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Near Normal Stream Flow Predicted for Spring

By 250 News

Friday, February 08, 2008 12:37 PM

Prince George, B.C. - The 2008 spring freshet should be near normal levels.  That's according to the latest snowpack report.  

The report shows the Nechako, Upper Fraser, Middle Fraser, Quesnel Highlands,Skeena, Nass, Peace,  Columbia, and Kootenay regionsa are all at normal levels (90 to 110%) The Thompson river system is the only major river basin with  above normal snowpacks,  with the North Thopmpson  120% of normal, and the South Thompson at 110% of normal.

 The River Forecast Centre is forecasting near normal spring runoff in many basins across most of B.C.

However, the well below normal snow conditions in the Okanagan, Kettle and Similkameen basins of the south central interior suggests the possibility for below normal streamflow and water supply in those areas this summer.

The above normal snowpack in the Thompson River basin results in potential for higher than normal spring runoff, during May and June. This may change over the next two months, depending on the amount of additional snowfall that occurs during the remainder of the winter.

Upper Fraser & Nechako Basins 

The snow water index for the Upper Fraser is 100% of normal for February 1st. Low and mid elevation snow is generally near normal (e.g., Prince George A = 94%, Burns Lake = 113%, Bird Creek = 127%), while high elevation snow is slightly below normal. The high elevation Upper Fraser snow pillows are averaging 86% of normal.

The Nechako snow water index is 95% of normal, unchanged from Jan 1st (and well below last year's level of 167%). The Mount Pondosy (1B08P), Mount Wells (1B01P) and Tahtsa Lake (1B02P) snow pillows are all 83-92% of normal. The Skins Lake snow course (1B05) is 109%, reduced substantially from 145% and Jan 1st.

 Middle and Lower Fraser

The Middle Fraser has a February 1st snow water index of 98% of normal. The Chilcotin and Fraser Plateau areas appear to have below normal snow (e.g., Nazko (1C08) = 88%, Big Creek (1C21) = 58%). Southern portions of the Middle Fraser are above normal (e.g., Green Mountain (1C12P) = 112%).

Following a cool and wet December and the cold January, the Lower Fraser snow water index for February 1st is 114% of normal, increased from 105% at Jan 1st. Wolverine Creek (1D13) is 120%, while the Chilliwack River (1D17P), Great Bear (1D15P) and Tenquille Lake (1D06P) snow pillows are 98%, 99%, and 106%, respectively. The Dog Mountain (3A10) snow course is at a new record for the date, at 168% of normal.

Thompson River Basin

The Thompson River basin has above normal snow water conditions at February 1st. The North Thompson snow water index is 122% of normal, while the South Thompson index is 107%. Low elevation snow appears to be near or slightly above normal for the date, reflecting the cold weather of the past 6-7 weeks. In both basins, basin snow water indices dropped in value from Jan 1st, reflecting the colder and drier than normal weather.

In the North Thompson basin, the Adams River (1E07) snow course is 119% of normal, and the Azure River (1E08P) and Kostal Lake (1E01P) snow pillows are 111% and 113%, respectively.

In the South Thompson basin, Enderby (1F04) is 102% of normal. The Park Mountain (1F03P) snow pillow is 90%. The Celista Mountain (1F06P) snow pillow located north of Shuswap Lake is estimated to be near 90% of normal.

In the Nicola basin, Lac Le Jeune Upper (1C25) is 88% of normal, a substantial increase from 61% at Jan 1st.

Columbia Basin

The Columbia basin snow index is 109% of normal, reduced from 116% at Jan 1st., The Upper Columbia tends to have better snow conditions than the Lower Columbia. For the Upper Columbia, most snow courses are in the 95-115% of normal range, with a low of 81% for Canoe River (2A01A) and a high of 123% for Goldstream (2A16). For the Lower Columbia, most snow courses are in the 80-95% range, with a low of 79% for Farron (2B02A) and a high of 95% for the Record Mountain (2B09).

