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Another Tough Year Ahead for Forestry

By 250 News

Thursday, January 03, 2008 04:01 AM

Prince  George, B.C. - 2008  will not be an easy one for the forestry indsutry.   

An analyst with Desjardin Securities says  it is unlikely the US housing market will recover before late 2009. Pierre Lacroix says the US housing starts are expected to  be 1.086 million in 2008 , that's down from previous predictions of 1.302m

On the   positive side, Desjardins says it expects  the Canfor Pulp Income fund to  remain strong. Desjardins predicts growth for Cascades Inc , Catalyst Paper Corp and Domtar Corp.

The forest industry has been  hit hard over the past year with  the rising loonie, plunging prices, no demand, and timber that has a short shelf life thanks to the  pine beetle.  While experts are saying  harvesting should  be full steam ahead  to  get the best value from the trees,  with no demand for the  end product  the industry finds itself  between a stump and a hard place.


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It looks like we should be getting a decision on the results of the softwood lumber arbitration case around the end of February.

The following paragraphs are from a Dec. 12, 2007 article on the Reuters News web site.

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - An international arbitration tribunal said on Wednesday it expects to rule by the end of February on U.S. allegations that Canada has violated a bilateral trade pact on softwood lumber.

"We feel that we would probably be in a position to come up with a decision by the end of February," said Jur Karl-Heinz Bockstiegel, chairman of the tribunal which heard the case for the London Court of International Arbitration, a commercial mediation body.

"It's not a promise, but that's our definite intention," Bockstiegel told the hearing, which was held in New York.

The Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA) between the two countries was signed in 2006 to end years of wrangling over sales of Canadian softwood lumber -- primarily spruce, pine and fur -- to U.S. buyers. Canada supplies about one third of the lumber used in the United States for construction.

The U.S. lumber industry now contends that Canada is breaking the deal by shipping too much lumber from Western Canada. It also says Canada has allowed the provinces of Quebec and Ontario to create improper financial aid programs for lumber producers."

If anyone wishes to read the entire article, the following is the link to it.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAN1264302520071212
How on earth did we sell lumber to the States before this agreement was created? Looks like the exercise in "wrangling" looks like a more preferable situation than we have today. They want it? Then sell it to them. If not, sell it to someone else or keep it here and sell more here at a lower price. And make housing and construction cheaper and more easily done. And maybe manufacture stuff from our trees. And not exporting logs. And cut down or diminish importing manufactured wooden goods from other countries. Sheesh! Will we always, here in Canada, be underpopulated and under developed?
Harbinger. If the last 20 years are any indication the answer to your question is yes.
There has been a number of people posting on here for quite a while now,in regards to the state of the forest industry.
There has also been a few who deny it is actually happening.
So now we have an analyst telling us what many already knew...
Sure glad this guy isn't looking after my investment portfolio!
Duh!
Thanks for the great softwood deal you shoved down our throats Ottawa. Wasn't it supposed to bring "certainty" to the industry Mr Harris? Oh that's right you didn't read the agreement, just did what Steven and Mr. Emerson told you to do.