It appears that this whole shutdown is being driven by the new Canfor Majority Shareholders, ie;

Jim Pattison, Third Avenue Management, and the Bentleys, they own approx 52% of the shares.

If they set the standard for keeping the mill open by getting concessions from their suppliers, and if the suppliers cannot meet the standard then it would appear that to some degree the suppliers and workers are responsibile for the closure, and Canfor will get less bad publicity.

When this closure was first announced they indicated that this was just the beginning and that there would be further announcements, as this is a long term plan by this Company. So be prepared for more.

I understand that there is significant downsizing taking place among Canfors Management at the various mills, however this type of downsizing usually doesnt get into the press.

The news reports last night were that "head hunters" have already hit Mackenzie to look for qualified people to work in other parts of the province and, no doubt, Alberta.

We must remember this is a workers' market we are in, and may continue to be in for some time as more people reach retirment age and are placed well enough to do so.

So, even if there are concessions given by workers, they may be short lived as they take the quick fix to maintain an income, and then seek work elsewhere in their own time so that they can do so without the pressure at the moment.

Once mills start up again, whether in a few months or next spring when the downturn in the US housing market may have stabilized and industries have re-aligned to the new equilibrium, the market for workers may be such that they will be stuck with second best.

As far as committment to the community goes, that seemed never to be a big consideration in this country, either worker to compnay or company to worker, as far as I was able to tell. Those are concepts that were much more common in locations like Europe and Japan.

Companies such as Canfor are hardly companis which provides security for their employees through programs such as in-house education using technical and management schools set up specifically for the company.

Training is haphazard and is generally union driven rather than company driven and typically only for very specific tech changes in production systems rather than the provision of transferable, industry recognized certification.

People in Canada spend a lifetime on the move as compared to many other countries. The whole system is set up with freedom as the primary driver - freedom to quit, and freedom to lay off. It works both ways.

Mass layoffs happen from time to time under such situations. Individual workers can do little about that. This is a matter for the differnt levels of government which may already have given concessions for attracting industries to certain locations and may end up having to give concessions to attract new industries in the wake of an old one shutting its doors.

Thus, working with the "devil you know" rather than the "devil you don't know" may be a wise start.

This is not a matter of precedent. There have been enough of those already to make this more a matter of prudent and common practice. Give and take is part of our daily lives, whether in business or social affairs.

"They known that down the road Mackenzie will be the "go to" place for fibre as the beetle finishes off the forests in the lower parts of the province."

Interestingly, the reduction of cutting in regions such as Mackenzie which have few pine stands, at a time when MPB killed trees should be cut elsewhere while it could still be used for higher end value, should be something encouraged by the government, perhaps with some subsidies. After all, the stumpage value of lower grade or no commercial use of MPB sticks left in the woods will cost the governemnt $ in the long run. So, there is a case to be made for relocating operations. This is not just Canfor trying to do what is best for itself, it is also the province trying to what is best for the economy of the province.

This has come about because of over stocking and a downturn in the demand.

Given that people move. Given that some people work shifts which see them away from home for a few weeks and then back again for a week, it might be beneficial to relocate some workers in various fashion to other production regions in the province for a year or so and provide them with a monitary incentive to do so.

I know someone who is an officer on board an oil tanker. He is away from home for 2 or 3 months at a time and then home for a month or so. Remote mining operations work in a similar fashion. It is certainly not ideal, but may be an option to consider in a transition phase.

Remember Jimmy threatened to shut down his huge warehouse in the lower mainland and move the operation into the states if a few forklift drivers didn't give concessions. Big business hate it that "workers" are now in the drivers seat.

Rate Rise Pushes Housing, Economy to `Blood Bath' (Update2)

By Kathleen M. Howley

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.

The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, the National Association of Realtors reported.

``It's a blood bath,'' said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. ``We're talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.''

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