Getting back to reality!...about time

It will only get worse.
Had to come sooner or later!
Information from Canada Mortgage and Housing should be taken with a grain of salt.
Fun with numbers.
Like realtors,they do not want to see it slow down!
Keep the hype going!

andyfreeze, give it a break.....realtors follow the market, they do not lead it.

Not usually Runner46 but in PG they do!

YTD figures, especially once one gets over the middle of the year, are considerably more meaningful than the figures for the individual months which go up and down like a yoyo.

What is interesting is that the year started off slower than last year and has since caught up and surpassed the same point as last year.

As far a multiples go, I would not even bother. This is simply not a multiples town. It was in the 60's and and early 70's. Look at the "high-rise" apartments on Queensway, 20th, 3rd, 15th. Then came the era of the 3 storey walkups on a much smaller scale until the bust of 1981.

Since then, with two exception, multiples have been townhouse style developments.

When one looks at multiple condo developments in Kelowna, Nanaimo, Kamloops and even Penticton now, it puts the "stuff" we build here to shame. The best we can generally do is ticky-tacky vinyl claded hermetically sealed units on a paper towel sized property.

Whoa Andyfreeze, lighten up...of course the "hot" market will correct itself from time to time, but geez-whiz, how can you argue that our economy is not getting better and better, and that the sky is hardly falling?!? It's not all "hype" when it's really happening! Also, you give realtors more power than they really have if you give them credit for leading the market. It's not healthy for anyone to have rose coloured glasses, but for goodness sake, let's give a bit of credit where credit is due and admit that we are hardly suffering here in our part of the world, and that our future is looking a lot brighter than it has in many years. (for most people - not all)

p.s. Have you tried to hire a building contractor lately? I've tried to get my tin roof repaired and everybody is so busy they can't be bothered with a 'small potatoes' job like mine. Look at all of the 'help wanted' ads, signs, and commercials...some employers can't find enough people to work. Both white collar and blue collar workers are in short supply in many industries...the economic 'better' times are not a myth or spin from a spin doctor.

p.s. Have you tried to hire a building contractor lately? I've tried to get my tin roof repaired and everybody is so busy they can't be bothered with a 'small potatoes' job like mine. Look at all of the 'help wanted' ads, signs, and commercials...some employers can't find enough people to work. Both white collar and blue collar workers are in short supply in many industries...the economic 'better' times are not a myth or spin from a spin doctor.

There are a number of factors that do not show up in these types of statistics. One would be the number of houses started this year but not sold. If you look at the different locations where these houses are being built you will see that there is a lot of **For Sale Signs** which leads me to beleive that a lot of houses were built on spec.

Insofar as the employment picture goes. I suspect that over the past years we have had a number of tradesmen who have left Prince George to work in other areas. Ie; Vancouver, Whistler, Kelowna, Pr Rupert, etc; etc;. What we have now in a shortage of tradesman and workers. So of course people are having a hard time filling these positions.

The problem is, is that there is less work on the horizen in this area, and more work to the West, and then North of Hazelton. Kitimat and the mines on highway 37 will employ in excess of 4000 to 5000 people for the next 5 years or so. A lot of these workers will come from the Prince George area and re-locate. Not good news for people who wish to sell their homes, because there will be a glut of houses on the market.

The indicator that should give you some hint of what is actually happening is the fact that even though there appears to be more people working and more contstruction etc; the population of Prince George according to the Federal 2006 Census, and the Provincial Stats, actually shows a decrease in population.

Palopu, I agree with some of your assessment, but in terms of the employment shortage being due to people moving away, the same labour shortage is also seen in the so called 'more desireable' areas, in fact, it's even worse in places like Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton, Grande Prairie, etc. (Not that I think those places are more desireable) Also, whether our population is static, increasing or decreasing, that does not speak to our economic situation now or necessarily in the future either. With the increased industrial activity to the west of us, PG is poised to also see an increase in employment due to the complimentary industrial needs of all this expansion, with the smaller communities not having the infrastructure to provide some of the industry/services that our city can provide and handle. I think we do have some ups and downs ahead of us (no one can deny the future pine beetle economic impacts), but our economy is also diversifying more and more, and I'm not one to ignore the economists (and others) who have made fairly decent predictions in the past, both positive and negative, about our economic future. The Northern BC Real Estate Board, just to cite one example, has been quite realistic with their predictions. They correctly predicted our mini housing boom/price increases; but have also predicted that prices will level off for a couple of years, then begin a GRADUAL rise after that. In the past, they have also correctly predicted downward trends. So why should we assume they are full of it now?? It's not in their interest either to be overly optimistic, or overly negative for that matter.