 Kootenay Basin

Cranbrook, the Kootenay indicator climate station, received 108% of normal precipitation from November to January. The overall Kootenay snow water index is 93% of normal, a slight drop from Jan 1st. For the East Kootenay, values for individual snow survey sites range from a low of 75% at Thunder Creek (2C17) to a high of 114% at the Moyie Mountain snow pillow (2C10P). For the West Kootenay values are higher, with 97% at Nelson (2D04) and 108% at East Creek (2D08P). Low elevation snow is above normal in the West Kootenay but below normal in the East Kootenay.

Okanagan, Kettle, and Similkameen Basins 

The overall February 1 snow water index of 85% for the Okanagan-Kettle is well below normal. Some snow courses are very low, including Oyama Lake (2F19) at 64%, and Isintok Lake (2F11) at 59%. Mount Kobau (2F12) in the far south Okanagan is 77% of normal, an improvement from 50% at Jan 1st. The Brenda Mine (2F18P) snow pillow on the west side of the Okanagan valley is 94%. The Mission Creek (2F05P) snow pillow east of Kelowna is 79% of normal. The only measurement site that is above normal is Silver Star (2F10) at 108%.

In the Kettle River drainage, the Grano Creek (2E07P) snow pillow is 85% and Big White (2E03) is 73%.

Western portions of the Similkameen valley have slightly below normal snow conditions while eastern portions appear to be well below normal (similar to adjacent areas of the southern Okanagan) The overall February 1st snow water index is 76% of normal, reduced significantly from 89% at Jan 1st. The Blackwall Peak (2G03P) snow pillow is currently 95%. Lost Horse Mtn (2G04) and Missezula Mtn (2G05) are 46% and 69%, respectively.

 Vancouver Island and South Coastal Region

Snow packs on the Vancouver Island and Coastal regions are well above normal as of February 1st, and have increased significantly from January 1st. The Vancouver Island snow water index is 141% of normal (111% at Jan 1st), while the South Coast index is 133% of normal (113% at Jan 1st). On Vancouver Island, the Jump Creek (3B23P) snow pillow is 161% of normal, and the Forbidden Plateau (3B01) snow course is 157%. With the cold weather for the past 6-7 weeks, low elevation snow on Vancouver Island is particularly well developed. Elk River (3B04) at 270 metres elevation is 248% of normal.

On the South Coast, the Grouse Mountain (3A01) and Dog Mountain (3A10) snow courses are 152% and 168%, respectively. The Upper Squamish (3A25P) snow pillow is 113% of normal. Callaghan Creek (3A20), a 2010 Olympic venue location, is 125% of normal.

North East Region

Precipitation in the Peace has been above normal for November, December and January, and, so, snow accumulations have been generally greater than normal. The snow water index for the Peace River basin is 108% of normal at February 1st, increased from 102% at January 1st, but well below last year's level of 139%. Individual snow survey sites ranging from a low of 67% at Monkman Creek (4A20) to a high of 114% at Pine Pass (4A02).

Precipitation in the Liard River basin was below normal during November and December. For the Liard basin, snow water equivalencies range between 61% and 102%, with a basin average of 85%.

North West Region

The Skeena/Nass basins have a snow water index of 95% of normal for February 1st, reduced from 103% at January 1st. For the three snow courses with the longest periods of record, Hudson Bay Mountain (4B03A), located near Smithers, is 98%, Johanson Lake (4B02), located in the north-east corner of the basin, is 89%, and Kidprice Lake (4B01) is 90%. The Lu Lake (4B15P) and Tsai Creek (4B17P) snow pillows are 106% and 107% of normal, respectively. Western portions of the Skeena basin appear to have a lot of snow, with Terrace A (4B13A) at 161% of normal.

Based on a very limited survey, the Stikine basin appears to be below normal. The Kinaskan Lake (4D11P) and Wade Lake (4D14P) snow pillows are 62% and 105% of normal, respectively. Iskut (4D02) is 63% of normal.


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Comments

Do these predictions take into effect that Alcan can open the gates anytime they please?
Probably not supposed to notice that little fact camoose!
But you do have a very good point!
If you ski, snowboard, or sled in the mountains I think you would agree, there's more snow than normal in them there hills.
I do, and there is!
I think it may just be a bit too early to predict what the stream flows will do in the spring!