Clear Full Forecast

Huge Potential On Horizon For BC Mills

By 250 News

Friday, December 10, 2010 03:56 AM

Prince George, B.C. - With the volume of forestry product exports to Asian markets reaching a new milestone this fall, B.C.'s Forests Minister says there is the potential for "an additional six mills' worth of production going into China next year."

In releasing news yesterday that 40.2-percent of our total exports went to China and Japan in September -- almost equal to the volume going to the U.S. (42.5%) -- Bell says, "We're expecting next year potentially four-billion board feet of lumber to go to China, that compares to about 2.6-billion board feet this year." With each interior mill producing 250-thousand board feet, that forecast would mean a huge production boost for B.C..

Bell is attributing much of the volume growth to containerization and, he says, the expansion at the Port of Prince Rupert has been key.

"It's been a huge advantage and I would attribute a good chunk of the growth to the fact we now have Prince Rupert available to us," says Bell. "It really has created a strategic linkage to China and Japan."

The Forests Minister says the cost of transporting a thousand board feet of lumber into Shanghai, China is about the same as shipping it to the U.S. eastern seaboard -- about 60-dollars per thousand board feet.  So while the Asian market seems geographically distant, it's actually 'very close' from a cost perspective.  "And having Prince Rupert there and the increased capacity that's available has been key to us building those exports."

Bell says, in addition, he remains committed to having a mill in the northwest re-open, or a new one built.  "We are in discussions with a number of proponents that are interested in the potential of a sawmill in the region."


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Comments

A sawmill will never be viable in the Northwest without options for its split off products like wood chips, shavings, hog fuel, sawdust, trim blocks ect.

A pellet plant would help, but its the wood chips that bring in the real split off product money for the saw mills that absorbs so much of their operating costs. Wood chips need a pulp mill within 300km, or shipping become prohibitive... the Northwest needs a pulp mill, or they have no basis for a forest industry of any significance.

IMO the solution... paper cups for lemonade stands in South East Asia. Hundreds of millions of people paying a penny in built in deposit per cup... that in turn is paid out to collectors of used cups at a depot for shredding and eventual use in conjunction with pellet fired co-gen plants burning mixtures of organic waste and coal in hybrid electric generation. Something that would be a big sell in isolated island communities.

Think Tim Hortons of Asia with cold lemonade or ice tea rather than hot coffee, and rice instead of donuts... a half billion cups used daily of eco friendly pine beetle killed trees... a penny a cup is $5 million a day in revenue for the producer, and another penny a cup is $5 million dollars a day for the people that collect the cups as a source of low income revenue for those in need who can be saved from beggary. Any cups that escape the collectors are simply biodegradable and contribute to the soil.

A half billion cups a day would keep a pulp mill in the Northwest going full production as long as its hot and people are thirsty for a cold cup of beverage in the target markets. A pulp mill at full production enables a forest industry in the Northwest where shipping location and proximity to resources become a competitive advantage in the long term.

Easily doable IMO.
The biggest risk is Russians. They have lots of timber and its right there. We have developed the market but they have significant advantages over us if they were able to get some mills up and running. Its a great short to mid term solution. Long term there are issues.
they dont want to deal with russia,bc and canada are big buyers of chinese parts toys etc,in return they buy our wood which is is more compettive then the russians .
We can't have this...quick, let's vote in the NDP.
Good point Pgguru.

All we need to do is sell oil to the chinese. Lets say yes to the pipeline, and then we can all sit around and collect fat government checks.
The chinese have been buying wood from Russia forever. They have an excellent quality larch, similar to our fir. Russia last year put on an export tax, thereby raising the price considerably. Of course we don't tax resources leaving our country, that would be un-British Columbian.
As usual Bell makes no mention of the price being paid for this lumber by China.

Lets keep in mind that 90% of the lumber shipped to China is utility grade, and used for the most part for concrete forms. We ship less lumber to Japan, however we get much more revenue. The mill that recently opened in Quesnel ships all its production to China, and it is mill run lumber. (Not planed) I suspect that they are shipping cheap lumber to China to cover their operating costs, and are using the chips in the pulp mill process, and the pellet process.

In any event at least they have a market for this lumber. Insofar as shipping to Prince Rupert is concerned this is just a bunch of BS. You could just as easily ship this lumber to Vancouver and load it in Containers. It matters little from a freight point of view if it goes through
Prince Rupert or Vancouver. It is 500 Miles from Prince George either way.

The fact of the matter is, after these containers are loaded in Pr Rupert the ship goes to Vancouver and then on the US to off load and load. So there is no savings in freight or in transit time.

Do you think Rustads could reopen ?? or is it history?
its about to happen!
not going to happen, no fiber, sorry :-(
think again mythoughts,ill personally bet u 1000 bucks.
Russia is in talks with the EU to drop
the 25% tax Russia imposes on raw log exports. It's going to happen.
too late china does not want to deal with them no more,u get slaped once u do\nt go back
"Do you think Rustads could reopen ?? or is it history?"

