No Matter How You Slice it , Forestry Sets the Table In This Region: One Man's Opinion

Thursday, October 11, 2007 03:44 AM

The picture painted on Opinion250 earlier this week by forest executives from both sides of the border, was not a rosey one for any community that relies on the forest industry.

Now there will be all sorts of folks who will say that Prince George is not going to suffer because we are more diversified and forestry is not our main stay.

They might want to watch the emerging picture in the economy to get a better handle on what we can expect. Whether you want to say that this region is only 50% (or for that matter 40% forestry dependent) if you take that out of the economy it won’t be too long before the economy finds its way to the toilet.

We can clammer all we want that mining is going to take over where forestry has been. There is one slight problem, it takes about 10 to 11 years to get a mine up and running, and we don’t have anywhere near that amount of time.

Some people keep chirping that gas and oil are going to be our salvation. Well you might want to ask just how many wells have been drilled in this region? The short answer is none. The oil and gas companies will be quickly to tell you that there is no drilling program planned even with the government prepared to sweeten the pie.

So perhaps we had better have a real look at where we are heading. If the forest jobs and related spending is cut in half, then the fall out will have a very resounding effect on this region.

Oh yes and for those that say we are a one horse town that needs to diversify, Great idea, now put it to paper. We have had lots of great ideas on how we should make our wood more value added, but at last count, who is left in the business of valued added forest products in spite of some very heavy subsidizing by government?

We may be headed in the right direction with our efforts to change the way we make a living in this region. Reality dictates and it is saying long before you are able to get your ducks in a row the shoe will have dropped, and that is what the forest giants are trying to tell us.

I’m Meisner and that’s one man’s opinion.

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Posted on Thursday, October 11, 2007 03:44 AM in Views by Ben Meisner

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Comments

Posted by: metalman on October 11 2007 7:57 AM

Never mind Ben, the performing arts centre and the university will sustain us!
metalman.

Posted by: owl on October 11 2007 8:44 AM

"We can clammer all we want that mining is going to take over where forestry has been. There is one slight problem, it takes about 10 to 11 years to get a mine up and running, and we don�t have anywhere near that amount of time."

And there are no guarantees. While the price of metals may be up right now, they might not be when the mine is ready to produce. It too, is a cyclical market.

150,000 manufacturing jobs lost in Ontario in the last 4 years is what I think I heard this morning in the wake of the election results there.

Very few, if any, industries, other than such services as health, are immune from cyclical ups and downs. That is the very reason of diversifying. Diversification will more often provide a smoother ride through the peaks and valleys. In my view, the more we invest in diversification, the more we will improve our future.

Yes, forestry has been, is, and will continue to be an important and even major part of our economy even if it will be in the toilet for a few years followed by a few decades of reduced feedstock.

So, we have two options. We sit back and pout: �Mommy, the bad man came and took all my toys� and wait for mommy to help us, or we do something, and wean ourselves from mommy.

Posted by: northman on October 11 2007 8:48 AM

There are plenty of small business oportunitys in this reigon to utilize the beetle timber and sustain the economy. And this would be saving grace for our area but the government desk jockeys in vancouver and victoria that make the rules dont have a clue whats goin on here. As long as they keep bending over backwards for large corporations like canfor, then continue on with business as usuall without diversifying the forest tenure administration and stumpage rates to utilize the dead trees then we will be in for the problems everyone is predicting.

Posted by: owl on October 11 2007 8:56 AM

Oh, and how is Ontario doing with the loss of 150,000 manufacturing jobs?

If we say there are 6,000 direct forestry jobs in the PG region and use a population of the region of 80,000 and say that those forestry jobs are a mainstay of the region, then those 150,000 manufacturing jobs lost in Ontario would be the mainstay of a population of 2 million.

Again, how is Ontario doing? Quite well. The economy is sufficiently diversified that the effects of those job losses are barely felt other than in �one industry� towns.

http://www.2ontario.com/facts/fact02.asp

There is a lesson to be learned.

Posted by: kevin1006 on October 11 2007 10:43 AM

The first wrong assumption, and most important, is that PG and area must grow and expand, no matter what it takes. This is the first evil of European Capitalism and why it is exactly the perfect symbol for cancer: Capitalism must have growth to survive; so does cancer. Capitalism consumes everything in it's path without thought or care to effects in order to achieve this endless growth; so does cancer. Like cancer, capitalism has no long range thought or care as to what it is doing to it's host or what that bodes for itself in the long run. Cancer, being mindless to anything but growth in the end kills itself by killing it's host; Capitalism is obsessed with money worship to the point that it is unaware and uncaring that it is killing it's host, the Earth.

This whole issue is not about PG or BC or even Canada. This is about our planet and how we humans are going to live. Looking for eternal growth on a finite world is not just illogical....it's insanity.

Stop looking for eternal growth and start looking for ways we can sustain a healthy community without eating the planet alive.

Posted by: Harbinger on October 11 2007 5:28 PM

Losing forestry jobs? Why not do what others do? Ask Ottawa to build a tax centre here. That would create jobs. I predict after or during the Olympics (am I allowed to write that O word without infringing on their copyright?) Victoria is gonna announce that they are going to Ottawa and get on their case and open up oil and gas exploration off our coast. No forestry, a few mines ain't gonna cut it. In that context, meaning "supporting 604". Oil and gas saved the Newfies. And it is gonna save us. Just wait and see. Gonna be a bit more difficult for us cause Newfoundland didn't have another level of government called First Nations to contend with.

Posted by: NMG on October 11 2007 7:34 PM

I like Ben's saying about "reality dictates". I think there are a couple of big realities with this situation:

1) Forestry will take a hit and it WILL impact PG in some manner. Time will tell how it impacts the City and the extent to which it does.

2) A City of roughly 80,000 people will not collapse and fall off the face of the map. Governments have invested too much in the area (and PG specifically over the last little while) to see that happen.

Just my opinion of course.