The true tale is in the number of actual houses sold in marketplace.
Right now there are more houses available than there are buyers and that is happening all over,not just in PG.
That is usually a sign that the market is at least slowing down.
Prices are also falling in many areas because of the glut on the market and economic projections for things like the forest industry.
When prices start to fall,people start to panic and list their homes before there is a serious drop,resulting in lots of homes on the market.
Next will come the rise in interest rates.
And that is coming soon.
it isn't always about facts and figures which may or may not be accurate.
Sometimes it's about simple logic.
I actually did hire some contractors in the spring and while there wasn't exactly a line up,it wasn't a major issue.
Palopu is correct when he mentions that many contractors have left the area to work elsewhere.
some will return and some will not.
There may not be an excess of contractors around this neck of the woods,but there is enough to get the job done.
The fallout from things like the Pine Beetle issue are only just begining to be felt.
It is going to get a LOT worse.
Pope and Talbot is in trouble,Canfor,Stuart Lake Lumber,and there are more.
I disagree that realtors follow the market.They have an interest in keeping up the hype as long as possbile to keep prices from falling.
I am not knocking realtors but it would make sense that they have a vested interest in a strong market for as long as possible.
And so do mortgage companies.
We have seen the bubble burst before and it will happen again, probably sooner than later.
When it happened last time,the same hype was heard and the same goes for the time before that.
I would prefer not to be looking through rose coloured glasses when it happens but hey,maybe that's just me.
Beware of staying too long at the fair!

Well yes the bubble will burst, as market corrections happen all the time. The best analogy I have is that our economy is like a person slowly climing a stair case while playing with a yo-yo. The yo-yo represents the ups and downs of the marketplace etc., but the staircase represents medium to long term overall growth. Even though we see good times and bad times, overall things are gradually improving in many areas, including PG.
If we all believed that "things are going to get a LOT worse", then we may as well just plain give up. Luckily, there are plenty of optimistic people who will expect and strive for positive results, instead of folding in their tents and complaining.

Well yes the bubble will burst, as market corrections happen all the time. The best analogy I have is that our economy is like a person slowly climing a stair case while playing with a yo-yo. The yo-yo represents the ups and downs of the marketplace etc., but the staircase represents medium to long term overall growth. Even though we see good times and bad times, overall things are gradually improving in many areas, including PG.
If we all believed that "things are going to get a LOT worse", then we may as well just plain give up. Luckily, there are plenty of optimistic people who will expect and strive for positive results, instead of folding in their tents and complaining.

Sorry for the double messages...perhaps I'm the true "yo-yo"!

If one was to look back 3 or 4 years and see who was buying houses in PG at the bottom of the market, one would see many of them listing their houses and trying to dump them this past 9 months or so. Why, not because they are fearful of prices dropping. The main reason is to realize a profit of approximately $100,000 on each home they purchased. Why do you think the market is flooded now. They played a key part.

The local homeowner is just late getting on the bandwagon. They want to get in on the increased house prices when the buyers have dried up. Flooded market and no buyers, what do you think is happening? Chester

I seen 2500 less jobs in PG last year as per stats Canada.

I saw house prices double in less than 2 years.

I see years of real wages droping 8% below real inflation when factoring in fuel prices, housing costs, cost of education ect.

I see the lowest interest rates ever allowing high debt servicing levels and money supply growing at 13% a year in an invironment where the Canadaina dollar has increased 50% against the American dollar.

I see a softwood lumber industry, the regions largest employer, in free fall financially with employments effects sure to come this fall when the building season wraps up.

I see a pine beetle problem devistating the future forest industry in this region.

I see no interest in our elected officials in improving our infrastructure to this region.

I see most commercial construction coming to a halt this fall with very little on the horizon.

I seen my neighbor this week sell her house in only a week for 75% more than she paid for it last fall.

I don't see anything as sustainable in our economy other than the hype and government jobs.

Time Will Tell

"hich leads me to beleive that a lot of houses were built on spec."

Nothing to even have to believe in. That is a fact of how the housing industry works. Builders build primarily on spec. Just go around any housing development in progress and see all the basements in the ground and a for sale sign up. When lots are purchased, they are typically purchased by builders, not by owners. Custom homes are rare and certainly mainly on the top end of the market.

