The Written Word: Rafe Mair Oct.12th
By Rafe Mair
Thursday, October 12, 2006 03:46 AM
The news from North Korea is frightening in the extreme. We already know that this rogue state has the ability to deliver nuclear weapons – at least as far as Japan.There is a mad man leading North Korea and because such people are not rational, diplomacy doesn’t work … at least not very well.
Doing nothing is not a realistic policy but may well happen as happened when another mad man, Hitler, started to re-arm, contrary to the Treaty of Versailles. As Britain and France learned to their sorrow, giving the matter time so you can better handle the situation means that North Korea,like Nazi Germany, can use that time to enhance its nuclear program.
Unchecked, it’s only a matter of time before North Korea is truly a nuclear power.
Forceful intervention brings its own set of problems not least of which is who will do it?
The United States would be wrong for at least two reasons – first she doesn’t even have the manpower to keep Iraq from self destruction; second, the Chinese as much as anyone don’t want an American presence on their border.
There is another caveat – Seoul, a city of over ten million is virtually on the 38th parallel dividing North and South. I remember some years ago having a drink on the lawn at the residence of the Canadian Ambassador. There was a war scare at the time and I asked the Ambassador, Derek Burney, how long it would take the Northern Koreans to join us in the back yard. Mr Burner said “about 20 minutes!!”
North Korean artillery on the 38th parallel is extensive and aimed at the South Korean capital. Hundreds of thousands would die on the initial artillery barrage. Unhappily there are always innocent folks at immediate jeopardy when lightning fast modern warfare is waged. It must be remembered that when it was assumed that Iraq had WMDs they would have been trained on Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities.
Unfortunately, this is the sort of issue that, if not attended to, slowly becomes boring – it’s rather like the way we all got used to “the” bomb in the Cold War.
Doing nothing is not an option meaning that the U.N. Security Council must grasp this nettle and decide what to do – then promptly do it.Previous Story - Next Story
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IMO this will end in war, and if that happens Korea must end the war united and China should be told supporting North Korea is a red line they must not cross. The key to any war with North Korea will be to nutralize the hostage situation by taking their ground (at least 20km behind their front lines) as fast as possible, faster than the North Koraens can mobilize, or use nuclear weapons. Both options are unrealistic, therefore the world needs a poison apple for Kim, or the Chinese need to be pursuaded they own this problem and must solve it if they want to participate in the global economy (ie food aid from Canada, over seas equity, ect).