I think Pat Bell is trying to sell a good story based on his eternal hope as usual, but not the reality of real facts.

Real facts are that the American mortgage crisis is not supposed to really hit until this spring when all those bad sub-prime mortgages start to become due for principle payments and the jacked up interest rates (Greenspans bankster legacy). That’s when foreclosures are supposed to create the buying opportunities. With existing buying opportunities I don't see that helping the lumber market for new homes at all. Any supply taken off the market by Canadian forest companies will easily be made up for by others. Look at any lumber yard around and ask yourself, 'why so much wood in the yard'? How will all that wood cause the price to go up? I agree when the inventory starts to move the forest companies will show a profit, but when will the inventory start to move (being the only real indicator that counts)?

A comparison of the production in the second quarter verse the exports of that production in the second quarter would be a stat that I think would be very interesting.

I think Pat comes up with his predictions to give himself an out from having to take any responsibility for creating alternative solutions beyond cheerleading for team liberal and the next election.

Also housing starts went from 2.1 million to 1.3 million if looked at over 2 years and not just one year.

A dose of reality from real sources and not Pats imagination....

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=4505.2761.0.0

Pat Bell needs to open a window in his office....this is just the begining of this economic storm and not just for the forest industry. Does he really think that the mills are done cutting back yet? How long would anyone produce a product that you can't sell and make money at?....I'll be picking bottles this time next year I bet....

Right now the forest industry in general is feeling the effects of a combination of things such as the Can./U.S. dollar handicap,and the housing/mortgage issue in the U.S. etc.
And there will also be a serious downturn in the canadian housing industry in the not too distant future.
Next the mills will deal with the Mountian Pine Beetle issue here in Northern B.C.and that will cover a pretty wide area.
We haven't even begun to realize the full impact of that yet, but we sure as hell will within a year or two.
Things will get much worse before they ever get better for many small forestry based communities.
Alternative solutions need to be discussed now,not later,because this is unlike anything we have ever had to deal with in the past, and politicians like Pat Bell and his cohorts need to get their collective,overpaid heads out of their butts and start addressing that.
Right now,all you have to do is stand on the street corner in many of these same small communities and watch the logs being hauled out to somewhere else while local mills sit idle.
What does Pat Bell and company have to say about THAT??
That's right...NOTHING!

Bell is full of feces and his eyes are brown. What a maroon.

Looks like Bell just got the memo.. Old news.

Folks don't be so hard on Bell, he is only reading from the script hes been given, same as Bond.

Time for another televised "open Cabinet meeting", perhaps?

"Folks don't be so hard on Bell, he is only reading from the script hes been given, same as Bond."
-When our taxes are paying their salarys we can be as hard on them as we want.

Right on northman!
And if our "ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES" like Bell,Bond, and Rustad, don't soon wake up,they may just see their careers bottom out!

Sorry Pat, it has just begun. This will get worse before it gets better.

Dear Mr Bell

I am not sure how old your memo is,you need to plow a field or two. Way over produced, we are .... this is the worst market we have seen in my 22 years. You are virtually distroying the small lumberman, Abitibi is going down indifinitely @ Mackenzie, 2x4 is selling at $237 usd mill this morning, thats $206 mill before duty and wood chips into account,with chips the total is slightly higher, but wow, we have serious over production issues, way way way overproduced. Exports, you talk about WFM & Canfor virtually do nothing a little bit of J Grade, a touch of low grade, they have Zero focus , other than the domestic markets, I am confused Pat if your trying to promote the Liberals or what. Personally I don't thinky you could promote a Pollow fight.

I am already collecting bottles.
Wake up & get over it, pal.

Where does our forests minister stand in all this? Or do we need pat bell to take that roll on? he seems to be more vocal on the issues then rich coleman.

He's busy trying to put the best face on solving the problem of the homeless in downtown Vancouver. This whole government is no more than another Vancouver City Council, only operating across the pond. So don't expect anything from Rich Coleman that'll be of any benefit to anyone up here.

The ONLY thing that matters to this Liberal government IS Vancouver and the lower mainland!
They don't even know we are here most of the time...and the rest of the time,they don't give a damn,we are just a pain in the ass!
However,the key to getting their attention is to be an even BIGGER pain in the ass!
Oh wait,they WILL remember we are here before the next election when they start throwing money and handouts around in exchange for votes!
Hey...has anyone seen our Premier lately??

So what would this enlightened group of blogsters do given our situation? Besides the whining and bitching about the Olympics and Pat Bell.

Well, dow7500, maybe we could start by providing some 'economic security' to those most affected by the current, and quite possibly even greater coming, downturn. To do that we'll probably have to first impress on that "man from Glad" lookalike down in Victoria, the Premier of Vancouver, that it's his job to "listen" to us. Not start every speech he makes with, "Let me tell you..."

Good point socredible!
One of the principals of democracy is that the "elected representatives" at the top are supposed to spend some time listening to those at the bottom who in fact "elected" them.
We don't see much of that anymore.
What we actually have is fast approaching "dictatorship"by election.
At a time when the people who live in nothern B.C. are feeling the effects of a long predicted and long lasting downturn,those in the great Emerald city of Victoria really don't offer much support.
So...just where IS the Premier of Vancouver??

Socredible....thats your plan? Economic security? Are you suggesting welfare? please elaborate.

