The Written Word: Rafe Mair February 22nd

By Rafe Mair

 I am not a Liberal. I was once - but I was a baby once too. I was a member of the Liberal Party until the so-called Quebec crisis of October 1970. I resigned because I strongly opposed Pierre Trudeau’s gross over reaction to a murder and a kidnapping.

I tell you this because I believe that the Central Canadian media have given the next election to Mr. Harper a little too soon.

 Harper has indeed done things that will please many voters - though not me. I especially shudder at his barely disguised ambition to stack the Supreme Court of Canada with good Tories though that’s, I suppose, an oxymoron. I just think that the
media has written off Mr. Dion too quickly.

Much of the reason for that is an uneven performance by Dion in the House of Commons. That’s a dangerous way to assess parties and their leaders mainly because most people don’t watch Question Period. Moreover, times have changed since reports on who beat who in the Commons mattered.

Now the acid test is the leaders’ debates and the actual campaign itself. In the election a year ago Prime Minister Martin lost an election which, despite "Sponsorgate" he could have won had he not gone bananas over The Charter of Rights and his resolve to get rid of the Notwithstanding Clause - something, incidentally, that requires a Constitutional Amendment.



The acid test in the next election will be how Dion handles Harper and how he does, especially in Central Canada, where, as always, the election is decided. The Tories have Alberta and will get a good slug of votes in BC but will Quebec give them 10
seats again? Harper has to do well in Quebec in order to win seats in Ontario which, by and large, votes as much on what they perceive as national unity as other common issues.



I don’t say that Dion will win, just that he has a better chance than he’s being given. I know him and thus know that he has a good public presence, is witty and has an excellent grasp of the issues.

 
And let’s remember, he isn’t exactly running against Mr. Personality   

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