Uh-huh, and how much of this figure includes whole-log exports?

Can you not read? Or do you not understand what the term “lumber” means?

It does not include panelboards, if any, raw logs, pellets, etc.

Read he full picture of BC Forest Products exports at the link:
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/ftp/het/external/!publish/web/exports/Exports-Report-201310.pdf

Your favourite logs are included in that report with logs being 6.8% of the total exports of 9.69 billion to the end of October.

Softwood lumber is up to 46.7% of that value.

Pulp and Paper is down.

Of course, the thing to keep in mind is what is shown in the graphs. In 2000 the annual total forest product exports were $16.6 billion. In 2009 it was $7.6 billion. That has climbed back to $10.2 billion in 2012.just

The US moved from $9.44billion in 2000 to $4.34 billion in 2012. China was at $0.57 billion in 2000 and was at $3.11billion in 2012. So one has dropped down by more than 50% and the other has increased almost 6 fold.

BTW, logs have moved from 2% of the total $16.6 billion market in 2000 to 5.7% of a $10.2billion market.

Remember, we have shown that we can produce $16.6 billion of forest products. However, the world is only buying $10.2 billion.

Of that, the market for logs is the only one which has increased. However, it is a very small component of the market. In addition, the coastal companies and workers have said they would rather export logs than export nothing and shut down forestry operations even further on the coast.

So, please understand the dynamics involved.

BTW, you have the link now to where you can find more substantial data on what is happening to the market for our forest products. Mark it down and explore it yourself.

Talking to laid off sawmill workers on vancouver island about raw log exports will let you know that they aren’t too happy about raw log exports.

Imagine how it must feel to be laid off your job so you can watch barge after barge of raw logs being shipped out.

Yes, I can read Gus, both on and between the lines.

Thanks for the link to the bigger picture.

This brings the post into much better perspective at least in my eye.

“Talking to laid off sawmill workers on vancouver island about raw log exports will let you know that they aren’t too happy about raw log exports.”

There are more than just sawmill workers working in the forest industry. The island had some older, inefficient mills, the same as the east coast of the USA. As I understand it, they were not able to stay in business, with lower lumber prices and fewer sales.

There continued to be a market for logs. Those who logged, those who transported the logs, and those who replanted were able to keep some of the workers employed.

It is difficult to keep everyone happy.

I should point out down in the lower mainland a lot of forest tenures are either private owned, on first nations land or are on private land.. There are no export limits on the above tenures for raw logs. And why should there be? If your a private land owner and want to sell your timber and cant get a good price for it or find a local buyer? Let the free market run..

Wow Gus, you have quite the bee in your bonnet, given your comments on palomino’s post. I, too, am fuzzy on the distinction in terminology between raw logs and lumber as I think most lay people would be. Perhaps to those in the industry this is very clear, but I thought it a bit rude to jump down palomino’s throat.
That aside, I am troubled to witness the continued rape and pillage of our countrie’s resources, be it raw logs, bitumen, coal, or grain. It might be excusable 100 years ago when we were a fledgling country, but nothing more than an embarrassment in 2013.

Maybe Gus would like to spend some time and try and determine the value for the lumber sold, versus the volume.

As an example the USA is first in volume of softwood lumber exports at 52.6%, with 48% of the value of exports.

China/Hong Kong has 30.6% of the volume with 26.5% of the value.

Japan with 10.4% of the volume has 15.97% of the value.

To me with my limited mathematical expertise, it looks like China is a huge volume buyer, but does not pay as good as the USA,or Japan.

So, can I help it if in a community that has sawmills right in the middle of town and sees trucks rumbling through town with logs on it as well as trucks and railway cars with typically white wrapped lumber on them, that people do not know the difference between the two?

I mean, PG is not exactly the center of Victoria where one can probably go through decades without seeing either of those.

I suppose that using this medium, when one really does not know the level of understanding of the person posting.

Perhaps there are some on here who do not know the difference between water, ice and snow.

Palopu, I really do not care what quality of goods we buy from China.

Just imagine yourself a Chinese person sitting at a similar blog in China and someone posting that all that China sells to Canada are mainly cheap T-shirts and trinkets rather than manufactured cars.

Those in the USA and Japan cannot say that.

The other thing is that we do not make much higher end products from our wood such as in made in other countries who make windows, flooring, furniture, etc. from their wood based industries.

Perhaps take a look at what kind of wood products Sweden and similar countries export to China.

People might be surprised at the $/m3 value there is in a pine or pine veneer desk, table, chair, bureau, etc. there is in Ikea furniture.

If we do not make it, we cannot sell it. We can only sell what we make. Sadly, as cutbanks54 laments, we are having a tough time coming out of the rut of selling off our resources without adding much value.

This may come as a shocker to you and some others Palopu, but here are the volumes of lumber as well as logs which were exported out of BC and the price we sold them for per cubic metre.

lumber————————-

200025,220,000$272.40
200126,300,000$250.57
200228,110,000$225.54
200329,000,000$183.10
200432,110,000$214.57
200533,300,000$188.29
200632,830,000$178.19
200728,250,000$168.85
200821,210,000$170.20
200917,820,000$154.32
201020,850,000$170.74
201122,840,000$167.69
201224,160,000$173.84

That is a 36.2% drop over 13 vyears

logs —————

20002,340,000$145.30
20012,810,000$131.67
20023,970,000$130.98
20034,050,000$113.58
20043,460,000$124.28
20054,770,000$111.11
20064,310,000$113.69
20073,340,000$110.78
20082,620,000$106.87
20092,460,000$101.63
20103,740,000$98.93
20115,450,000$108.26
20125,710,000$87.57

that is a 39.7% cut in 13 years.