No, dow7500, not 'welfare' in the sense that it's generally viewed by most people at present. Where we try to 're-distribute' through 'taxation' what is presently already insufficient in its totality in the community, i.e. "money", or perhaps I should say, 'purchasing power'. That really does more harm than good, though to some that's not readily apparent.

We can never turn what is already an "insufficiency", (even in 'normal' times in virtually all instances now), into a "sufficiency" for any length of time by merely 're-distributing' it. If you cut the pie smaller and smaller when there are more eaters coming, everyone still gets a piece of pie, but they're all still starving. You find a way to bake a bigger and biger pie, until everyones's hunger is fully satiated.

The 'poor' aren't poor becauce the 'rich' are rich in any economic system where poverty, or lack of 'economic security', is primarily a purely 'financial' condition. And not actually a 'physical' one, as it might be in some countries which lack resources, and plant, and 'knowledge'. And whose citizens actually do have to exist at a subsistence level.

We don't lack for any of those three things in BC, or Canada, though it might be argued that the last, our "knowledge", when it comes to matters of 'Finance' in the manner we currently view them, isn't being fully utilized.

It is quite possible, in a 'physical' sense, for each citizen of this Province and Nation to have a far higher standard of living than we presently enjoy. Without plunging ourselves further into unrepayble debt. Without having to force our 'surplus' production on some other country, whether they want it or not, to try to get 'financial credit' from them. Without having 'full employment', and attempting to turn out "more" of everything that currently isn't wanted or needed, simply to provide a completely unnecessary excuse to give someone an income.

And without having to remove one dollar in 'redistributive taxation' from those who have already attained a standard of living here that they're more than satisfied with. Or anyone else.

Now I'm not going to outline anything more than the broadest description of how that can be accomplished, because it is necessary to elaborate far more than I can write here to gain a proper understanding of what's involved.

Basically, it involves a 'technique of credit', utilizing the Bank of Canada or some similar co-ordinating organization set up for the purpose.

And the establishment of a 'National', (or 'Provincial') accounting mechanism to constantly maintain a proper nexus between overall 'purchasing power' available to the general public as Consumers, and the overall 'price values' of all the consumable goods that general public needs and wants that could be produced, but currently are either not produced, or cannot be sold, due to a lack of "effective demand". (The inability of the would-be consumer to pay the price required.)

Consumer demand is the origin of all sane economic activity. We 'produce' to 'consume'. Primarily. Not to 'have a job', not to make a 'financial return'. These are entirely secondary to that primary purpose. Means to an end. Not the 'end' itself. Which is having what's needed and wanted available for 'consumption'.

But there is no use whatsoever in having a genuine consumer demand that COULD be filled, but cannot currently be met due solely to an overall lack of "money".

So we 'make' some "money". And we distribute it as necessary to provide that 'economic security'. And we do it in a way, which is entirely possible to do, that will not be 'inflationary'.

Unlike the way we currently try to do just that. By having an "Olympic Games". Or some other equally useless 'megaproject'. Which is purely 'inflationary', and which we'll end up paying for at least three times over.

Once through the 'rise in prices' that'll occur while it's being built.

Once more, at least, through taxes to meet the interest charged on the money borrowed.

And finally, maybe, if there's anything left to tax that isn't already being taxed by then, through more taxes to finally amortize the principal amount.

But what else could we expect from the singularly unimaginative Premier of Vancouver? And the sycophants that surround him?

Well, that question is too good to leave without answering. We'll expect him to tell us, he always 'tells' us, that we need to 'cut costs', 'work harder', and be 'more productive'.

Lets take them one at a time.

When the Business sector 'cuts costs', it's cutting current 'labor costs'. 'Incomes', for most of us.

It can't cut 'capital costs', that's money that it's already spent. So it reduces labor incomes, which are already insufficient in their totality to liquidate ALL the 'costs' in THEIR totality that are continually being impressed into the 'prices' of all the things those incomes are supposed to buy.

How is the Business sector going to be more profitable if it can't sell all its production for what it cost to make it? Which it won't be able to do if the incomes that would buy it are being continually reduced.

We should 'work harder'. Or 'longer'. For the same pay. Or less. Why? So we can be 'globally competitive'. With who, Bangladesh? Isn't the idea to have an 'increasing' standard of living? Which includes having "more" leisure time (paid unemployment), not "less".

"More productivity". Can we sell ALL we produce now? We can't? Then why do we want to produce still "more"? Oh, I know, "unit cost is a function of volume." Sure it is. But it's still the TOTAL cost of ALL the "units" that has to be CONSTANTLY liquidated to effect any ongoing 'cost-savings' whatsoever.

So the supermill at Houston bumps out 600 million BF a year. And lowers the cost of all the lumber Canfor produces by $ 4.50 per MBF. But what happens when there's only sale for 500 million BF a year of what's been cut? Where do the 'costs' go then? Or when you try to slow that 'supermill' down with the 'fixed costs', including the debt charges that built it, remaining constant no matter what it cuts? And this is the proposed pattern for the future of our forest industry?

Now isn't it interesting that those who always seem to be the most strident in their preaching of the virtues of "hard work" and "more of it", are usually those who've been released from the necessity of doing any of this "hard work" themselves.
Sure they've "made it", and we can admire them for it. But is it really necessary, I mean "REALLY" necessary, for all that follow to do the same under conditions that deny any real progress whatsoever?