue doing id we want to grow in population or not fall behind at worst, become a community that slips off the tip of people's tongues when they think the grass is greener somewhere other than where they are.

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=1aef6b67-d7db-4e92-bcf4-89d3069065d7

Sorry.... that post of mine was in response to IMO's post, not Opinion 250's article.

Shhhhhh...don't say anything good or the criminal Campbell will tax it....

WHy would china want our wood when they have an almost limitless supply nearby in Russia.

I suspect it has somethng to do with the fact that China already buys more from Russia than the reverse, so there is a considerable trade deficit.

It is the other way around with Canada. China needs to buy some products from Canada to get back to some sort of trade balance.

Besides, if they really want lumber for building, Russia does not have the kind of capacity as Canada does to provide them with a reliable product.

from the year+ old article

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1925439820080519

"China is the destination for 5.2 percent of Russian exports. The main exports are crude oil, oil products and TIMBER." (not lumber)

As far as I know, China is probably much more interested in pulp than lumber since they need to feed all the new paper making capacity they have been building of the last 5 or so years.

The demand for woodchips does not rise or fall on the basis of the price of woodpulp. Pulpmills always operate at full capacity 24 hours per day 365 days per year, regardless of where the price of pulp is. The alternative would be to shut the mills down. So the increase in pulp prices does not mean the mills will consume more woodchips.

Higher pulp prices might allow pulp mills to avoid taking any additional downtime, and in that sense they would consume more chips. More chips would be consumed if the Pulp Mills in Mackenzie, or Chetwynd, started up.

China historically buys lumber and woodpulp when the price is depressed, and they store the product. Then when the price rises, they stop buying. China also at this point buys primarily low grade or cull lumber, used mostly for concrete forms. and of course this type of lumber does not get the best price.

As an example, we have exported more lumber to China in 2009 than to Japan, however we have made significanly more money from Japan because they buy hi-grade lumber.

It would take literally 10/20 years before we could ever count on China to take a major part of our lumber production at a price that would allow us to run our mills. Once the recession in the USA turns around and they start building houses again we will sell our lumber to them because they are a huge customer, and they pay the best prices.

Lumber Companies in BC made hundreds of millions of dollars selling lumber into the USA when the price was around $400.00 per 1000FBM. We only pay a tax on lumber to the USA when the price drops below $300.00 per 1000FBM. This tax is to protect the US Mills. (Whats wrong with that). Do people think that US mills should go broke so Canadian mills can keep running??? Highly unlikely.

Once the price rises over $300.00 per 1000 FBM. We will once again be selling major volumes into the USA. The production will never return to the 2004-2006 levels and prices. Certainly not in the USA.

Anyone who thinks that the Chinese will pay $300 to $350 per 1000fbm is only kidding themselves. They can build with concrete, brick and mud, much cheaper.

Even with the price of lumber at $280.00 per 1000 FBM,and the 15% tax we are still selling huge amounts of lumber to the USA. A hell of a lot more than we are shipping to China, and making a hell of a lot more money.

If your counting on China to bail you out, then you have bet on the wrong horse.

Good post, Palopu, I agree completely. We'll continue to grow the China market in volume, no doubt, but it'll be tough to get a price from them that'll cover the costs.

statement 1: "Pulpmills always operate at full capacity 24 hours per day 365 days per year, regardless of where the price of pulp is"

statement 2: "Higher pulp prices might allow pulp mills to avoid taking any additional downtime, and in that sense they would consume more chips."

Palopu, can you reconcile the two statements, the second of which sounds like it contradict the first?

"Anyone who thinks that the Chinese will pay $300 to $350 per 1000fbm is only kidding themselves. They can build with concrete, brick and mud, much cheaper."

I agree with that statment in the short term.

In five years time, that may no longer be true. Remmember that the relative rate of production, production capacity and income between China and countries such as Canada is phenomenal. It is still on a steep curve and will continue to be so for a while longer before it will start to level out and having some of the problems some developed countries have, especially those who have been depending mainly on population growth, such as the USA and even Canada.

Here's one of the latest indicators of where China is going that few people realize.

http://www.nbainchina.com/mercedes-benz-wins-new-shanghai-stadium-naming-rights

Naming rights for an 18,000 seat arena in Shanghai - around $100 million for an arena that will cost about $200 million - was bought by Mercedes, even though they do not expect a return on the money over the 10 year naming rights period.

“The new Mercedes-Benz Arena will reinforce Shanghai as culturally-rich city on the world map and create a new destination of arts and lifestyle on the international stage.”