So, by mechanizing, and getting rid of the small mills as well as the number of workers, and buying most of that high end production equipment and technology from our Scandinavian and Japanese friends, since we make very little of that ourselves, we were able to reduce our prices to compete with other countries in selling our wares.

As some people say, a race to the bottom.

So, do we think we can do better with tar sands and natural gas? That is about all we have left before we have to start using our smarts rather than picking the low hanging fruit till it is not there anymore.

So, Harper and the likes of him fiddled while Rome burned.

Of course, we could add to that Green fiddled while PG burned. ;-)

What bee in whose bonnet?

I mean if people do not start to get serious about getting some bees in their bonnets and do something, well, we have only ourselves to blame.

China is not our problem. We are our problem. We are the masters of our own destiny, not some foreign country.

Are there any bright lights out there who can predict what the next 13 years will bring with respect to the lumber export sales from BC when the feedstock is going to have a major fall down due to the effects of the MPB? BC won’t be the darling of the Canadian lumber industry anymore. We better start increasing the unit value of the stuff we export or else the industry will not exist much longer anywhere near the levels of 2000 and previous to that.

And people wonder why LNG is being touted as a contender to being a saviour. At least someone is trying, albeit with a continuing natural resources bent.

Ben really needs to change the name of this site!

“Are there any bright lights out there who can predict what the next 13 years will bring with respect to the lumber export sales from BC when the feedstock is going to have a major fall down due to the effects of the MPB?”

====================================

Apparently there are no such bright lights sitting as a Provincial MLA or Federal MP, seeing as how we’ve yet to hear any of them sound such an alarm.

Maybe they just don’t want to upset or be honest with the base . . .

We survived the last recession mainly because of Russia imposing a 25% export tax on logs to China.

This allowed us to sell our MPB timber and logs relatively cheap and help to offset the operation of our mills. Considering the excellent stumpage rates that BC mills got for the MPB timber was another big factor that kept the industry alive.

What comes next??

1. Russia has now become a member of the WTO, and although the export tax on logs is still in effect, they are beginning to export more logs to China. In addition they are also manufacturing more lumber in Russia, and exporting it to China.

2. The MPB timber supply cannot last much longer, and a lot of timber will become useless.

3. The USA/Japan will continue to be our best customer for quality lumber exports, however I doubt if China will stay in the mix if prices stay high. Once they have depleted the **cheap** MPB lumber, and logs, they will ramp up imports from Russia.

So, we have a problem looming in the not to distant future.

Other than a few mines, and some agriculture, plus gas and oil in the Peace River area, North Central BC is really dependent on lumber. lf more lumber mills shut down, and perhaps another pulp mill, we are in serious trouble.

What new industry could we expect to locate in Prince George, and what would it produce.

We have a serious problem of being thousands of miles from Major markets, and having an expensive work force.

We will be very fortunate if we can just maintain the status quo, for the next 10/20 years.

“We better start increasing the unit value of the stuff we export or else the industry will not exist much longer anywhere near the levels of 2000 and previous to that.”
——————————————–

The industry will not exist at those levels (of employment) regardless. Best we get off the ‘jobs’ kick and find a more sensible way to distribute incomes. We’re on a one way road to nowhere if we don’t.

If there were a broader market for value added products that would pay a price for them sufficient to recover the costs of their making, plus an additional profit for the extra effort, someone would be producing them. There isn’t. Not one into which the necessary volume of turnover to actually pay the bills can be continually fed. Commoditising what are now the few successful specialties already being made will just kill off everyone trying to make them.

When the timber supply was restricted due to environmentalist pressure in the US Pacific northwest States, they did NOT go to ‘value added’. The mills that survived, and the few new ones that have been built, simplified their product lines and specialised in items that would turnover the fastest.

They concentrated on finding the shortest length of time between cutting the tree and marketing the end product, and whatever that product was, that’s what they made.

In most instances there it was that most basic of basic lumber commodities, the lowly 8 ft. 2×4 stud. The reason? They sell, in volume. Quickly. Value added products do not.

And any ‘fall down’ in the later stages of any value added product’s manufacture all too often leads to substantial value SUBTRACTED. Since all the additional costs put into that product to that point are then lost.

We sell lumber by the 1000 board feet, the current 52 week average is 358.00 #2 or better (x conversion rate of .6461 for 2×4) or 231.30 per m3 in US dollars

Panel prices 9.5mm (3/8) 357.00 per 52 week average 1000 board feet (x conversion rate of 1.13 for 9.5mm) or 403.41 US dollars per m3

7/16 OSB 316.00 per 52 week average 1000 board feet (x conversion rate of .968 for 7/16) or 305.00 per m3 in US dollars

Harderblog:
Lumber – In Oct 2013 China imported 2,170,000 m3 of lumber at an average cost of $286 per m3
Logs – In Oct 2013 China imported 3,680,000 m3 of logs at an average price of $201 per m3

At the current North American lumber prices and the current China price of 286.00, how do we get down to 170.00? Export Duty? Export Taxes?