Serious Climactic Changes Ahead for the North

By Peter Ewart

Environment Canada map  of temperature anomoly forecast

Wine tours of the renowned Salmon Valley vineyards?  The Prince George Peach Festival?  Apple blossom time in Mackenzie?  According to relatively modest scientific predictions, by 2080, people in Prince George will be able to grow grapes, plums and peaches if current temperature global warming trends continue.   So said Jenny Fraser, from the Provincial Ministry of the Environment, in her presentation to the “Communities and Climate Change” workshop at the Civic Centre Wednesday.

The all day workshop brought together about 70 people from across the region to “discuss impacts and adaptations” to the serious climate change that is taking place in BC and throughout the world.  Sponsors included McGregor Model Forest Association, UNBC, Natural Resources Canada, and FORREX (Forest Research Extension Partnership).  The workshop was chaired by former city councilor Dan Rogers, of Concept Design, who stressed the importance of raising community awareness about climate change and “building tools to cope with the inevitable changes.”

Dr. Danny Harvey, a Geography professor from the University of Toronto, began his presentation by commenting that “the human race is in big trouble” because of greenhouse gas build up and the resulting effects on climate.  In the last two hundred years, greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane have built up drastically as a result of human activity.  In fact, the last 50 years have been warmer than anytime in the last 1000 years.  His point was driven home by the record breaking temperatures across BC the day before the workshop.

According to Dr. Harvey’s forecast, BC is projected to have not only higher temperatures but also significantly higher rainfall in the years to come, accompanied by further retreat of mountain glaciers.  Other parts of North America, especially South Western United States could experience severe droughts.  He says that 95% of the scientists who are studying climate change believe that pollutants and emissions caused by human activity are driving this climate change.  In contrast, the other 5%, who he claims are financed by the oil and gas industry, say that fossil fuels are not the problem but rather changes in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth.

Brian Frenkel, Vanderhoof City Councilor, discussed a pilot study that Vanderhoof has commissioned to assess “vulnerability to climate change.”  He pointed out that climate change will result in shorter logging seasons in this area, as well as more frequent and severe forest fires fueled by the vast expanses of beetle killed pine.  Furthermore, the change is going to be so drastic we may see our softwood forest base move to a hardwood and grasslands base.  To adapt to the problems that are coming, communities need to combine local knowledge and experience with scientific expertise.  Municipal governments will have to deal with everything from economic and infrastructure changes to water and energy supply, public works operations, transportation decay, land use planning, public health and emergency preparedness.

Besides the pine beetle problem, the City of Prince George could get hit by major floods as a result of runoff caused by climate change.  Dave Dyer, Chief Engineer, City of Prince George, also cautioned that road surfaces in the city will get worse because of the freeze / thaw cycle that is more frequent with warmer winters.  On the positive side, he pointed out that the City’s initiatives in community energy, whereby biomass will be used to heat water pipes in the downtown will eliminate an estimated 6500 tons of greenhouse gases per year.

Who needs training to address climate change?  According to Eric Rapaport, UNBC professor, “everyone” does, and he suggested that education needs to take place from school age children and upwards.  He stressed climate change will result in complex problems that will need to be solved.  For example, following up on the comments by Dave Dyer, Dr. Rapaport commented that, if the Nechako does happen to flood again, there could be huge problems in the CN yards adjacent to First Avenue.  Other scientists have checked the soil in the railyards and have found them to be “very contaminated”.  Any flooding will introduce these contaminants into the Fraser River drainage system, and could seriously affect fish and other species.

The Yukon is another area that is being affected by climate change.  Roger Brown, who works for native organizations in the Yukon, explained that the Yukon is currently suffering from a major outbreak of the spruce bark beetle which is devastating the large spruce forests of the territory.  Further climate change could result in permafrost melting, forest fires and landslides, as well as milder winters and drier summers.  However, he points out, the region has experienced huge changes in the past.  For example, one of the largest volcanoes in the last 2000 years was the eruption of the Mount Churchill volcano (around 800 A.D.)  which resulted in major climactic changes.  Scientists now believe that the Navajo and Apache native peoples originally lived in the Yukon but were forced to adapt by moving to the Southern part of what we now call the United States.

Elizabeth Anderson, from the recently formed Omineca Beetle Action Coalition, talked about how the relationship between the mountain pine beetle outbreak and climate change was not clear, although many believe there is a link.  Other possible causes of the pine beetle outbreak include forest management policies, such as harvesting techniques and fire suppression, as well as a natural predisposition of the pine beetle to spread because of a lack of natural barriers.  She stressed that, in tackling the pine beetle problem, the Action Coalition believes that we need to focus on creating a bright future by “leveraging our strengths” and “making informed decisions.”

There are many initiatives around the province that are addressing the climate change problem.  Robin Sydneysmith, who is the coordinator of the Canadian Climate Impacts & Adaptation Research Network, listed a number of these initiatives, including a guidebook that the McGregor Model Forest Project is putting together.

After the presentations concluded, attendees to the workshop participated in a series of brainstorming sessions aimed at developing ideas about adapting to climate change in the North and developing long range plans for communities.  According to Dan Adamson of the McGregor Model Forest project, a summary of the workshop and brainstorming sessions will be put together and distributed to participants in the months ahead.  Mr. Adamson also discussed the need for a northern climate change network that will allow participants to bring relevant climactic information to the communities of the North.

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