Prince George, B.C.- There is very little chance there will be any flooding during the spring freshet along the Fraser or Nechako Rivers.

The latest snowpack bulletin indicates the snowpack in the Upper Fraser is 83% of normal for this time of year, and 94% of normal along the Nechako system.   For the Skeena, the snowpack is 74% of normal.

The bad news is there is a potential for water supply challenges this summer especially in the southern reaches of the province.

 

Basin snow water indices across B.C. vary from a low of 64 per cent of normal in the Similkameen and East Kootenay basins to a high of 99 per cent of normal on Vancouver Island. Basin snow water indices declined in

many basins during March (including the Upper Fraser, Nechako, Mid Fraser, North Thompson, South Thompson, Nicola, Columbia, Okanagan and Kettle). A few basins experienced increases in their snow water during March (including the South Coast, Vancouver Island, Peace, Skeena and Nass). In most basins, low- and mid-elevation snow is absent or well below normal.

 

Overall, much of central B.C. (Fraser, Thompson, Peace) has 85-90 per cent of normal snowpack. Southern B.C. (Nicola, Okanagan, Kettle, Similkameen, Kootenay) has 65-85 per cent of normal snowpack. The East Kootenay and Similkameen basins stand out as having particularly poor snowpacks. The Skeena and Nass basins are also dry, at only 81 per cent, but they have improved notably from their 73 per cent level a month ago.

 

The low snowpack and lower than normal snowmelt runoff may be reflected in such things as lower than normal lake and reservoir levels, lower than normal recharge of groundwater aquifers, and lower than normal river levels during summer.

 

Snow conditions at the end of the winter comprise only part of the peak flow and water supply forecast picture. Spring weather has a large influence. To reduce the potential for summer low-flow or drought problems, spring rainfall (April, May and June) will need to be at or above normal. The first week of April has been cool and wet. However, the long-range seasonal forecast from Environment Canada is for warmer than normal weather over the next three months.