Buzz: the trade shortage in PG is due to some trades moving away to the larger centers as palpolou said. Ive spoken to a lot of home contractors and they complain about the lack of good framers, etc to do work for them.
The housing markets in the larger centres like vancouver for example is exponentially larger than that of PG. I have a relative who lives in port moody and one home builder has virtually built up all of heritage mountain...I am talking about hundreds of homes maybe more.......just in this area alone...!!
Any tradesman could just walk in off the street and they would be hired on the spot and gainfully employed for years to come. These homes are alot nicer and pricier than the spec homes that pg builders construct and get way too much for ( in my opinion). I think the underlying reason why a market in the lower mainland will flourish and that of pg may burst and collapse is because the lower mainland's economy is much more diversified. Those that cannot afford homes in the greater vancouver area are moving out to areas such as chilliwack where homes are VERY nice and a lot less expensive (not like pg where new homes are NOT VERY NICE and way too expensive.

As far as jobs go and the ability to get people to do them, as Buzz said, the problem exists right accross the country. The maritimes have been trying to get "their people" back to the maritimes for a couple of years now.

The "problem" I find in North America that housing is a commodity rather than a home. Many people are actually nomads. They will pack up and move to another house just like that.

Why are we all talking about realtors, why are we not talking about movers? Where have all the movers gone? I rarely see a moving truck anymore these days. Even those with $400,000 houses move their belongings with the help of friends a few pickup trucks and vans. At best, they might rent a panel truck for a day.

A house is not a commodity to me. I am happy with the one I have. Why spend the time and effort to move somewhere else and start off with a patch of dirt or move into a pre-owned house where I have to re-arrange the yard to make it mine? In the process, one typically loses money, not gains it.

Want to bet on real estate? ... Then buy a second house or condo, gain the value, rent it to cover much of your monthly carrying costs, leverage the new paper value to buy a third, etc. If you are lucky you can buy low and sell high.

In the meantime, my house went up in value after I built it, crashed in 1981, slowly rose again, went back down agioan, and now has picked up and is getting close to the relative value it had when I first built it.

Was it worth it to buy rather than rent? I won't be able to tell until it comes time to move from here to an old age living situation. It is the value at that time which will be important to me. It will be cash-in time and I hope it will happen after a nice steady up cycle rather than a down cycle.

The rest of you can play in the housing commodity market and keep on moving hoping you will win at the game. The only people who win at that are those who act as their own general contractor, build a house, move into it for a year while they build the second house, and sell the first once they have finished the second, and so on.

No realtors, no home warrantee program hassles, nada. Other than that you have to know what you are doing or you could get hurt badly.

I agree with Owl when it come to staying put. A house for me is a place to live. Ive been in mine for 30+ years and have seen the value rise and fall. It means nothing to me, and wont until I decide to sell.

Insofar as the local situation goes, the point I am trying to make is that this City has not grown in population for the past 10 years. So we can assume that for every move in there is a move out. For every death there is a birth. The people buying new houses are local kids who have grown up, got a job, got married and are now buying their first house. Some new houses are being bought by older people who are moving up, and they are selling their old houses, or renting them.

The Moving companies claim that most of their business in the past few years has been within the City. People moving in and out are about the same.

Tradesmen and workers left Prince George in droves in the last 10 years, because there was no work here. These people are now relocated. Once the economy started to pick up and get back to where it was, of course there were not sufficient people available the cover the jobs, and therefore we have a shortage of workers. The problem is, is that people are going to continue to leave Prince George because the big contracts, and jobs will continue to be elsewhere. We have nothing on the horizen that would indicate any big increase in the economy, and if fact it will decrease very substaintally.

Grande Prairie, Ft St John, Ft Mcmurray, Kitimat, and the mining interests will continue to pull people away from here. In fact my neibours company just landed a big contract in Grande Prairie, and he will be leaving next week.

Contrary to popular opinion the Prince George economy has not diversified one iota in the last 30 years. There is no new industrie in the town. The CN Container Terminal will never get the CN Employees back to where they were in the 70's and 80's. The CN Station on first Avenue used to employ approx 100 people. To-day it has none. This is just one example for CN. There are many others.

The Prince George Airport in the 60's and 70's was a booming proposition, with as many or more flights that they have to-day, plus they handled a lot more cargo. We will have to see if the local Authority can maintain the status quo.

At one time in Prince George you couldnt get a space in a trailer court. A few years ago I counted over 120 empty spaces. What this means is that people have either moved away, or moved into houses.

All the new buildings at Parkwood, or Westgate, are either relocated present business's or business's that have caused others to go out of business, so that at the end of the day if you wanted to make an indepth analysis you would see that nothing has really changed.

An example would be Home Depot. They are a new kid on the block, however we lost a couple of Hardware and Building supply stores, and Thunderbird Electric so in effect what was the net gain??

The same thing applies to Wal Mart. Where are
the Saan Stores, Kresges, Woodwards, Woolworths, Stedmans, to name a few. Gone. So what is the net gain?

