Federal Election? Layton Holds the Answer
By 250 News
Tuesday, November 01, 2005 11:30 AM
It is the Federal NDP who hold the balance of power and who keep the Paul Martin Liberals in power. So all eyes are on NDP Leader Jack Layton to see what his next move will be.
In the wake of the first report from Justice John Gomery, Layton says his party will give careful condsiderayion on its next move, but he says he has advised the government there needs to be key work on several issues, including, pensions, EI reform, and medicare. all items the NDP laid out as conditional for the NDP's continued support.
Layton says if he doesn't see "significant work" on those key issues then "Canadians may have an opportunity sooner rather than later to make a decision."
Layton says there are no motions pending before the House this week that could topple the government
The House is not sitting next week, so if there is a move to topple the government through a non-confidence vote, it would mean any resulting election would happen some time around Boxing Day.
There would be no advantage on waiting till after the Christmas break because the second part of the Gomery report is expected around the First of February, and Prime minister Martin has promised there would be an election called with 30 days of that report.
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Stephen Harper, of course, is still chomping at the bit. He certainly thinks he is likely to be the Country's choice for Prime Minister if an election were to be called now. I am not so sure. I still think there is a lot of distrust for the new Conservative Party coalition, and Harper in particular. His behaviour throughout this whole affair has not played well, in my view, and he looks very much the opportunist rather than the statesman. In addition, his use of personal attacks on civil servants to get at Martin have not gone down well, now that it is known the accusations made by his party were not true. Destroying people's reputations for crass political advantage is not the Canadian way, or should not be, and I think most Canadians are offended by it, except Harper's supporters of course.
Gilles Duceppe, has a different agenda which focusses on Quebec. I suspect an election may increase his support somewhat, but since his party has an overwhelming number of Quebec seats already it is difficult to see what major advantage he could get. One can presume that winning every Quebec seat may lead to a new Referendum, but apart from that all he might gain would be consolidation of the Bloc's current position.
The NDP under Jack Layton are in an interesting position. So far he has followed a course which fitted in with what the majority of Canadians appeared to want, that is to wait and see what Gomery said. In the process he has been able to get some of his party's agenda adopted. Now we know what Gomery has said, the situation may change. If, as Layton says, there is no opportunity for the government to be brought down by a non-confidence motion within the next two weeks, then waiting for a while to consider the situation may be reasonable. The down side is that waiting to think about a problem easily can be seen as an inability to make up one's mind, and that may be a danger for him. On the other hand, perhaps a bigger danger would be precipitant action. Harper badly wants Martin's government forcibly brought down, presumably for the political advantage that would come from fighting a campaign against a "defeated" party. However, he is impotent to do so by himself. If Layton decides to join the Conservative-Separatist coalition to bring Martin down, he may well end up being the one blamed as he is seen to have the balance of power in this scenario.
Personally, I am not sure what the best course of action for parliament would be. Like many Canadians I would like to see the whole report before an election. I would be interested to read others' opinions on this.