Shes History.. No fibre suply in the pg district to feed it.As well they have already started parting some of the mill out. Rustads Div heavily relyed on timber from north of fort st james at Lovell cove and Minarette which were remote rail camps. The rail access up there is pretty much shot now as well CN has started to tear some of the track out and has scrapped alot of the log bulkhead cars.

At this point it would be wild speculation to say rustads would open again in this current market. The odds are against it.
northman, its not a wild speculation and the market in china is nothing but hot,canfor will add another china mill gauranteed. for fibre,ainsworth has some plans to build a new plywood plant in p.g.still lots of fibre and another decade some new growth fibre goes into play.
If Canfor is not going to reopen Rustads , they should be giving their employees, severance packages like they did with Clear Lake.I hope we get an new plywood plant and I hope Rustads reopen.
Rustads has always been a high cost mill. Canfor has been trying to find a way to shut it down for years, so I expect now that they have, they will not re-open it.

I suspect that Canfor would go to two or three shifts at their other mills before they actually re-opened Rustads. Dont forget that they are shutting down Clear Lake at the end of this year. Why would they do that, if they thought their would be a big push for lumber.

There is no money in selling lumber to China. They pay next to nothing for what they buy. Once the market picks up, Japan, and the USA will be our big customers, and China will revert to buying cheap lumber somewhere else.

There is not a single log in Rustads yards. The day I see logging trucks and rail cars unloading logs, will be the day that I will beleive they are going to re-open. Until then, I say it aint gonna happin.
bitter...I totally agree, they should get their severance, but good luck at getting that. The Winton Global mill has been down 2.5 years and they still don't have their severance and there's no indication that they will for a long time, if ever. Clear Lake got severance because Canfor has said it is a permanent shutdown and will not reopen. It's also a non union mill. Winton Global & Rustads are indefinite shutdowns meaning they may reopen so they don't get severance. It's the way the contract is written. Blame that one on your union negotiators.
palopu,if there is no money in china why did conifex buy 2 mills and aslo spend big money on upgrading them,both mills are all for china only and confex is also planning to add a second shift to mkenzie in the first qaurter of 2011.canfor has employees in china showing the people how to build with wood and its finally taking off.canfor is not going to watch other companies snap up there hard work ,which has taken many years.canfor also has a special china website.so trust me there also working on a bussiness plan to re open vavenby.
Would you be willing to speculate your own $$ on the fact that canfor will re open rustad.. Ive been a stock investor and venture capitilist for a few years now and all the signs of a profitable return are not in the cards for the re opening of rustad..In corporation the size of canfor the highest cost is hiring and retaining employees.As far as conifex buying two mills in a depresed lumber market is speculation in anticipation that lumber prices will go up. They got a good deal for the mills so the risk has been downgraded but the risk is still there. Its the same concept as buying a house in anticipation to flip it.Conifex has nothing to loose if this speculation goes sideways because the share holers and venture capitalists will inherit the debt.

As well we are dealing with a housing and construction bubble in china which is fuled by ivnestment bankers which could pop at any time in the future once lenders start defaulting on loans. This would make the US housing market/sup prime bubble look like picnic.

As well putting another mill online the size of rustad will only dilute the lumber price even more which puts a constraint future higer profits for the company.

In the end the market will be the merchant of truth.. Right now the market does not want imperial dimension lumber.

As they would say on Dragons Den.."Im Out"!
give me ur email ill bet u 1000
I hope you are right pgguru . I think Canfor has no class to give one their mills they are closeing down compsation and not Rustads Its not about unions its about people.I guess big bussiness has no heart, come on Jimmy , Its Christmas.
They need Compensation , wrote to fast.
I suspect that the reasons that these mills can sell cheap lumber to China is because

A. It reduces their operating costs, and allows them to produce chips, and hog fuel for the pulp mills and sawdust for the pellet plants.

B. That they are logging beetle killed trees and are probably getting the trees for next to nothing from the Government. The Government cannot reduce the stumpage fee's on lumber shipped to the USA because of the Softwood Lumber Agreement, however there is no such problem in shipping to China.

C. When the price of lumber drops below $300.00 per 1000 FBM lumber shipped to the USA is subject to a 15% export tax. This tax in not applicable on lumber shipped to China.

So there are a number of reasons why you can sell cheap lumber to China, and this is a good way to get rid of the beetle kill. (Acutally a number of huge American Customers do not want beetle killed lumber, because it has hair line cracks) Once the supply of beetle killed timber diminishes, because of logging, or rot, and when the US housing market rebounds (When?), then we will go back to shipping the majority of our lumber to the high priced markets of Japan, and USA.