The Bulkley River has been rising slowly for the past 4 days, in response to the hot weather and accelerated snowmelt in the basin. It is currently at a discharge of about 750 cubic metres per second (cms), as measured at the gauge at Quick. This is approximately an 8-year return period. It is expected to increase to near 820 cms by mid-afternoon tomorrow, which is approximately a 15-20 cm increase in water level from its current level (as measured at Quick). This will be about a 5 cm higher water level than the 1997 event.

As the high pressure ridge moves off tomorrow, a cool, wet front will penetrate, bringing rain to the Bulkley valley. Rain will likely begin as convective thundershower activity Monday afternoon and evening, and then transition into broader frontal rain Tuesday. Currently, about 30 mm of rain over 48 hours is forecast for the Smithers area. Heavier rain could occur locally, tomorrow PM, with the active convective storm activity.

There is some possibility for the Bulkley River at Smithers to surpass its previous record flood, from 1972 (which was 970 cms), depending on the amount of rain received. This would be approximately a 40 cm water level increase from its current level.