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CMHC Predicts Turn Around In Housing Market in 2010

By 250 News

Tuesday, May 19, 2009 08:01 AM

Housing starts are expected to decline to 141,900 for 2009, but increase to 150,300 for 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) second quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition* report.

“The decline in housing starts in 2009 can be attributed to several factors, including the current economic climate, increased competition from the existing home market, and the impact of strong house price growth between 2002 and 2007” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC. “However, housing market activity will begin to strengthen in 2010 as the Canadian economy recovers, bringing housing starts more in line with demographic fundamentals over the forecast period”.

Existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®)1, are expected to decline to 357,800 units in 2009 from 433,990 in 2008, but increase to 386,100 units in 2010. The average MLS® price is also expected to decrease to $283,100 in 2009 and to stabilize in 2010.


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Comments

Does anyone still put any credence into predictions made by CMHC, real estate boards or realtors themselves?

Houses will start to sell again when more people have jobs and money. How the CMHC and realtors are able to figure out when that is, when every "expert" in the world hasn't been able to, is beyond me.

"Houses will begin to sell again when more people have jobs and money".
Exactly NMG.
It is hard to put much credence in anything CMHC has to say, considering they are in the business of selling mortgages.
I am also skeptical of anything put out by their buddies, the B.C.Real Estate Board!
The economy and the labour market will dictate what happens and when!
These guys are all wizards!
More speculative Ideology in order to get things moving.
True dat!
I agree, we in Prince George now live in a government town, where 40% of the workforce works for one form of government or another. City of Prince George, Northern Health, Health care, Social programs, school district, university, etc. Thus we get to have our economy a bit more stabilized than 25 years ago. Thus we become less effected than Terrace or Mackenzie, when the resource industry gets beat up.

Thus over time, our housing will rise, because of this little bubble we live in.
Prince George, still has all the amenities of the larger centers in its weaker form. but we have something to build from. It is still a cheap place to raise a family.

200k in Vancouver will barely get you a bachelor suite. 200k in Kelowna might get you a one bedroom condo. 200k in Prince George gets you a house with a back yard.

400k in Vancouver will get you two bedroom condo, 400k in Kelowna will get you a 60 year old house that needs 150k of upgrading. A 400k in Prince George will get you a 1800 sf home, with double garage, a back yard and a space to put in a basement suite.

So, we may whine about it, but for young people starting a family, you have chance to own you house, and still have money and time left over to enjoy the great outdoors. So lets be thankful for all that we have.
YOu are right he spoke. I not only own the house I live in, but also own a rental property. That is something I could never do on the lower mainland on what I make.
Exactly, Our kids can not wait till the day they graduate from high school and leave the stink town. But once they get to the big smoke and have to pay for their own way and a kid is on its way. They start coming back. Why because, they know that they can raise their families with disposable income on a working mans wage.
The sad thing about all these people that work for the government is that they tend to be those types of people who vote for communism. That was the good thing before, bunch a red necks. Where, we don't wanna waste our time listening to a bunch of belly achers, or set up another #$@%## committee.

Wonder what ever did happen to Mayor Dans committee to review redundant committee's
Oh great! Now Mayor Dan will see these comments and raise our taxes even more. It is very hard to run a city that you THINK is as large as Vancouver with small city funds. So shhhhh everyone! LOL
"The sad thing about all these people that work for the government is that they tend to be those types of people who vote for communism"

Proven by the fact that PG just elected Liberal MLA's?
Yep, there is a few government people that votes Liberal. Thats a good thing.
My thoughts exactly CaringSoul. A small town with big city dreams.
Is not going to happen. People still do not want to come here no matter what hype and incentives you dish out.
Thank you for the positive comments about Prince George. No city is perfect. I've resided in major cities in Canada and the US and I chose Prince George. Why? Because of the lifestyle and especially the people...there are awesome people here! Relationships are a priority in my book and PG rates high in this department!
The reality is that PG has been in terminal decline now for most of the last 20 years. I would bet the city population has declined every year save for one or two out of the last twenty years... scary when one considers our municipal debt load has increased nearly 10fold in that same period of decline.

The politicians and realtor's have sold us just about everything over this period of decline... we are on the cusp of a major boom... the container port will make us boom overnight, oil and gas companies are buying up retail space in PG and drilling in the dark on the outskirts... PG sits on one of the worlds biggest oil reserves... mining is taking off... or my favorite Walmart is setting up in PG because they know something about our future boom that the rest of us don't yet know.

The realtor's have used these speculative hype stories and more to make sales. The reality is that the city is downsizing in population and up sizing in municipal debt killing future competitiveness in attracting new business to a town that will tax new business to pay for yesterdays spending.