The only projects in the Greater Prince George area that I can see in the immediate 10 year future will be mostly taxpayers money, ie; Police Station, Performing Arts Centre, Cameron St. Bridge, Twinning Simon Fraser Bridge, Co-Generation Plant. I am not aware of any big projects on the board for Private Money, other than real estate development projects, in the UNBC area, Fraser River Benchland area, the area on both sides of the new 2 km road that will be punched in to the New Golf course off of foothills, and the continuing development of houses at Aberdeen Golf Course. These developments are projected to be done over a period of 20 years, so dont expect too much employment from them in the short term.

I have to agree with dgdiggler the new houses built in PG are not very nice. Why is that?

From the sounds of all of the conversation on this forum, you are giving me the hint that I shouldn't have taken a job here in Prince George and moved back. Perhaps I should have taken the job in Calgary. I should also go and tell the 4 people I know who have moved here from out east to pack their bags and leave and quit their new jobs.

If you want this city to fail then fine, Prince George is just an ugly blue collar town with no potential. We build large ugly houses and their is a false economy and anyone wanting a house is doing so strictly out of speculation not because they simply want a place to call home. Our air quality is garbage and the forestry sector is going to hemorrhage thousands of jobs. I can't wait until a few pulp mills close and all of you pessimistic folk will have your wish.

ahhh weezerfan, you only have to live in a town that has forestry for its economic engine for a couple of decades or so in order to understand the cycles.

"you only have to live in a town that has forestry for its economic engine for a couple of decades"

Or any town that has a single resource base as its economic engine.

At the moment we are all gaga over Ft. McMurray.

When I came in 1973 it was PG that was near the head of the parade not only from a provincial but a national point of view.

Unless something dramatic happens, Ft. McMurray will follow suit in another 20 years. There will allways be places like that and there will be different drivers.

And now we get to words such as sustainable and diversified and one gets to understand that if one cannot hack up anddown cycles, one really ought to go to nice communities such as Nelson, Sechelt, etc. where life is a bit slower.

Hey, wait a minute. Isn't that what we have had here in the last 20 years or so, change in infrastructure through re-arrangement rather than through addition, with one or two exceptions, including the arrival of a university which has resulted in a virtual doubling of the number of students here.

Based on some of your comments, I'm just going to slit my wrists and die then. There is no hope. All is lost. What a horrible future we all face. Doom and gloom is upon us. goodbye cruel world.

I'm with you Buzz, time to cash in all my chips,go to the beer vendor and go out with a bang.

Thats what the casino is there for....

Ok buzz. Just make sure you let the police know before hand....so they can check on you in a couple of days. Don't want you to be all bloated and stinky for body removal.

Its amazing how many people cannot differentiate between dialogue about various subjects, and negativism and pessimism.

What is being said for the most part is that this City is not growing. Is that so difficult to understand. If your population remains the same or decreases over a 10 year period you should be able to determine that the City is not growing.

There has not been one High rise apartment, nor one High rise office building built in this town in over 10 years.(Maybe 20) There has not been one new mill, or any other business of any significance built in the last 20 years.

We can make all the grand statements we wish about the University, however this is nothing more than tax payers dollars educating people in Prince George rather than somewhere else, and at the end of the day it is a major cost to taxpayers. The latest news about this facility is that the Staff and Faculty have a great pension plan, and **get this** children of faculty and staff can go to this University without paying any tuition. Isnt that wonderful. What it really says is that the UNBC people will go to any lengths to try and get their enrollments up. Why should the faculty and staff get to educate their children for free while the rest of us have to pay for ours plus theirs.

Prince George will probably stay in the 75000 to 85000 people range for the next 20 years. That is not necessarily a bad thing. If you have a job here you can probably keep it for the next 20 years and retire. Living in a small town is not a bad thing.

The problem with this town is that a lot of people keep hyping it for so much more than it is. It goes on ad nausem. The Mayor and his cronies cannot even allow themselves to change the sign at 16 and 97 from a population of 81000 to say 76000, even though they have all kinds of statistics, and a census that gives them the accurate information.

The Multi Plex (CN Centre) averages 3000 fans per game for the Cougers. These numbers include corporate tickets that have been bought but not used. This means in effect that we have built a building for 6000 fans, and we have an average of 3000. Does anyone say we screwed up?? No they say that if the Cougers start to win we will get the numbers up again. Fat Chance.

The Univesity Enrolments have peaked and flat lined for the past five years at approx 3600 Full Time Equivelent students. After five years you would think that maybe the student population is not going to grow, but no, each year we say next year will be better. So I guess we will look at the fall enrolments and see if we get the big 5% increase or not.

It would be refreshing if people would tell it the way it is, as opposed to the way they want it to be.